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Eric Karabell
Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani leads the major leagues in home runs with 20, on pace to top last season’s mark of 54, which was second only to New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge. Ohtani also led the league in 2024 with 134 runs scored. Fantasy managers naturally pay more attention to home runs, RBI and stolen bases, but runs certainly matter, regardless of fantasy format. And Ohtani sure is scoring a lot of runs this season.
Don’t be surprised… if Ohtani breaks the modern mark for runs scored in a season
OK, so there is only so much a baseball player can do to score runs. Home runs play a role, of course, but the proficiency of his teammates makes up a big part of it as well. Let us just say that Ohtani’s teammates are helping him. Ohtani enters this weekend having scored 59 runs in 54 games. You don’t need to be a math major to calculate that as being more than one run per game. However, let’s do some math to see what his pace is, because it sure seems historic.
Ohtani has played in 54 of his team’s 56 games. The Dodgers have 106 games remaining. If Ohtani, hitting .292 with a 14.6% walk rate, continues his current pace of 1.09 runs per game — and he plays in the all of the possible remaining games — he would score another 116 runs. Combine that with his current total and that makes 175 runs. That’s a lot! In fact, just three players in history have scored 170 runs in a season, and only one since the turn of the 20th century (Babe Ruth had 177 in 1921). Ruth and Lou Gehrig are the only ones since 1900 to score 160 runs.
In more modern times, many of us saw Houston Astros 1B Jeff Bagwell score 152 runs in 2000 and Atlanta Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr. scored 149 runs just two years ago. Acuna achieved his total in 159 games. Look, it’s hard to score more than one run per game. Since 1980, Yankees OF Rickey Henderson is the lone qualified player to do so. He scored 146 runs over 143 games in 1985. Ohtani, who scored his 134 runs last season with the aid of 197 hits, has scored his 59 runs this season via only 63 hits (but a higher walk rate). This all needs more attention!
I occasionally sort hitters by their “total number of baserunners when (the batter is) at the plate” to see who gets the most opportunities, because it can predict RBI, and some of the names atop the leaderboard surprise. Chicago Cubs OF Seiya Suzuki leads the way, and predictably, he leads MLB with 51 RBI (in 52 games!). Cincinnati Reds SS Elly De La Cruz, New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso (Juan Soto still draws myriad walks), St. Louis Cardinals 3B Nolan Arenado, Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers and Yankees SS Anthony Volpe are next. Yes, that Volpe — the team’s No. 6 hitter!
Who leads the Dodgers? Take a guess. I can wait. It’s not SS/OF Mookie Betts, 1B Freddie Freeman, OF Teoscar Hernandez or C Will Smith. No, it’s 3B Max Muncy, tied for 54th in baseball (and he typically hits from No. 5 to No. 7 in the lineup) — and he isn’t doing a great job of getting the runners in. Perhaps his rate improves. Ohtani is the MVP (again), but he scores runs at this rate because his teammates knock him in.
Regardless, what does this all mean for fantasy? Ohtani is rostered in every league, of course, and he is well on his way to yet another league MVP award. He is on pace for 58 home runs, 101 RBI (the batters at the bottom of the Dodgers lineup must improve!), 30 stolen bases and 171 runs (over 156 games). In essence, even with fewer stolen bases and RBI, Ohtani is producing similarly to last season, because this is a historic pace for runs. It’s awesome and I predict he ends up with 160 runs in 154 games.
You may be wondering whether Ohtani’s potential pitching will affect his hitting and, while a normal response would be that it must play some role in some way, hasn’t Ohtani proven to be different? A unicorn? What can’t Ohtani do? Well, I am skeptical he makes more than 10 starts, and half of those will likely be three or four innings at a time, because all that matters to the Dodgers is October. I just can’t predict any offensive malaise here. Ohtani will not provide much fantasy value on the mound this season, but he can handle both roles at the same time, with no adjustment in proficiency. He is that special.
Don’t be surprised… if Kansas City Royals LHP Kris Bubic finishes as a top-10 hurler
Bubic, 27, entered this season with an 11-29 career record over five seasons with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Only 60 of his 97 appearances came as a starter. He returned from Tommy John surgery during the 2024 campaign and tossed 30 1/3 solid innings in relief, his fastball velocity up from prior levels, leading to an elevated strikeout rate. Plus, he avoided walks and home runs with an adjusted pitch mix. Still, the Royals made it clear Bubic would indeed start in 2025, and fantasy managers made it clear they showed little interest, for good reason.
Today, considering the context, Bubic is arguably the fantasy pitching MVP of the first third of the season, leading MLB in pitching WAR, ranking second to only Max Fried with a 1.45 ERA, and sitting as a top 10 pitcher in fantasy points. This is extraordinary value for an April free-agent pickup and the best part is that it all looks legitimate. Bubic has permitted only two earned runs over his last five outings. He has fanned nine hitters twice in that span. He boasts nearly identical numbers at his spacious home park (1.40 ERA) as he does in road games (1.48 ERA). His FIP is sixth best at 2.55.
No pitcher left behind: Has anyone noticed how, entering Thursday, the top four pitchers in strikeouts all throw with their left hand? Washington Nationals LHP MacKenzie Gore fanned 13 Phillies on Opening Day, and he hasn’t really stopped since. Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal, Yankees LHP Carlos Rodon and Red Sox LHP Garrett Crochet are next up, followed by Philadelphia Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler (scheduled to face Atlanta Thursday). Half of today’s top 20 in strikeouts, including Bubic, throw left-handed.
What does this mean for fantasy? Perhaps nothing. Of the 19 pitchers with 3,000 career strikeouts, only three threw left-handed — true hard-throwing unicorn Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton and CC Sabathia. Lefties used to give off a vibe of craftiness and durability, that they did not throw as hard as “power” right-handers but found other ways to retire hitters (like comparing Greg Maddux to Tom Glavine, for example). Perhaps fantasy forefathers were more inclined to invest in right-handed hurlers. Those days are over.
Don’t be surprised… if Chicago White Sox SS/2B/3B Chase Meidroth becomes a top-50 points-league hitter
Meidroth was an overlooked part of the return in the Crochet trade with the Red Sox and, while fantasy managers may not want any part of White Sox players, they should make an exception here (and with OF Luis Robert Jr., who leads the league in stolen bases). Meidroth is not at all overwhelmed in his rookie season and, while his batting profile needs improvement in terms of exit velocity, Barrels and ground ball rate, his plate discipline and speed may overcome all of it.
Athletics SS Jacob Wilson gets all the notice for his extreme contact skills, and perhaps he ends up being named the AL Rookie of the Year, but Meidroth has become a fantasy factor, too. He walks and strikes out twice as much as Wilson, but one may argue what Meidroth is doing is more sustainable. Meidroth drew 105 walks (71 K) at Triple-A Worcester in 2024. He stole 13 bases in 19 chances, which didn’t look like much, but he is already 8-for-9 in his first 33 games in the majors. Meidroth has more fantasy points than Robert over the past 30 days. It may continue.
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