NCAA Baseball Tournament Projection 2.0: Vanderbilt Falls Out of Top 16

Vanderbilt getting swept at home by No. 2 Arkansas has some consequences. For one, the Commodores took a pretty big tumble down in the D1 Baseball Top 25 Rankings, going from No. 14 to No. 23 (the fall wasn’t as far in Baseball America’s rankings, just two spots to No. 16).

It also showed the Commodores’ struggles at the plate after scoring just seven run on 20 hits. Another, much less meaningful consequence, is the impact the series had on Vanderbilt’s placement in my NCAA Baseball Tournament projection.

A week ago, Vanderbilt was one of the top 16 teams, meaning Hawkins Field would host another NCAA regional. In this week’s bracket projection, the Commodores have to hit the road. You can see the full, 64-team projection below. The SEC leads the way with a whopping 13 teams, followed by the ACC with eight, the Big 12 with seven, and the Big Ten with three.

Here’s a quick explanation of my methodology used to make this bracket and the simplest way to explain is this is more of a snapshot than projection. I use the D1Baseball Top 25 Ranking to determine the national seeds and use that as my starting 25 teams. I then use the current conference standings to determine who receives automatic bids and do a bit of math looking teams’ RPI, strength of schedule, overall record, and when the choices get really tough, I’ll even look up their Quad 1, 2, 3 and 4 records.

That helps me get some kind of order to the madness and I was left with 17 at-large bids to hand out (excluding at-large bids to teams already ranked in the top 25). From there, I follow a similar process to make a list of teams and rank them based on the same criteria as the automatic bid teams. After that it’s just a “simple” process of placing everyone in a NCAA Regional.

It’s a fun exercise meant to provide everyone with a view of where the season stands. Here are a few of my notes and thoughts related to specific details in this week’s bracket:

And without any further ado, here’s this week’s projected NCAA Baseball Tournament:

2025 NCAA Division I Baseball Postseason Schedule

2025 SEC Tournament: May 20-25, 2025 , at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium, Hoover, Ala.
Selection show: May 26 at 11 p.m. CT, ESPN2 or ESPNU
Regionals:May 30-June 2
Super Regionals: June 6-9
Men’s College World Series: Begins June 13 at Charles Schwab Field Omaha in Omaha, Neb.
Finals: June 21-22/23

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