The New York Yankees (35-20) and the LA Dodgers (34-22) open a 3-game set Friday in a rematch of the 2024 World Series. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Dodgers beat Yankees 4-1 in last year’s World Series and 2-1 in regular season
The Yankees have won 5 straight games and are coming off a 3-game sweep at the Los Angeles Angels. They wrapped up the set with a 1-0 victory as -159 favorites Wednesday with the Under (8.5) cashing. SP Clarke Schmidt allowed just 4 hits and 1 walk with 4 K’s in 6 shutout innings in the finale, improving to 2-2 on the season.
The Dodgers won 2 of 3 games at the Cleveland Guardians, but failed to complete the sweep with a 7-4 loss as -170 favorites Wednesday with the Over (8.5) hitting. LA had a 93.3% win probability, according to ESPN Analytics, while leading 4-1 in the bottom of the seventh inning Wednesday — but gave up 5 runs in the eighth.
The Dodgers acquired RP Alexis Díaz from the Cincinnati Reds Thursday in exchange for minor league RP Mike Villani. The former All-Star closer has allowed 8 earned runs over 6 innings in 6 relief appearances this season.
In last year’s World Series, LA won the first 3 games by 2 or more runs (6-3 in 10 innings, 4-2, 4-2). New York responded with an 11-4 win in Game 4, but the Dodgers clinched the series with a 7-6 victory in the finale. The Over went 3-2 and hit in the final 2 games.
Yankees at Dodgers projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Tony Gonsolin
Fried (7-0, 1.29 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 70 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 13-1 victory at Colorado Rockies Saturday
- 2025 road stats: 4-0, 0.83 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.89 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 5 starts
- 2024 vs. Dodgers: 0-2, 4.85 ERA (13 IP, 7 ER), 6 H, 6 BB, 14 K in 2 starts with Atlanta Braves
- Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 3-4, 3.18 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 in 10 starts with Braves
Gonsolin (2-1, 4.68 ERA) makes his sixth start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 25 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-2 defeat at New York Mets Saturday
- 2025 home stats: 1-0, 6.30 ERA (10 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 5 BB, 12 K in 2 starts
- Missed start of season with back injury suffered in spring training; missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery
- Career vs. Yankees: 1 home start (Aug. 24, 2019), win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 2-1 victory
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Yankees at Dodgers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:38 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Dodgers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+140) | Dodgers +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -102 | U: -118)
Yankees at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Dodgers 5
NEW YORK (-120) should get revenge after being dominated in last year’s World Series.
The Yankees are sending out the MLB leader in ERA in Fried, while the Dodgers counter with Gonsolin, who has allowed 4 earned runs in back-to-back starts.
LA is just 3-5 straight up as a home underdog since 2021, which shows how rarely the Dodgers are in this role — just the ninth time in 5 seasons — and how strongly the market views them as outmatched here.
BET YANKEES (-120).
The 30-cent straddle in this market is too high.
PASS on the run line.
The Over has hit in 3 straight Dodgers games and 5 of the last 7 meetings dating back to last year’s regular season. With Gonsolin on the mound — having allowed 8 runs over 9 innings in his last 2 starts — and 2 of MLB’s top 3 offenses squaring off, the Over looks like the right play in this matchup.
BET OVER 9 (-102).
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