The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves will start the Western Conference Finals with Game 1 on Tuesday. Only four teams remain in the 2025 NBA playoffs to determine a champion.
After a Round 1 sweep against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Thunder went the full seven games with the Denver Nuggets in Round 2. They dominated in a Game 7 win on Sunday and only had a day to cherish the franchise-altering victory.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are well-rested. They beat the Los Angeles Lakers in five games in Round 1. They did the same against the Golden State Warriors in Round 2 as Stephen Curry’s injury torpedoed any intrigue.
As the Thunder enter the Western Conference Finals as the favorites against the Timberwolves, here’s what our NBA Wire Roundtable predicted:
Clemente Almanza, Thunder Wire:
The Timberwolves are similarly constructed to the Thunder. They’re a defense-first squad that relies on their All-Star guard to carry most of the offensive load. That said, the Thunder are the more luxurious version. Expect these games to be low-scoring affairs. These are two of the NBA’s best defenses. Minnesota’s zone defense has given OKC fits this year. It will need to crack it like it did with Denver’s. Give me Gilgeous-Alexander and company over Edwards in a stressful Western Conference Finals series.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
Ben DuBose, Rockets Wire:
The Thunder are superior by all the metrics, but Minnesota could have an early advantage due to additional rest days. If the Timberwolves can steal a road win in Game 1 or Game 2, there’s a clear path to this being a long series. From a Rockets perspective, Minnesota was the team I least wanted to draw in the first round because their talent appeared far more dangerous than the record suggested. Their recent form suggests that could be the case.
This could be a sneaky competitive matchup, as Minnesota went 2-1 versus the Thunder in February and averaged 120 points in regulation — all without Julius Randle. In the semifinals versus the Warriors, Randle looked healthy and was arguably Minnesota’s best player.
Conversely, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (55.6%) and Chet Holmgren (66.7%) shot unsustainably high from 3-point range versus the Wolves, and those could be due for a course correction. Since most of the head-to-head meetings were close already, that could be a promising sign.
So, if you squint hard enough, there’s evidence this matchup is closer than what the season-long data (overwhelmingly tilted to OKC) suggests. But as with the Thunder-Nuggets semis, it’s hard to envision a team as loaded as Oklahoma City losing a home Game 7.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
Robert Marvi, LeBron Wire:
Although a few top-seeded teams have flamed out early in the playoffs, the Thunder are still roaring loudly. They seemed to come of age, to at least a certain extent, versus the Denver Nuggets, and now they will look to take the next step toward an NBA championship.
They will go up against a Minnesota team that forces opponents to play slowdown basketball and grind it out. Minnesota has a more formidable frontline, but the Thunder have more offensive firepower and arguably more depth.
The key in this series may be Jalen Williams, the Thunder’s budding star forward. The Timberwolves have the long, rangy defenders to give him fits, but if he plays well offensively, his team will likely prevail.
As well as Julius Randle has played for the Timberwolves lately, I don’t think they have the offensive firepower to win, especially since we’ll likely see mostly halfcourt basketball in this series.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
Ky Carlin, Sixers Wire:
This is where the Thunder might be tripped up. The Timberwolves made quick work of both the Lakers and the Warriors (albeit without Steph Curry) and they have been to this level of the playoffs before. Anthony Edwards is on a phenomenal run, Julius Randle is quieting a lot of critics, and even Rudy Gobert is making a difference. OKC will be able to combat a lot of their talent due to the fact that they have the league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and an elite defense, but I think the Timberwolves are on a magical type of run. I think Minnesota gets this done.
Prediction: Timberwolves in 6
Justin Quinn, Celtics Wire:
For me, this will boil down to a battle of size against length. What I mean by this is the series will likely be won by the team best able to deploy the clear edge they have on their opponent. We have seen these two Western Conference ball clubs play each other relatively closely over the last two seasons, and each have a distinctive approach to the game that can visibly bother the other enough to matter in a seven-game series.
For the Thunder, it is their length, and their elite defense it helps facilitate. We have seen how Anthony Edwards has responded poorly to opposing teams turning off his water in particular. And as good as Julius Randle has been in the postseason, will continue to be a positive option in such a scenario where he may be the only player able to create offense for his team?
On the other side of the court, the Thunder have struggled against size in the past, and while adding Isaiah Hartenstein has gone a long way toward solving those issues, playing a team that is able to play bigger, heftier, and sometimes both will be a marked change from what they have faced in the 2025 postseason so far.
For me, I think the glaring weakness that sticks out in the series is, ironically, that Minnesota has been playing 6-foot-0, 37-year-old Mike Conley 24 minutes a game in the playoffs to date. Unless they can find a way to hide him, I expect the Thunder to attack him mercilessly. That might be enough to tip what might otherwise be a very close series.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
