We’ve reached the finish line of the 2024 regular season with Week 18 upon us. Some clubs will put a bow on the season before heading off into the offseason, while others will get their ducks in a row as they gear up for the playoffs. That creates a fascinating situation as it relates to the betting lines for these matchups. Because teams are in such different situations at this time of the year, the motivations for each organization are wildly different.
Teams setting up for a playoff run with their seeding locked in will likely opt to rest their star players like the Kansas City Chiefs are reported to do vs. Denver. On the other hand, some teams still have plenty to play for, like the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions, who are duking it out for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed on Sunday night.
With that in mind, these odds may look a bit different than the ones we’ve grown accustomed to throughout the season, but we’ll make note of them in our more detailed breakdown below. Before we do that, let’s take a gander at these early lines to see how the oddsmakers think the final week will shake out.
Week 18 early odds
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ravens -17.5 |
42.5 |
Browns +980, Ravens -1754 |
|
|
Bengals -2.5 |
48.5 |
Bengals -147, Steelers +124 |
|
|
Titans -4.5 |
36.5 |
Texans +173, Titans -211 |
|
|
Packers -9.5 |
40.5 |
Bears +315, Packers -405 |
|
|
Colts -5.5 |
45 |
Jaguars +189, Colts -229 |
|
|
Bills -2.5 |
40.5 |
Bills -136, Patriots +115 |
|
|
Falcons -7.5 |
47.5 |
Panthers +339, Falcons -441 |
|
|
Saints at Buccaneers |
Buccaneers -14 |
43.5 |
Saints +628, Buccaneers -952 |
|
Commanders -3 |
45.5 |
Commanders -163, Cowboys +138 |
|
|
Eagles -3.5 |
38.5 |
Giants +144, Eagles -172 |
|
|
Chiefs at Broncos |
Broncos -9.5 |
39 |
Chiefs +377, Broncos -500 |
|
Seahawks -2.5 |
41.5 |
Seahawks -122, Rams +102 |
|
|
49ers -1 |
46.5 |
49ers -115, Cardinals -105 |
|
|
Dolphins -2.5 |
41.5 |
Dolphins -138, Jets +116 |
|
|
Chargers -5.5 |
41 |
Chargers -242, Raiders +198 |
|
|
Vikings at Lions |
Lions -2.5 |
52.5 |
Vikings +127, Lions -151 |
Notable movement, trends
Browns at Ravens (Saturday)
This is the biggest spread on the Week 18 slate, as the Ravens are currently laying a whopping 17.5 points at home against the Browns. That’s up from the opening line of Baltimore -5. With a win, the Ravens would lock up the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the AFC, so there is plenty of motivation for them in this game, even after already clinching a playoff spot. If they lose, the Steelers could leap ahead of them in the division if they win later on Saturday.
The Ravens are just 3-3-1 ATS at home this season but do have an average margin of victory in the double digits (10.4) in those games. They shouldn’t face much resistance from a Browns team that is 2-6 ATS on the road this year.
Bengals at Steelers (Saturday)
Both the Bengals and Steelers have motivation to treat this game with ferocity with playoff positioning on the line. For Cincinnati, it needs to win to keep the small chance of sneaking into the playoffs alive. Meanwhile, the Steelers have already clinched a playoff berth, but if the Ravens fall to the Browns earlier in the day, they would be playing for the AFC North division.
Cincinnati has been the best team to back on the road this season, owning a league-best 7-1 ATS record away from Paycor Stadium. That includes a perfect 5-0 ATS record as a road favorite. However, the Steelers have been stout at home, as they are 5-2 ATS in Pittsburgh. They are also 2-1 ATS as a home dog.
Texans at Titans
Normally, the Texans would be favored in this matchup and initially opened laying a field goal. However, with the AFC South and No. 4 seed already locked in, there isn’t much reason for DeMeco Ryans to play his key starters in this game. So, that’s why this line has shifted to Titans -4.5. Even with the Houston scrubs playing most, if not all, of this upcoming game, it’s worth pointing out that the Titans are a league-worst 0-7 ATS at home this season. They are the only club in the NFL without an ATS win in their building this regular season. Overall, Houston was 3-4-1 ATS on the road.
Bears at Packers
The Packers opened as a 3-point favorite over Chicago, and that has since jumped up to Green Bay, laying 9.5 points at home. That’s due to Green Bay still fighting for seeding in the NFC playoff picture. Currently, they are the No. 7 seed in the conference and would be traveling to Philadelphia to face the Eagles in the wild-card round. If they were to jump to the No. 6 seed, they’d avoid that hostile environment. Green Bay is 5-3 ATS at home this season with an 11.5-point margin of victory average. They face a Bears team that is 1-5-1 ATS on the road this season and already eliminated from playoff contention.
Jaguars at Colts
The Colts are now a 5.5-point favorite over the Jaguars after initially opening as a 2-point favorite. Both of these teams are eliminated from playoff contention, so they’ll merely be playing for pride at this juncture. Jacksonville defeated the Colts back in Week 5 and are surprisingly 4-3 ATS on the road this season. However, Indy has been a sneaky strong team to back at Lucas Oil Stadium this year, where they are 5-2 ATS.
Bills at Patriots
The Buffalo Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC, so they don’t have much to play for in Week 18. That likely means more Mitchell Trubisky under center than Josh Allen, but the oddsmakers are still making Buffalo the favorites on the road. Initially, the line opened at Bills -3.5, and now it’s Bills -2.5. For New England, there is not much motivation to win this game, as a loss would give it the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
This season, the Patriots are 2-4-1 ATS at Gillette Stadium, while the Bills are 5-3 ATS on the road (3-1 ATS as road favorite).
