Notre Dame advanced to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals by beating Indiana with relative ease at home.
The Fighting Irish have a far tougher task ahead in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, who will have extra time to prepare for the Fighting Irish as it integrates in backup quarterback Gunner Stockton to the role of starting quarterback.
Carson Beck will miss the Sugar Bowl with an elbow injury, but the Bulldogs remain a small favorite for this one with a spot in the semifinals on the line. Can Georgia game plan to a new quarterback? Here’s our betting preview.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 44.5 (Over -106/Under -114)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Notre Dame
Riley Leonard: Leonard is a true dual-threat quarterback and will be tasked with giving issues to the Georgia defense. The Duke transfer ran for 30 yards and a touchdown while adding 201 yards through the air on a 72% completion percentage in the first round victory. Will Georgia provide different looks for the ND offense that will force Leonard to be more aggressive?
Georgia
Gunner Stockton: The Georgia backup stepped in for Carson Beck in the second half of the SEC Championship Game and guided the Bulldogs to a win, completing 12-of-16 passes for 71 yards. While having limited experience, Stockton navigated the Georgia offense with a run-first mindset, can he do the same with extra preparations against Notre Dame?
This game will likely be a rockfight between these two physical defenses and offenses that are buoyed by efficiency over big plays.
While the Fighting Irish were able to shut down Indiana, the team won’t enjoy the size advantage in the trenches against the Bulldogs, who will be the best defensive line the team has seen this season.
It’s worth noting that Georgia has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks all season, namely Jalen Milroe (116 yards), Jaxson Dart (50 yards) and Haynes King (110 yards), and Riley Leonard fits a similar mold as someone capable of taking over games with his legs.
However, the Fighting Irish will be up against it facing the Bulldogs defense that has seen a Mike Denbrock offense before back with LSU in the 2022 SEC Championship Game, allowing only 47 rushing yards in a 50-30 victory.
The Fighting Irish struggled to move the ball against Indiana. Outside of a 98-yard touchdown run from Jeremiyah Love, the Irish averaged about four yards per snap. Of course, the game script was favorable, but this was not a dominant offensive showing that many made the game out to be.
Meanwhile, I believe the Bulldogs can use the extra week of prep to acclimate Stockton into the role of QB1 and the team can craft a gameplan that can test a Notre Dame defense that has faced a limited group of offenses to date.
As well, the Fighting Irish will be down starting defensive line Rylie Mills for this one after he suffered a knee injury in the first round win.
The Notre Dame defense is far worse against the run, 46th in EPA/Rush, and the Bulldogs may be able to pound the Irish into submission.
PICK: Georgia ML (-140)
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