NFL Divisional Round game picks: Top-seeded Lions and Chiefs avoid upsets; Ravens or Bills in epic tilt?

NOTE: The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 16.

SATURDAY, JAN. 18

Why Gennaro picked the Chiefs: Both teams annoyed us during the regular season, but there are levels to this. The back-to-back reigning champion Chiefs won 15 of their first 16 games, took a ninth straight division title and clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed on Christmas. And yet, they caught flak for the way they won, often playing with their food before eating a W. Compare that to the Texans, who won five of their first six games … then underwhelmed for the better part of three months to ultimately take the AFC’s worst division almost by default. Owning a quintessentially average point differential of ZERO, Houston opened the playoffs as a home underdog — or, as some opined, a “bye week” for the visiting Chargers.

Here’s the interesting part, though: DeMeco Ryans’ group impressively rallied on Wild Card Weekend, smashing the Bolts, 32-12, while showcasing the kind of suffocating pass rush that could exploit Kansas City’s well-documented protection issues. Furthermore, the Texans played a tight game against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium less than a month ago. So, what’s stopping me from predicting Houston will flip the script on Saturday?

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City’s head coach boasts a remarkable career record of 32-7 after a bye, leading me to believe that, yes, he will have a plan to stymie edge monsters Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. As for the Chiefs’ quarterback? Well, this is the time of year when the man’s fully locked in. Just ask him about this past Sunday, when his wife gave birth to the couple’s third child.

“It was cool that football was on TV when I was in the hospital, so I got to watch a little bit,” Mahomes said. “Brittany was kind enough to let us watch football as she was getting ready to give birth to our second daughter.”

Why Brooke picked the Lions: The Lions bring some serious momentum into this contest after routing the Vikings last time out to earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Jared Goff is playing the best football of his career, seamlessly operating Ben Johnson’s offense to carry the Lions to the top of the NFL in scoring and the No. 2 spot in total offense and passing. Detroit has breezed through most of its opponents but now runs into a Dan Quinn-led team that could pose some problems. For starters, Goff is 0-2 with one TD and six giveaways in his two games with Detroit against Quinn (when he was Dallas’ defensive coordinator). Washington also possesses the league’s third-ranked pass defense and a run defense that hasn’t necessarily been great but leveled up to limit a top-five Bucs rushing attack in its wild-card win. Containing running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who’s expected to play for the first time in over a month, will be the key for the Commanders if they want to keep this one close. Doing so would also stall Detroit’s lethal play-action attack, an aspect Washington must keep under wraps. Per Next Gen Stats, Goff led the league with nearly 2,000 pass yards and 14 touchdowns (tied) on play-action passes this season, while Washington allowed the second-fewest pass yards (873) and four pass TDs on play-action. It’ll be a long day for the Commanders if Goff syncs up regularly with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams downfield.

If Quinn’s unit can slow Goff and Co. at all, there’s a real chance Washington will keep this one close, thanks to one guy: rookie sensation Jayden Daniels. The dynamic QB has been impeccable on the road this year, ranking in the top five among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (73.8), TD-to-INT ratio (12:2), passer rating (108.5), rush yards (378) and rush TDs (four). Washington’s ability to control the clock and move the chains with its rushing attack — and Detroit’s ability to limit it — will prove to be a huge factor. Daniels will likely do his thing and make plays with his legs on designed runs and scrambles for first downs. However, it’s imperative that the unit receives notable production from running backs Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. A Commanders RB has not had more than 70 rush yards in a game since the team’s Week 14 bye. That cannot continue this weekend if they hope to advance.

In conclusion, I can see Daniels and his cool demeanor keeping this one close for a while, but Washington feels a step behind what Detroit has built over the last few years. Dan Campbell’s Lions are simply too dominant to let down this early in their postseason quest.

SUNDAY, JAN. 19

Why Dan picked the Eagles: There is an unquantifiable grit to this Rams team, which was on display yet again in a blowout of the Vikings to close out Wild Card Weekend. That’s part of what makes it hard to pick against them. They are well-coached, have a Super Bowl-winning quarterback leading them and their young defense seems to have found its footing. But no, I don’t smell an upset brewing. Matthew Stafford has won each of his last six starts since, well, losing to the Eagles 37-20 at SoFi Stadium in Week 12. We might be going back to the future on Sunday because, while I do believe Los Angeles’ defense has improved, I don’t think it’s going to be enough to close the gap between the two teams. The Eagles had the league’s No. 1 total defense and pass defense in 2024, and they ranked second in rushing offense. The Rams ranked 26th, 20th and 24th in those categories, respectively.

So, as long as Jalen Hurts keeps doing what he’s been doing as an efficient manager of the Philly offense — which is the opposite of what the Rams encountered with Sam Darnold in meltdown mode on Monday night — the Eagles should punch their ticket to the NFC Championship Game. Hurts leads the NFL with a 16:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio since Week 6, including the postseason, and has the second-longest active streak without an INT of any QB remaining in playoffs. If Sean McVay’s defense plays with the kind of energy it had against Minnesota, anything is possible. The Eagles are 10-0 this season when Hurts has an active A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to throw to, though. I don’t expect that streak to come to a screeching halt on Sunday.

Why Tom picked the Ravens: I just have a feeling about Lamar Jackson — call it a hunch, really — based on him being one of the best football players on the planet right now. The fact that this seems like something of a risky choice says a lot about the Bills, who are healthy and led by Josh Allen, one of the few people who could reasonably block Jackson from winning his second consecutive (and third overall) MVP. There is also Buffalo’s utter dominance at Highmark Stadium, even beyond this season’s 8-0 record there: Going back through 2020, the Bills boast the NFL’s best combined home winning percentage (.820) and point differential (a stunning mark of 577), including the playoffs. There are many reasons not to read too much into Baltimore’s 35-10 pasting of Buffalo in Week 4 (including the absences in that game of key Bills defenders Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson), but the biggest mitigating factor might be the Maryland setting.

The reality of sharing time and space with Patrick Mahomes is that basically every other AFC QB’s playoff résumé looks kind of light. Even so, Jackson’s ledger is littered with duds. Out of six postseason appearances heading into 2024, he’d logged just one victory in which he scored multiple TDs without turning the ball over, something Allen did many times before this season. The historical record is real. But this pick is more about the current moment, when things seem to be coalescing around Jackson as well as they ever have. The defense has held six of Baltimore’s last seven opponents to 285 yards or fewer. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken has shown he clearly knows how to maximize Jackson in Year 2 of their partnership, though I would feel better if I knew receiver Zay Flowers were playing at full strength after missing the Wild Card Round with a knee injury. And Derrick Henry will be there to help make life as difficult as possible on Buffalo’s 12th-ranked run D.

At the end of the day, of course, it comes back to the QB, who became the only player in NFL history to top 4,000 passing yards, 40 passing TDs and 900 rushing yards in the same season. (I know statistical achievements can sometimes be easy to gloss over, but those are worth looking back over and sitting with for a minute, because those are potentially once-in-a-generation numbers.) As far as high-stakes showcases go, this clash between two of the best teams in the playoff field screams “LEGACY-DEFINER!” Jackson is already a premier star of our era, and I’m ready to go all in on him pulling off that signature postseason triumph.