Updated win total projections and early lines for several notable college football games are in play from FanDuel Sportsbook as summer kicks into high gear ahead of the 2025 season. Conversation surrounding various teams shift quickly when fall camp commences and we see what programs are working with to start the campaign.
And while it’s important not to overreact to opening-weekend performances, it sometimes tells us a lot about teams ready to open eyes and reverse opinions during the season. Notre Dame and Miami come to mind last fall as both posted impressive road victories to climb up the national rankings.
We’ve identified five teams — one from each Power Four league along with a Group of Five squad — that could soar past preseason win total expectations this fall. The following win totals are currently available at FanDuel.
Key factor: Surviving a treacherous first-half slate that includes three preseason top-10 opponents.
Oddsmakers haven’t had enough of the DJ Lagway hype, yet? It would grow exponentially in the coming months if the Gators are a surprise challenger near the top of the SEC. One of the nation’s hottest quarterbacks to finish the 2024 season, Lagway played an integral role in Gators wins over LSU, Ole Miss and Tulane to end the campaign. And when taking into account some of the impact skill players Florida signed in its 2025 class, Billy Napier’s fourth roster in Gainesville should be his best when paired with four returning offensive linemen.
Shemar James, Jason Marshall, Des Watson and Jack Pyburn are the only noticeable losses in the starting lineup defensively for new coordinator Vinnie Sunseri, a former safety at Alabama tasked with fixing issues on the back end. Sunseri should be able to get the most out of Florida’s depth in the secondary, an area that previously held the team back. It’s easy to identify why many outlets have Florida comfortably inside the top 25. This win total seems low for a team with lofty expectations.
Key factor: For the first time in more than a decade, Iowa’s offense finishing in the top half of Big Ten.
The Hawkeyes haven’t had a quarterback throw 20 or more touchdown passes since the 2018 season with Nate Stanley, but that chould change this fall after adding Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State via the transfer portal. Second-year offensive coordinator Tim Lester helped Iowa climb out of the Big Ten’s offensive cellar last fall with enhanced productivity on third down, and now he gets one of the most experienced passers at the college level to orchestrate his scheme.
One of the most under-the-radar hires this offseason was former Wake Forest play caller Warren Ruggiero landing with the Hawkeyes as a senior offensive analyst. His slow mesh concepts over the last decade with the Demon Deacons produced sizable numbers with quarterbacks Jamie Newman, Sam Hartman and others. Perhaps he can unlock a few new wrinkles in Iowa’s rushing attack, which must replace 1,500-yard back Kaleb Johnson.
Key factor: Starting September strong, allowing for a jump into the national rankings.
There’s not a team in the Power Four ranks with a more front-loaded schedule compared to the rest of the slate. TCU opens at North Carolina as a 1.5-point underdog for Bill Belichick’s debut before hosting nationally-ranked SMU. The Frogs then go to defending Big 12 champion Arizona State to close the month. Returning quarterback Josh Hoover can thrust himself into the Heisman conversation with a couple head-turning performances. He was courted by an SEC program this offseason and his best football should come in 2025.
Given the unpredictability of the Big 12 approaching the new campaign, why not sprinkle something on the Horned Frogs? Part of the influence on the low win total is the fact TCU replaces a couple veteran starters at the line of scrimmage on both sides, wideouts Jack Bech, Savion Williams and JP Richardson, along with a few impact guys on defense. The good news is TCU’s roster, on paper, might still be better than what the Tar Heels bring to the table in the opener and the home opener comes against Abilene Christian. That’s two games to get the two-deep sorted out prior to battling rival SMU.
Key factor: Keeping quarterback Blake Horvath healthy throughout the season.
Navy is tied with Memphis and Tulane for the highest preseason win total in the American. Only one returning quarterback nationally scored more touchdowns on the ground than Horvath, who finished with 1,246 yards and 17 trips to the end zone. Fullback Alex Tecza returns as well, along with most of the offensive line. During the regular season, there’s a chance the only matchups the Midshipmen will not be favored to win come on the road against Notre Dame and Memphis. If Navy’s able to handle its business against others and build on last year’s 10-win campaign under coach Brian Newberry, this is the service academy to bet big on this fall.
Key factor: Offseason transfer portal additions being difference-makers in the ACC.
When star receiver Trebor Pena hit the portal and subsequently landed at Penn State at the end of spring practice, second-year Syracuse coach Fran Brown was forced to adapt. He has signed three Power Four offensive line transfers since, former Notre Dame quarterback Steve Angeli and ex-Texas receiver Johntay Cook II. Imagine how quickly the narrative would change on Syracuse if Brown’s team goes to Atlanta and topples Tennessee in the season opener? Syracuse blew past its projected win total in 2024, leaving many to wonder what it has for an encore this season.
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