We’ve closed the book on the 2024 regular season, and now it’s a mad dash to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. That path begins with Wild Card Weekend where we have a ton of fascinating matchups to sink our teeth into. I’ll also be looking to end the year on a high note with my picks during these playoffs, just as I did last postseason when I posted a 10-3 record (SU and ATS).
As we look back on the 2024 season from a betting perspective, it was admittedly meh, hovering around .500 for the bulk of the year. I had an opportunity to finish the year above .500 heading into the final week of the regular season, but the calamity of Week 18 did us no favors. No matter. We’ll shake that off and prepare for what is expected to be high drama as we begin the postseason.
2024 record
Playoffs
ATS: 0-0
ML: 0-0
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 38-44-2
ATS: 131-135-6
ML: 178-94
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
Los Angeles Chargers (5) at Houston Texans (3)
This feels chalky, but I’m putting my faith in Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers defense here. Los Angeles held opponents to 17.7 points per game this season, and now face C.J. Stroud, who has struggled against top competition. The Texans QB is just 1-5 against winning teams this season and has thrown five touchdowns and eight interceptions in those games, while Houston is averaging just 16 points per contest. The Texans also aren’t riding particularly high coming into these playoffs, finishing the season 5-6 after beginning the year 5-1. Herbert makes enough plays offensively, and Harbaugh manufactures a playoff win in his first season with the Chargers.
Projected score: Chargers 24, Texans 20
The pick: Chargers -3
Pittsburgh Steelers (6) at Baltimore Ravens (3)
- Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Most people will point to Lamar Jackson and his production as the page now turns to the playoffs as the central storyline for this game. While the two-time (maybe soon-to-be three-time) MVP will certainly have his fingerprints all over this game, I see this as a showcase for Derrick Henry. THIS is why he’s in Baltimore. Sure, piling up tremendous stats during the regular season was great, but the Ravens struggles last playoffs were tied to the inability to run the football. They shouldn’t have that problem now with Henry in the backfield, and the veteran just carved this Steelers defense up for 162 yards rushing back in Week 16. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense is sneakily playing great. The unit that was once a thorn in their side is now a … strength? From Week 11 to Week 18, the Ravens ranked No. 1 in the NFL in points per game allowed (15.4), total yards per game allowed (261.7), and in third down conversion rate (30%). Match that against a Steelers offense that is limping into the playoffs, and we’re in for an AFC North blowout.
Projected score: Ravens 33, Steelers 17
The pick: Ravens -9.5
Denver Broncos (7) at Buffalo Bills (2)
I think a lot of folks will lean toward taking the Broncos after seeing them dazzle in a playoff-clinching win in Week 18. But let’s remember that they were treating that game like a playoff matchup while the Chiefs were playing backups and playing vanilla defense. This game against Buffalo will be a different story entirely. Bo Nix will now be tasked with going throw-for-throw against MVP favorite Josh Allen. As much as the rookie has impressed, that’s too tall of a task to even keep this within the number. The Bills are a perfect 8-0 SU at Highmark Stadium this season and 5-3 ATS with an average MOV of 16.6. Buffalo also should be able to neutralize one of Denver’s biggest strengths: sacking the quarterback. The Broncos were first in the NFL in sacks this season, but the Bills allowed the fewest sacks in the league. If Allen has time, that’s bad news for Sean Payton’s upset hopes.
Projected score: Bills 30, Broncos 20
The pick: Bills -9
Green Bay Packers (7) at Philadelphia Eagles (2)
- Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX, stream on fubo)
As I write this, we don’t know the official status of Jalen Hurts (concussion protocol), but we’ll assume he suits up. Ditto for Jordan Love. These teams met back in Week 1 in Brazil with the Eagles pulling out the win, but it’s hard to gauge anything from that matchup as we now look to this playoff head-to-head.
My gut tells me that this will be a field goal game, so we’ll ride with the Packers and the points. Jordan Love has been stellar at protecting the football to end the season, currently riding a seven-game streak of zero interceptions. If he continues to keep a clean sheet, I think Green Bay will stick around long enough to make Philly uncomfortable. Even if Green Bay loses this game, what we’ve seen from them throughout the season tells us it won’t be a blowout. Five of their six losses on the year have come by five or fewer points. The Eagles’ talent likely wins out here, but the Packers keep it tight and cover.
Projected score: Eagles 27, Packers 23
The pick: Packers +5.5
Washington Commanders (6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3)
- Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC, stream on fubo)
Jayden Daniels has been special with a capital “S” during his rookie season, but I think it comes to a close here. The Commanders are a widely different team on the road than they are at home, and unfortunately for them, they’re playing this game in Tampa. This season, Washington went 3-4-1 ATS on the road. On top of that, this is a rough matchup, but not because of Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and the rest of the Bucs passing attack. Instead, it’s because of Bucky Irving. The Commanders finished the year tied for the third-highest yards per rush average in the NFL. When you just accounted for road games, Washington ranked tied for second-worst. If Tampa Bay dominates the ground, that only opens up more opportunities for Mayfield and Evans to throw haymakers through the air.
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 23
The pick: Buccaneers -3
Minnesota Vikings (5) at Los Angeles Rams (4)
- Monday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, stream on fubo)
You may not believe me, but this isn’t a simple overreaction to Minnesota’s loss to the Lions last week. It’s more about how I think the Rams could be a frisky team now that they’ve snuck into the playoffs. The duo of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay has a Super Bowl-winning pedigree to lean on while Kevin O’Connell has coached in just one playoff game (a loss) in his career and Sam Darnold has never started a playoff contest. We know the moment won’t be too big for Stafford and McVay, can we say that about O’Connell and Darnold? No. The Rams are 3-0 in the playoffs all-time at SoFi Stadium (including Super Bowl LVI), while Stafford has been lights out in those games. Minnesota’s secondary could have problems containing both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, further applying pressure to Darnold and the Vikings offense to keep pace. I think McVay puts on a coaching masterclass against his former OC and pulls off the home upset.
Projected score: Rams 24, Vikings 23
The pick: Rams +1.5
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