Nebraska and Boston College meet in the 2024 edition of the Pinstripe Bowl. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from a football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Nebraska qualified for its first bowl game since the 2016 season, ending the school’s longest absence from the postseason since 1961, and is hoping to finish the year above .500.
Boston College changed quarterbacks midseason, swapping Thomas Castellanos for Grayson James, but still ranked just 106th among 134 FBS teams in total passing production.
What do the analytics suggest for when the Cornhuskers and Eagles meet in the postseason?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Nebraska and Boston College compare in college football’s Pinstripe Bowl game.
So far, the models are siding with the Big Ten school over the ACC challenger in the Bronx, but by a very narrow margin.
SP+ predicts that Nebraska will defeat Boston College by a projected score of 24 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 1.7 points.
The model gives the Cornhuskers a close 54 percent chance of outright victory over the Eagles.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.
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Nebraska is a 3.5 point favorite against Boston College, according to the new lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.
FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).
And it set the moneyline odds for Nebraska at -164 and for Boston College at +136 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
Most bettors expect the Cornhuskers will handle the Eagles when looking over the updated spread consensus picks for the game.
Nebraska is getting 61 percent of bets to win the game and cover the point spread.
The other 39 percent of wagers project Boston College will either win outright in an upset, or keep the game to a field goal or less in a loss.
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Most other analytical football models also favor the Cornhuskers over the Eagles, and also by a very narrow margin.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Nebraska is projected to win the football game in 50.5 percent of the computer simulations.
That leaves Boston College as the presumptive winner in the remaining 49.5 percent of sims.
How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for the game?
Nebraska is projected to be just 0.1 points better than Boston College on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
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Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
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When: Sat., Dec. 28
Where: New York, N.Y.
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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