NCAA Baseball Tournament: Who’s in, who’s out in the SEC as of April 22

We’re just over a month away from the start of the NCAA Baseball Tournament. The field of 64 will be officially revealed on Monday, May 26.

SEC baseball has been impressive to the definition of the word this season. Anybody can beat anybody, as South Carolina, Texas A&M and Kentucky proved this past weekend. As a result, we’re more than likely to see double-digit SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season.

Who’s safe for a spot in the postseason, who has some work to do and, perhaps most importantly, who is in line to host a regional when it’s all said and done? Here’s a look at the 4 tiers of the SEC as we near the NCAA Tournament.

Hosting

Just because a team isn’t on this list, it doesn’t mean they won’t necessarily host a regional. By my count, there are 8 or 9 programs who I’d say have a greater likelihood than not to host and potentially move onward to the College World Series.

However, there is a lot of baseball left to be played. Here are the programs that look to be surefire hosts come late May.

1. Texas

• 33-5, 16-2 SEC
• Upcoming Series: vs. Texas A&M

Texas been the best team in baseball this season, and it hasn’t been particularly close. The Longhorns are a blistering 16-2 in SEC play during their first year in the conference and 10-1 vs. top 25 opponents. A pair of Texas’s losses came in midweek contests.

Texas is fresh off a 3-0 sweep of Auburn — a top-15 team in the country — thanks to a strong outing from Kimble Schuessler. But while the Longhorns are no slouches offensively, their dominance comes from their endless supply of arms. Jared Spencer, Ruger Riojas and Luke Harrison make up one of the best starting rotations in baseball, and Dylan Volantis is probably the best reliever in the SEC as only a freshman.

Texas leads the country in hits allowed per 9 innings and comes in behind only Western Kentucky in overall ERA at 2.94.

2. LSU

• 34-7, 12-6 SEC
• Upcoming Series: vs. Tennessee

LSU has been near perfect at home this season, falling only twice to Texas for a 25-2 overall record in Baton Rouge. Keep that in mind when the Tigers host Tennessee this weekend.

The Tigers have been impressive this season, but fell to the 2 best opponents they’ve faced thus far: Texas and Auburn. Definitely something to keep note of. The Auburn Tigers swept LSU, but LSU bounced back with a solid 2-1 series win over Alabama last weekend.

3. Arkansas

• 34-7, 13-5 SEC
• Upcoming Series: vs. Florida

The Razorbacks are losing traction heading into a weekend series in Gainesville. Dave Van Horn’s group has lost 2 straight series (Georgia, Texas A&M — both 1-2), but looked particularly lost in their past matchups against Texas A&M in Fayetteville.

While it hasn’t been pretty, I’m not sure the term “collapse” is appropriate quite yet. Arkansas and Georgia played a very close series and both Razorbacks losses came by just 1 run. Texas A&M, as we’ll cover further down the page, is in the middle of a complete turnaround and looks really good heading into the final weeks of the regular season, so that loss is forgivable from a certain point of view. At some point though, Arkansas has to find some offensive consistency outside of Wehiwa Aloy and Charles Davalan. “We were close” only works if it followed by some actual results, Hogs.

All that being said, it’s not getting easier any time soon. The Razorbacks will certainly have chances to prove themselves. The Razorbacks finish the season Florida, vs. Texas, vs. LSU and at Tennessee.

4. Tennessee

• 33-7, 12-6 SEC
• Upcoming Series: at LSU

Tennessee is a little broken right now. The defending national champs ran through their early schedule, scoring series wins over Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss, but fell to Texas A&M and, more recently, Kentucky. Now, they enter the toughest part of their schedule with the bats falling asleep and several question marks being raised with the starting pitching rotation apart from superstar Liam Doyle.

The Vols can still rake with the best of them, though. Tennessee’s slugging percentage is top 10 in the country and 3rd in the SEC, slightly behind only Arkansas and Georgia. Only the Bulldogs have hit more home runs than Tennessee. The power is there, but it means nothing if the Vols can’t find some consistency in big moments.

5. Vanderbilt

• 30-10, 11-7 SEC
• Upcoming Series: at Ole Miss

Vanderbilt just turned in a fantastic performance against Georgia and looked as good as it has all season. JD Thompson set the vibe on Friday with a Herculean 14-strikeout performance, leading the Commodores to a tight 3-1 win. Saturday’s win could not have been any different. This time the Vandy Boys saw 13 runs cross the plate, 7 of which were driven in by Brodie Johnston (3 hits, 2 HRs, 3 runs).

But while the Commodores have excelled at home, they’ve “struggled” in comparison on the road with a 7-5 record. They’ll test their efficacy on the road this weekend against Ole Miss.

6. Georgia

• 33-9, 10-8 SEC
• Upcoming Series: vs. Oklahoma

Georgia is right on the line of Hosting/Safe for me, partly thanks to Vanderbilt’s shocking series sweep this past weekend. But with a favorable schedule upcoming (by SEC standards) and a batting order that absolutely rakes, I have a good feeling about this Georgia squad. The Bulldogs have hit the most home runs in the country (105) and the bats can get hot at any time. Unfortunately, Georgia’s pitching just is what it is at this point, and it could be their downfall come June.

Not to mention, the Bulldogs are kind of home merchants. Georgia is 24-2 at Foley Field, but an underwhelming 6-7 on the road.

Safe

These are the teams that should feel safe about a spot in the postseason as of April 22.

7. Oklahoma

• 29-10, 10-8 SEC
• Upcoming Series: at Georgia

Kyson Witherspoon and the Oklahoma bullpen can sling it, and Oklahoma is playing its best baseball of the season as a result. The Sooners are fresh off back-to-back series wins over Vanderbilt and Missouri, but they’ll have their hands full against the most high-powered offense in the conference this weekend. If the Sooners can keep this momentum going there’s no reason postseason baseball won’t be played in Norman.

