NCAA baseball tournament bracket predictions: Regional host projections, bid thieves, conferences to watch

Conference tournaments are in full swing in college baseball ahead of selection day May 26.

Two teams have already clinched automatic bids: Columbia in the Ivy League and Holy Cross in the Patriot League. So far, there are no sure bid thieves. But that could change, as UTSA (43-12, 23-4 American) has dropped to the losers bracket in the American tournament and would still receive a bid with a loss. Should UTSA get eliminated, Virginia (32-18, 16-11 ACC) would drop out of the bracket as the last team in after a loss to Boston College in the ACC tournament.

The SEC is likely to dominate the national seeds and hosting conversation. Six SEC teams project for national seeds and there are three others with hosting cases: Tennessee (43-15, 16-14 SEC), Alabama (41-16, 16-14 SEC) and Ole Miss (38-18, 16-14 SEC). The Vols helped themselves with a win over Texas in the SEC tournament, while Ole Miss gets the nod over Alabama here despite a worse RPI due to a stronger resume that includes 31 Quadrant 1 games, the most of anyone in tournament contention, and a 17-14 record in those games.

One intriguing conference tournament to watch is the Big East, where UConn (37-20, 17-4 Big East); Xavier (32-26, 14-7 Big East) and Creighton (40-14, 17-4 Big East) are all still alive. The three teams would each be on the bubble if they lose in their conference tournaments, but there’s a path for all three to get in. That’s especially true if Creighton wins the automatic bid, as the Bluejays’ RPI is the lowest of the three teams.

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Here is our projected field of 64:

NCAA baseball tournament projected host seeds

1. Texas
2. Arkansas
3. Vanderbilt
4. North Carolina
5. LSU
6. Georgia
7. Auburn
8. Clemson
9. Coastal Carolina
10. Oregon
11. Tennessee
12. Oregon State
13. Florida State
14. Georgia Tech
15. Ole Miss
16. Dallas Baptist

2025 NCAA baseball tournament bracket projections

Asterisks denote projected automatic bids. Projected autobids are given to the highest remaining seed in each conference’s tournament.

Seeding is in parentheses.

All projections as of games through May 22

Last Four In: Troy, Xavier, Arizona State, Virginia

First Four Out: Notre Dame, Western Kentucky, UT Rio Grande Valley, Cal Poly

Austin Regional

1. Texas* (1)
2. Texas-San Antonio*
3. Southern Cal
4. Houston Christian*

Dallas Regional

1. Dallas Baptist* (16)
2. Oklahoma
3. Oklahoma State
4. Oral Roberts*

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (8)
2. Florida
3. Rhode Island*
4. South Carolina Upstate*

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina* (9)
2. Wake Forest
3. UConn
4. Wright State*

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (4)
2. Northeastern*
3. Kentucky
4. Rider*

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (13)
2. Alabama
3. Troy
4. Bethune Cookman*

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (5)
2. TCU
3. Virginia
4. Long Island*

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (12)
2. UCLA
3. Arizona
4. Sacramento State

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (6)
2. Duke
3. East Tennessee State*
4. Bryant*

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (11)
2. NC State
3. Austin Peay*
4. Murray State*

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (7)
2. West Virginia
3. Miami
4. Columbia*

Eugene Regional

1. Oregon (10)
2. UC Irvine*
3. Arizona State
4. San Diego*

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (3)
2. Louisville
3. Cincinnati
4. Eastern Illinois*

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech* (14)
2. Mississippi State
3. Xavier
4. Miami-Ohio*

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (2)
2. Kansas
3. Creighton*
4. Nevada

Oxford Regional

1. Ole Miss (15)
2. Southern Miss
3. Kansas State
4. Holy Cross*

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X, formerly Twitter, @aria_gerson.

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