No other sport lends itself to a good “Cinderella” story like baseball. The game is too chaotic, and too unpredictable, which means that any given team can win any given game on any given day.
Nowhere is this truth more apparent than in the NCAA Tournament, where unexpected underdogs leave a big impression every single year. In fact, Tennessee became just the second No. 1 overall seed, and first since 1999, to win the College World Series last season. That’s how hard it is for a team that is expected to win it all, to actually win it all.
College baseball is often the opposite of chalk. Last season, Evansville came out of absolutely nowhere to make its first super regional appearance in program history, where it took one game against that national title-winning Vols squad. In 2022, Ole Miss went from the last team in the field of 64 to a national title. Nine years ago, Coastal Carolina rode a miracle run to a triumph against Arizona in the College World Series finals.
There’s always one team that vastly exceeds expectations once the tournament rolls around. In the spirit of the underdog, and with the start of the tournament just one day away, it felt appropriate to take a stab at identifying one potential “Cinderella” team from each of the 16 regionals.
For this article’s purposes, a “Cinderella” is defined as any team that is not hosting and has national title odds worse than +3500. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Nashville Regional
Cinderella: Louisville | National title odds: +10000
Louisville’s pitching might get it into some trouble — the Cardinals have a team ERA of 5.72, which ranks near the bottom among teams to qualify for the tournament — but the it does have the bats to keep up. Center fielder Lucas Moore is slashing .373/.470/.498 and has 46 stolen bases on the year. Freshman first baseman Tague Davis brings plenty of power with 18 home runs on the year, and all but two of Louisville’s consistent starters have a batting average of at least .300. Louisville may have a tough time putting runs on the board against a tough defensive team in Vanderbilt, but it can hit well enough to beat any team in the field.
Austin Regional
Cinderella: UTSA | National title odds: +20000
UTSA, which won a school-record 44 games and the American Athletic Conference regular season crown, is playing as an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history. The Roadrunners also boasted an RPI of 25 on Selection Monday thanks to an impressive résumé that includes midweek wins against Texas A&M and regional host Texas. UTSA boasts a potent offense that ranks top-20 nationally in batting average (.318 — the only AAC team with a batting average above .300), hits (615), on-base percentage (.429) and runs scored (502).
Fayetteville Regional
Cinderella: Kansas | National title odds: +20000
Kansas has a “Team of Destiny” sort of vibe. After a solid Jayhawks squad was left out of the 2024 tournament, they made themselves undeniable this season by winning a program-record 43 games. Kansas also had the best regular season win percentage in a Big 12 Conference that produced eight tournament teams. KU is one of the best power-hitting teams in the nation with a whopping 100 home runs on the year, which leads the Big 12, and six batters in its lineup have hit at least nine long balls. It’s going to be really hard to get out of Fayetteville, but Kansas is well worth keeping an eye on.
Auburn Regional
Cinderella: NC State | National title odds: +7500
Regarding NC State as an underdog is admittedly weird — the Wolfpack have been to two College World Series in the past four seasons — but a poor close to the year saw it tumble from the national seed conversation all the way out of hosting a regional. This is still a dangerous team that just needs to regain its stride. This is the same NC State, after all, that swept Clemson in April and took two games against Louisville in conference play.
Chapel Hill Regional
Cinderella: Oklahoma | National title odds: +9500
Oklahoma hasn’t made it out of a regional since 2022, when it made a run all the way to the College World Series finals. The Sooners are going to have a tough time breaking that streak this year — especially in a region that includes 5-seed North Carolina and Big Ten Tournament champion Nebraska — but they do boast a series win against top overall seed Vanderbilt and they have the pitching to stun some teams. Starter Kyson Witherspoon is electric. He’s pitched 91 innings to a 2.47 ERA and touts a whopping 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
Baton Rouge Regional
Cinderella: Dallas Baptist | National title odds: +4000
College baseball fans are familiar with Dallas Baptist. The Patriots have been an NCAA Tournament mainstay over the past decade and they consistently rank as one of the top mid-major programs in the nation. That being said, they’ve made it past the regional round just twice since 2011, and they have never gone to the College World Series. Having to potentially play LSU in Alex Box Stadium is a tough draw, but DBU’s offense is capable of giving a strong Tigers pitching staff some fits. The Patriots have hit 97 home runs and rank 21st nationally with 482 runs scored for a per game average of 8.6.
Athens Regional
Cinderella: Oklahoma State | National title odds: +16000
Oklahoma State narrowly made the field after salvaging its season with three straight series victories and a much-needed Big 12 Tournament win against Baylor. Lost amid the Cowboys’ struggles is the fact that they have a quality pitching staff — one they will have to lean on in the postseason, given their offense’s inconsistency. Harrison Bodendorf, the 2025 Big 12 Co-Newcomer of the Year, is a lefty with a weird delivery that can give opposing hitters fits. He’s 10-1 in his 15 starts with a 2.77 ERA. Depending on when he starts this weekend, he could be what Oklahoma State needs to tip a pivotal game in its favor.
