Narratives in Major League Baseball are a funny thing. Fans want teams to try to win, but not try too hard. They want to see star players on the biggest stage, but demonize those who want to play on the best team. Spending the most money only comes in for criticism if you win, while tanking is a perfectly acceptable strategy.
There’s not a lot of consistency and coherence in national narratives.
But there is one narrative that refuses to die, no matter how inaccurate it might be: that some teams are attempting to buy a World Series. And rest assured, it is wildly inaccurate.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have come in for this type of criticism during the 2024-2025 offseason, thanks to several signings that have pushed their payroll up above $300 million. Except no matter how high payroll gets for the Dodgers, or for any other team for that matter, there’s no way to buy a World Series. And talk of the 2025 season being a foregone conclusion is ignorant of recent history and the thin margins in professional baseball.
As Chris Rose pointed out, “The Dodgers last year became the sixth team that finished with the regular season’s best record to also go on and win the World Series” in the last 25 years.
Not only does winning the most games in the regular season not matter when it comes to October, but spending the most money in an attempt to win the most games also doesn’t matter.
Oct 30, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez (37) and designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) celebrate after winning the 2024 MLB World Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
It’s Hard To Win In MLB, No Matter What
The margins between teams in MLB is so small that even the most dominant superteam ever constructed would be only marginally favored to win a best-of-five playoff series. There’s no such thing as “upsets” in MLB, because the gaps in talent are so small.
The Dodgers were baseball’s best team in 2024, and they entered the playoffs with a 19.6% chance of winning the World Series, per Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system. With all the additions they’ve made in the offseason, assuming their stars are all healthy heading into October, that number would likely only rise into the low 20’s.
Even if LA added Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Spencer Strider, those odds would barely move. Baseball is not football.
For example, the best team in baseball history, the 2001 Seattle Mariners, won just over 71% of their games. The NFL had seven teams this season that either matched or exceeded that percentage. And that Mariners team went 4-6 in the playoffs, squeaking by the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS before losing in five games to the New York Yankees.
The 2022 Dodgers won 111 games, outscoring opponents by 334 runs. One of the most dominant seasons in baseball history. They lost in four games in the NLDS to the wild card winning San Diego Padres. The Yankees that year won 99 games with a +240 run differential. They got swept in the ALCS by the Houston Astros.
The value in spending more money building the best team is to increase your probability. Yes, the Dodgers have built a roster full of star-level talent. Yes, they’re likely to win 100 games this year and secure another division title. No, it doesn’t mean the season isn’t worth playing. Because that’s not how baseball works.
There’s an 80+% chance that a team other than the Dodgers will win the 2025 World Series. And that fact makes what their ownership is doing worthy of praise, not anger. They’re trying to give their fans a reason to show up for 81 games, to watch all 162 on television. They’re trying to win as many regular season games as possible. It’s what every team should do. Even if it doesn’t actually matter when it comes to winning the ultimate prize.
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