8. Auburn

• 27-13, 9-9 SEC
• Upcoming Series: vs. Mississippi State

Auburn is another team that could definitely be hosting when it’s all said than done. The Tigers have a very impressive body of work that includes series wins over Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Kentucky, but they were also swept by Georgia and Texas. On top of that, Auburn’s road record leaves a lot to be desired at 4-8 on the season.

Tennessee and Ole Miss will present some challenges, especially with both series being on the road. But on the other side of the coin the Tigers get Mississippi State and South Carolina at home, and should have no trouble in either of those series. The Tigers are incredibly balanced offensively — 5 players have between 40-50 hits and 8-11 home runs on the year — which at times has had to pick up the slack for a bottom half SEC pitching unit.

9. Ole Miss

• 28-12, 10-8 SEC
• Upcoming Series: vs. Vanderbilt

Talk about exceeding expectations! The Rebels, picked 15th in the SEC preseason poll, boast wins over Kentucky and Florida, and almost picked up a massive win against Tennessee a few weeks ago in what was an excellent series.

There are some worries with Ole Miss, most of them offensively. The Rebels put up just 2 runs in back-to-back games last weekend against South Carolina before taking Game 3 with 12 runs. Outfielders Ethan Petry and Nathan Hall have been great at the plate this year, but there’s just not much to write home about further down the order.

10. Alabama

• 31-10, 9-9 SEC
• Upcoming Series: vs. Mizzou

Alabama is in a similar boat compared to Auburn. Led by Justin Lebron, the Crimson Tide are balanced offensively and lack consistent arms against the top foes of the SEC. The Tide were able to grab a win in a 1-2 series loss to LSU this past weekend.

Alabama doesn’t quite have the résumé that Auburn does, however. The Tide beat Texas A&M earlier in the year, but also fell to Mississippi State (1-2), Auburn, Tennessee and LSU. Their only home series win of SEC play came against Oklahoma, though that should change this weekend against a struggling Mizzou squad.

Bubble

Roll the dice for these teams. Some are hotter than others, but it could go either way for the following 4 SEC programs entering late April.

11. Texas A&M

• 23-16, 8-10 SEC
• Upcoming Series: at Texas

I would listen to the argument for Texas A&M hosting a regional when it’s all said and done. That’s how well Texas A&M is playing right now. The preseason No. 1 Aggies finally seem to have hit their stride after a putrid start to the year, having won 9 of their last 10 including series wins over Tennessee and Arkansas.

Texas A&M is legitimately tripping over talent on offense. Of course, there’s Jace LaViolette — who hit 4 home runs and posted 7 RBI against Arkansas this past weekend — but Wyatt Henseler and Kaeden Kent can get similarly hot at a moment’s notice.

The Aggies are playing some ball right now, but they’ll have to contend against Texas, LSU and Georgia in coming weeks.

12. Kentucky

• 22-15, 8-10 SEC
• Upcoming series: vs. South Carolina

While Texas A&M and Vanderbilt would disagree, Kentucky might have had the best past weekend of any team in the conference. The Wildcats improved to 8-10 in SEC play with a simply massive road win over Tennessee.

And boy, did the Wildcats need it. Kentucky was within striking distance against Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Texas, losing all 3 series 1-2 with the deciding game being decided by just 1 run. Kentucky is not a power hitting team. Cole Hage is the only Wildcat with more than 5 home runs on the year. But their pitching has kept them in every series they’ve played this year. With a favorable schedule upcoming and a series win in Knoxville under their belt, I’d say it’s more likely than not that the Wildcats will be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

13. Florida

• 27-15, 6-12 SEC
• Upcoming Series: vs. Arkansas

Every team including Florida and lower on this list has legitimate reason to worry heading into the final weeks of the regular season.

The Gators just have not lived up to the hype this year, but they still have some life after a putrid start to conference play. The Gators were swept by Tennessee and Georgia, then lost 1-2 to Ole Miss. Then they went right back to being swept, this time by Vanderbilt. Since then the Gators have picked up needed series wins over Mississippi State and Mizzou, but that’s not going to convince anyone of anything when asking for a spot in the postseason.

First order of business: Find a reliable Sunday starter.

14. Mississippi State

• 24-16, 6-12 SEC
• Upcoming Series: at Auburn

Mississippi State and Florida met in a crucial series last week and Florida came out on top. In other words, the Bulldogs are running out of opportunities fast and need a massive turnaround if they are to reach the NCAA Tournament.

Pico Kohn and Ace Reese give this team hope — and the Bulldogs bullpen is actually really solid. But good numbers have to translate to wins in a hurry. It starts this weekend against Auburn, a team playing incredible baseball at home so far this season.

Better Luck Next Year

Barring a miracle or serious change of pace, these teams will be missing out on the postseason this year.

15. South Carolina

• 23-18, 4-14 SEC
• Upcoming Series: at Kentucky

South Carolina is fresh off a 2-1 weekend victory over Ole Miss, but it’s hardly time to start celebrating in Columbia. The Gamecocks have won just 4 SEC contests and would need to win about 9 of their remaining 12 SEC matchups to even think about a shot in the postseason.

16. Missouri

• 13-26, 0-18 SEC
• Upcoming Series: at Alabama

I’d say Missouri is trying its best, but to be honest I’m just not sure that’s true. The Tigers are the only team in the SEC that has not been competitive all season, and they’ve been swept by all 5 SEC teams they’ve faced.

Yes, you read that conference record correctly. The lone bright spot for the Tigers has been Jackson Lovich, who has 8 home runs and 45 hits on the season. For obvious reasons, Missouri will be waiting until next season for a shot in the postseason.