Corvallis Regional
Cinderella: TCU | National title odds: +3900
TCU is a “Cinderella” in the sense that it didn’t get to host — though many think the Horned Frogs should be playing at home — and because its national title odds are outside the top 10. TCU is one of just two Big 12 teams to rank top three in the conference in batting average (.300) and ERA (4.24, best in the Big 12). The Horned Frogs’ one through six hitters all have a batting average of at least .320. They don’t hit a ton of home runs (66 on the year) but they do have a .478 slugging percentage and 29 triples. They’re going to be a tough out at any stage of the tournament.
Tallahassee Regional
Cinderella: Northeastern | National title odds: +5000
Northeastern might be the worst-kept secret in baseball at this point. Its national title odds have ballooned in the past few days as more and more bettors catch on to the Huskies. They’re the only team in the nation with a sub-3.00 ERA. The starting trio of Will Jones, Jordan Gottesman and Aiven Cabral have surrendered a combined 60 earned runs on the year. They’ve also beaten Kansas State, an NCAA Tournament team, twice, UConn, a team that just missed out on the NCAA Tournament, twice and they split a pair of games against Boston College. Believe the hype.
Oxford Regional
Cinderella: Western Kentucky | National title odds: +20000
If you like offense, the Oxford Regional will be appointment viewing. The Hilltoppers are definitely bringing the bats to Mississippi. They led Conference USA with a .315 batting average to go with 468 total runs and a team OPS of .927. But they’re not just an offensive team. They’ve got the best ERA of teams in the Oxford Regional, led by Jack Bennett, who has allowed less than three earned runs in five of his last six starts.
Clemson Regional
Cinderella: West Virginia | National title odds: +10000
West Virginia set program records with 41 total wins and 19 conference wins while capturing the Big 12 regular season title. The Mountaineers have a potent one-two punch near the top of their batting order in Kyle West, who has a 1.129 OPS with a team-high 10 home runs, and Sam White, who is hitting at a .353 clip. West Virginia’s 4.28 team ERA also ranks 21st nationally, so this is a very well-rounded team that’s a serious threat to get to the supers.
Eugene Regional
Cinderella: Arizona | National title odds: +6500
Arizona is scorching-hot when it matters most. The Wildcats swept the Big 12 Tournament and have not allowed more than one run in each of their last four games. They’ve also lost just one series since the start of May and they’re 6-1 in their past seven contests with an average margin of victory of 5.2 runs. Momentum matters in baseball, and Arizona has it in spades.
Conway Regional
Cinderella: East Carolina | National title odds: +16000
I was tempted to pick Florida, but that seems to go against the spirit of a “Cinderella” team, given that the Gators have the 12th-best national title odds and are 17th in RPI. So that leaves East Carolina, a team that regional host Coastal Carolina is very familiar with, as the logical pick. Though the Pirates, fresh off an AAC Tournament win, are going to have a tough time beating Florida, and they’ve already dropped a series to Coastal this year, but pitcher Ethan Norby — who had 19 strikeouts in 7.1 innings against Coastal Carolina on March 7 — gives ECU a chance against most teams.
Knoxville Regional
Cinderella: Cincinnati | National title odds: +20000
Wake Forest seems like an obvious pick here given its modern success, but Cincinnati might actually be a tougher matchup for regional host Tennessee for one reason: the Bearcats have stolen 128 bases this year, third-most among NCAA Tournament teams. The Vols have been pretty bad defensively all season long, especially against teams that wreak havoc on the base paths. Cincinnati also touts the Big 12 Player of the Year in Kerrington Cross, who carries a .399 batting average with 12 home runs into the tournament. Cincinnati will have the green light anytime it gets on base in Knoxville. That could be what’s needed to carry it to an upset, provided it gets to Tennessee.
Los Angeles Regional
Cinderella: UC Irvine | National title odds: +10000
UC Irvine split two games against USC, won a series against Texas Tech, swept Cal Poly in the regular season and beat Los Angeles Regional host UCLA in a midweek contest. That’s a very strong résumé for a team out of the Big West. The Anteaters have three batters with an OPS above 1.000 and a solid bullpen with standouts like Ricky Ojeda and Max Martin keeping things under control.
Hattiesburg Regional
Cinderella: Alabama | National title odds: +7500
Little ole Alabama. All the Crimson Tide did was amass a combined 20 Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins while finishing with an RPI of 13, the highest among non-regional hosts in the NCAA Tournament. The top of their batting order, anchored by studs like Kade Snell, Justin Lebron and Richie Bonomolo Jr., could go toe-to-toe with any in the country and they’ve got a powerful pitching staff. Riley Quick, in particular, is a name that’s rocketing up draft boards as June approaches. The 6-foot-6 righty is 7-2 as a starter and he punched out nine batters in a May 3 win against Vanderbilt.
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