Panthers at Falcons
After losing to the Commanders on Sunday night, the Falcons do not control their own destiny to the playoffs. That loss, coupled with Tampa Bay’s win over the Panthers on Sunday, saw the Bucs leap ahead of them in the NFC South. For the Falcons to win the division and get into the playoffs, they’ll need to win here and then have the Bucs fall in Week 18.
Given those motivations, it’s not surprising to see this line move further toward Atlanta, as the club is now laying 7.5 points after the line opened at Falcons -6.5.
The Falcons haven’t been a great team to back when playing at home this season, as they own just a 3-5 ATS record. While Carolina has played better down the stretch, they haven’t been world-beaters on the road this season, entering Week 18 with a 2-5 ATS road record.
Saints at Buccaneers
If Tampa Bay takes care of business and beats the Saints at home, they’ll be NFC South champions. That situation has resulted in the odds shooting up exponentially in their favor. At open, the Bucs were laying just 2.5 points, but that has since boosted to Bucs -14. Raymond James Stadium has been kind to Baker Mayfield and Co. this season, as they are 5-3 ATS at home. Meanwhile, New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS on the road this season.
Commanders at Cowboys
The Commanders have some motivation to play their starters in this game despite already locking up a playoff spot. Currently, they are situated as the No. 6 seed but could fall to the No. 7 seed (meaning they’ll head to Philadelphia in the wild-card round) if they lose and the Packers win.
The line for this has remained stagnant after opening at Commanders -3. Dallas has struggled to cover at home this season, as it is just 2-6 ATS at AT&T Stadium. However, the Commanders are so-so on the road this year, coming into Week 18 with a 3-3-1 ATS record. They are also 1-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Giants at Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are NFC East champions and locked in as the No. 2 seed in the NFC, so there isn’t much motivation to play most of their starters. However, it will be interesting to see how the team handles running back Saquon Barkley, as he is within range of breaking the single-season rushing yards record. If he plays, that could impact how the oddsmakers view this game.
At the moment, Philadelphia is laying 3.5 points to New York after the line initially opened at Eagles -5. The Giants, who have temporarily fallen out of possession of the No. 1 overall pick after winning on Sunday, are 2-4 ATS on the road this season. The Eagles are 3-4 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field this year.
Chiefs at Broncos
This is a great example of how convoluted the odds for Week 18 can get. Normally, the Chiefs would be favored just about everywhere and initially were 4-point road favorites in this matchup against Denver. However, after locking up the No. 1 seed and not planning to play key starters in Week 18, the odds have shifted dramatically to the Broncos. They are now laying 9.5 points as they face a win-and-in situation. All Bo Nix and the Broncos need to do is defeat the Chiefs in this matchup, and they’ll punch their ticket to the playoffs. If it’s Carson Wentz under center instead of Patrick Mahomes, that makes those efforts much easier. This season, Denver is 5-2 ATS at home, while the Chiefs are 5-3 ATS on the road.
Seahawks at Rams
This game had the potential to be for the division, but the Rams have already clinched the NFC West title and ousted the Seahawks from the playoffs in the process. That has seen these odds shift from Rams -5.5 at the open to Seahawks -2.5. Given that they have their playoff position largely locked up, the Rams could elect to rest key starters. This season, Seattle is 4-2-1 ATS on the road, while the Rams are 3-5 ATS at SoFi Stadium.
49ers at Cardinals
Both the 49ers and Cardinals are eliminated from playoff position, so these NFC West rivals will merely be playing out the string. The Niners opened as a 4-point favorite, and that has since shrunk down to 49ers -1. Arizona is 5-3 ATS at home this season, while the 49ers are a league-worst 1-6 ATS on the road.
Dolphins at Jets
If the Chiefs beat the Broncos and the Dolphins defeat the Jets, Miami will clinch a playoff spot. Both of those games occur at the same time, so Miami will be treating this like a playoff game as they keep one eye on the scoreboard. Because of those motivations, the line has moved from Jets -3 to Dolphins -2.5. Of course, the big non-playoff scenario storyline in this game will be the availability of Tua Tagovailoa after he missed Sunday’s win over Cleveland due to a hip injury. If he plays, that’ll further move the line toward Miami.
This season, the Dolphins are 4-4 ATS on the road but 2-0 ATS as a road favorite. As for the Jets, they come into Week 18 just 2-5 ATS at MetLife Stadium.
Chargers at Raiders
The Chargers already have a playoff spot secure but could be playing for seeding in this game. Los Angeles enters Week 18 as the No. 6 seed in the AFC but could move to the No. 5 seed with a win and a Steelers loss. In that scenario, that’s a difference between traveling to Houston as the No. 5 seed vs. traveling to Baltimore as the No. 6 seed.
That has the line sitting at Chargers -5.5 after initially opening at Chargers -1. L.A. is 6-2 ATS on the road this season and will face a Raiders team that is 3-3-1 ATS at home.
Vikings at Lions
There couldn’t be more on the line for these NFC North rivals. Not only is the division up for grabs in this game, but the winner will also secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC along with the first-round bye and home-field advantage that comes with it. Given that Detroit still has its Monday night matchup to play, this line could continue to shift. That said, it has already begun to move toward Minnesota as the line opened at Lions -5.5 and now sits at Lions -2.5.
The Vikings are 4-2-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Lions are 4-4 ATS at Ford Field.
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