We have reached the end of the road of the 2024 regular season with Week 18 on our doorstep. It’s been a wild year, setting the stage for what should be a fantastic playoff run over the next month. We’re also wrapping up the year on a positive note regarding my weekly bets, going 10-6 ATS over the holiday slate in Week 17 and 12-4 straight up. That ATS record also includes hitting three of my five locks of the week.
With an opportunity to end the year with winning records in both my locks of the week and overall against the spread, it’s time to lock in. Happy New Year, and let’s start off 2025 with a little extra dough in our pockets.
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 37-40-2
ATS: 125-126-5
ML: 168-88
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
It looks like Josh Allen will see at least some action in Buffalo’s regular-season finale before giving way to Mitchell Trubisky with the No. 2 seed already locked up. Even if Trubisky plays this entire game, Buffalo should have no problem heading into Foxborough and getting the win. New England doesn’t have much motivation to put out a competitive effort, as a loss would secure the franchise the No. 1 overall pick. Even if the Patriots wanted to give the Bills their best punch, they haven’t instilled any confidence they can actually do it. The club has looked largely dejected since coming out of the Week 14 bye and is fresh off an embarrassing effort at home in a loss against the Chargers. That dropped the Pats to 2-4-1 ATS at Gillette Stadium this season. While this game will feature more Buffalo scrubs than its usual cast of characters, the Bills are 5-3 ATS on the road (3-1 ATS as road favorite) this season.
Projected score: Bills 24, Patriots 17
The pick: Bills -3
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win this game, the NFC South is theirs. That’s all the motivation they’ll need with their playoff lives on the line, and bettors should feel pretty confident they can cover the near two-touchdown spread. Baker Mayfield has the offense humming, coming off of an electric five-touchdown performance against the Panthers. There’s no reason to expect this unit to slow down against a New Orleans defense that is giving up 5.7 yards per play this season, tied for the third-most in the NFL. This is also a favorable spot, with the Bucs playing this game in the friendly confines of Raymond James Stadium. At home, Tampa Bay is 5-3 ATS on the year. Meanwhile, the Saints are just 2-5 ATS on the road.
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Saints 16
The pick: Buccaneers -13
- Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, fubo)
I don’t think the Bengals will make the playoffs, but it won’t be because they couldn’t come away with a road win in Pittsburgh. Joe Burrow is running too hot to fade at the moment, especially when facing a Steelers defense that just allowed Patrick Mahomes to light them up for 320 yards passing and three touchdowns on Christmas. Cincinnati has also been the top team to back when they head out on the road, coming into Week 18 with a league-best 7-1 ATS record. That includes a pristine 5-0 ATS record as a road favorite, which is exactly what they are in this AFC North showdown.
Projected score: Bengals 27, Steelers 23
The pick: Bengals -1.5
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
For a regular-season game, you couldn’t make the stakes any higher. Not only is the NFC North division on the line, but the Vikings and Lions will be squaring off in a game where the winner will clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference. Coming into the year, the Lions were the darlings of the NFL-viewing public and were among the favorites to win Super Bowl LIX. While that largely remains the case, the Vikings — with Sam Darnold at the helm — have crashed the party. I expect them to continue this ascent by rolling into Ford Field and pulling off the upset.
In what I viewed as a head-scratching decision, Dan Campbell decided to play all of his starters Monday night against the 49ers. While they were able to get the win, it was a meaningless game for their ultimate goal of winning the division and attaining the No. 1 seed. Now, Detroit will be gearing up for this massive game on a short week after playing on the West Coast. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy just lit the Lions secondary up, which makes me wonder how badly Darnold, Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings offense are champing at the bit to get out onto the field on Sunday night.
The season trends also point favorably to Minnesota, as the team is 4-2-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Lions are 4-4 ATS at Ford Field.
Projected score: Vikings 30, Lions 27
The pick: Vikings +2.5
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Green Bay Packers already have a playoff spot clinched, but they are still playing for seeding. At the moment, the Packers are the No. 7 seed, which would mean they’d travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles in the wild-card round. If they defeat the Bears at home, there’s a possibility they move up to the No. 6 seed to avoid entering that hostile environment. That could be the motivation required to have Matt LaFleur play his starters. Meanwhile, the Bears feel like they are ready to close up shop as the team is already eliminated from the playoffs and on the doorstep of a head coaching search. Chicago is also 1-5-1 ATS on the road this season, while Green Bay is 5-3 ATS at home with an 11.5-point margin of victory average.
Projected score: Packers 30, Bears 17
The pick: Packers -9
Rest of the bunch
Browns at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 33, Browns 16
The pick: Browns +17.5
Panthers at Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 27, Panthers 17
The pick: Falcons -8.5
Texans at Titans
Projected score: Texans 23, Titans 20
The pick: Texans +1
Jaguars at Colts
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Colts 21
The pick: Jaguars +4.5
Giants at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 26, Giants 16
The pick: Eagles -3
Commanders at Cowboys
Projected score: Commanders 27, Cowboys 20
The pick: Commanders -4
Chiefs at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 24, Chiefs 17
The pick: Chiefs +10
Chargers at Raiders
Projected score: Chargers 27, Raiders 16
The pick: Chargers -5.5
Dolphins at Jets
Projected score: Dolphins 23, Jets 20
The pick: Dolphins -1.5
Seahawks at Rams
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Rams 23
The pick: Seahawks -3
49ers at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 24, 49ers 20
The pick: Cardinals +1
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