Inside: How free agency changed this year’s draft, whether Brock Purdy should get $60 million and which sleeper QB you should know.
This article is from Scoop City, The Athletic’s NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.
Nine ways free agency changed this draft
That sigh of relief you might’ve heard? It was from Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, as the team will protect him with new veteran linemen in 2025. Chicago’s investment up front was one of several moves that changed what we should expect in next month’s draft:
1. When it comes to the No. 1 pick, “all signs point to Cam Ward,” according to our draft guru Dane Brugler. The Titans didn’t appear in any rumors to land any veteran quarterbacks, and their most notable free agent additions were along the offensive line — committing more than $80 million toward LT Dan Moore Jr. and G Kevin Zeitler — which could signal intentions to create a hospitable environment for a rookie QB.
Advertisement
What would that mean for the Browns, picking No. 2? Dane shared more in today’s “The Athletic Football Show” podcast, which you can listen to here.
2. Those remodeled Bears might be in the market for Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty. Scott Dochterman said the acquisitions of C Drew Dalman, G Joe Thuney and G Jonah Jackson changed Chicago’s focus:
“Before the trades, Chicago was in the market for an offensive lineman at No. 10. GM Ryan Poles still might select one, just no longer based on need. The Bears could pivot instead to Jeanty.”
Jeanty would become Chicago’s highest-drafted running back since Matt Forte in 2008’s second round. Penn State TE Tyler Warren is also in play.
3. But the Raiders, Cowboys and Broncos still need running backs. After the Raiders added QB Geno Smith and the Broncos addressed TE with Evan Engram, any of the first-round picks for Vegas (No. 6), Dallas (No. 12) or Denver (No. 20) could be used on RBs.
After Jeanty, North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton will be a target. The gap between the two is smaller than most realize. Here’s how Jeanty and Hampton typically address gaps:
The Cowboys will also be a potential spot for either Michigan CB Will Johnson, an edge rusher or a receiver, according to Dane. Robert Mays, host of “The Athletic Football Show” podcast, thinks Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan addresses the need for a vertical receiver.
4. Teams don’t trust this tackle class. There are valid questions about the top three options at that position (LSU’s Will Campbell, Missouri’s Armand Membou and Ohio State’s Josh Simmons), as well as the remaining prospects. Nick Baumgardner explained:
“When we see the Titans sign [former Steelers LT] Dan Moore for $82 million over four years and the Chiefs give [49ers backup] Jaylon Moore $30 million over two, it should be obvious what those teams think about the incoming rookie group’s ability to provide immediate help.”
5. Expect an offense-heavy draft by the Patriots. Their lack of talent at receiver and left tackle remained unaddressed during the first week of free agency, where they spent heavily on defense.
In Patriots reporter Chad Graff’s latest mock draft, he has the team taking LSU’s Campbell at No. 4 and Stanford WR Elic Ayomanor with pick No. 38. New England’s history of drafting receivers is as rough as Urban Meyer’s tenure in Jacksonville, so I’m not optimistic in general, but I’ll always root for Ayomanor, an underdog from Canada.
Advertisement
6. The 49ers are positioned to address major needs. Beat reporter Matt Barrows identified San Francisco’s most glaring weakness as defensive tackle, where there is no clear starter. Thankfully, there are 13 DT prospects in the consensus Top 100. GM John Lynch must be praying overall No. 4 Mason Graham falls to No. 11 in the draft.
7. The Lions should draft an edge rusher, unless … they add one of the remaining free agents, a list that includes Za’Darius Smith, Von Miller and Matthew Judon.
In Lions reporter Colton Pouncy’s roster update, he listed Marcus Davenport as Detroit’s starting edge, noting, “Davenport’s return, and Smith’s release, make sense if the team isn’t done adding. Davenport could be a rotational piece, which could allow him to keep his body fresher.” Bringing back Smith feels like a logical move.
8. The Jets plan to develop talent. Outside of QB Justin Fields, there were no big-name signings by the new regime. Beat reporter Zack Rosenblatt explains why this isn’t cause for concern:
“During [HC Aaron] Glenn’s four years as DC, the Lions prioritized building through the draft, and it worked. In 2024 — despite a rash of injuries — Detroit’s defense had its best season under Glenn, and most of the core players were drafted and developed.”
Starting offensive linemen should remain a priority, though the team also needs receivers, a tight end, defensive tackle and a safety. Unlike the Aaron Rodgers saga, don’t expect this regime to force anything.
9. Arizona no longer needs an edge. Holders of the No. 16 pick, the Cardinals addressed their pass rush by signing former Eagle Josh Sweat to a four-year deal. He gives GM Monti Ossenfort the flexibility to use their first-round pick on the best player available, which could be an offensive lineman like North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel. In Mel Kiper’s latest mock, he had the Cardinals landing Michigan CB Johnson.
The Purdy Question: How much is he worth?
Since Brock Purdy was drafted in 2022, 64 quarterbacks have thrown 200-plus passes each. Here’s where he ranks in several key categories:
His pay? That ranks 64th, making Purdy the best value in NFL history.
Three years of Purdy cost the 49ers less ($2.6 million) than Deshaun Watson costs per game spent on the bench ($2.7 million).
Last fall, I asked your fellow newsletter readers whether Purdy is worth $60 million, still the high water mark for quarterback contracts. There was no consensus; 40 percent said he deserved it, 40 percent recommended a maximum of $55 million and the remainder thought SF should trade him, rather than pay up.
Don’t expect the latter, even with Mac Jones now on the roster. The 49ers’ winning percentage drops from 64.3 to 53.3 without Purdy. He missed two games in 2024, and they lost both by a combined margin of 51 points.
“I plan on being with Brock here the whole time I’m here,” coach Kyle Shanahan said. In Barrows’ detailed evaluation of Purdy, the Niners reporter explains, “Of the six quarterbacks under Shanahan who have attempted at least 100 passes, Purdy is the only one who’s done better than expected.”
Their recent free-agent exodus trimmed their salary-cap fat, a necessary evil before Purdy’s extension. The 49ers have $42 million in 2025 cap space (and $65 million in 2026, 10th-most per OverTheCap), which gives them flexibility in structuring their 25-year-old quarterback’s deal.
Time to update. If you were the 49ers GM, what would you pay Purdy from 2026 onward? Click here to vote on where you’d place him in the current QB-salary hierarchy. We’ll share the results on Friday.
Extra Point: Meet QB Kyle McCord
Jordan Palmer, brother of Carson, is now a preeminent personal QB coach, with a client list including Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold and … Syracuse QB Kyle McCord. Palmer believes the Ohio State transfer will be among the top quarterbacks drafted next month.
Nick Kosmider explains why you should know McCord’s name. One reason: “[McCord’s] spin rate, spiral efficiency, velocity and a host of other metrics were on par with some of the best passers Palmer has ever had.”
This week’s most-clicked: Mike Jones shares his full list of free agency winners and losers.
📫 Enjoyed this read? Sign up here to receive The Athletic’s free daily NFL newsletter in your inbox.
Also, check out our other newsletters.
(Photo: Todd Kirkland, Joe Robbins / Getty Images)
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
