The first College Football Playoff semifinal will be in the warmth of Florida as the rest of the national hit by a cold spell in the first full week of the new year.
Notre Dame and Penn State clash in the Orange Bowl with the winner advancing to the national title game and a chance to end its school’s long championship drought. The Irish last ruled college football in 1988. The Nittany Lions won their most-recent title two years prior in 1986.
Another storyline to watch is that both teams are led by Black coaches – Marcus Freeman of Notre Dame and James Franklin of Penn State. The matchup means that it is guaranteed a Black coach will be in the Bowl Subdivision national championship game for the first time.
On the field, both teams mirror each other. They’re two of the best defenses in the country but lack explosiveness on offense when facing quality opponent. It shapes up to be an old school fist fight where a turnover and one big play could be key. So who wins? Our experts make their picks.
Scooby Axson
This is expected to be a defensive grinder, so the team that can consistently run the ball and have their quarterback get the ball to the playmakers will win. That usually means that when two top 10 defenses are playing, the first team to 17 will come out victorious. Irish quarterback Riley Leonard doesn’t need to do much through the air, like in the Georgia win, but making plays with his legs will extend drives and be the difference in the game. Notre Dame 24, Penn State 9.
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Jordan Mendoza
Which defense will rule the day? Both Penn State and Notre Dame have been able to limit opponents on their way to the semifinal, so each team will have to earn every single point on the scoreboard. Penn State’s offense seems to be more potent than Notre Dame, but the Fighting Irish cause mistakes with the most turnovers forced this season. Notre Dame causes fits for Drew Allar and hold on to get past the Nittany Lions in a gritty contest. Notre Dame 20, Penn State 16.
Paul Myerberg
Two elite defenses will battle for a spot in the title game. The Orange Bowl may come down to turnovers and which quarterback is best able to handle pressure and extend drives on third down. Penn State has better weapons in the passing game, but Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard’s legs will be a major asset as the Irish look to extend drives on third down. A low-scoring game comes down to the very end with the Irish pulling it out. Notre Dame 23, Penn State 16.
Erick Smith
James Franklin’s history against elite teams is well-documented. Penn State has consistently fallen short in big games and questionable coaching decisions have been a big part of those losses. So does he and the Nittany Lions get over the hump? They’re the better team on offense with Tyler Warren being a unique threat that Notre Dame cannot match and will find difficult to defend. But like most big games matching two elite defenses, this one should be close, and the teams will be separated by a handful of big plays. The Fighting Irish have shown a greater propensity to find ways to win in that manner. You have to like their chances to do it again. Notre Dame 20, Penn State 17.
Eddie Timanus
This is a bad matchup for Penn State, the kind of game in which the Nittany Lions are going to need big plays from their passing game that simply won’t be there because of Notre Dame’s lockdown secondary. Granted the Fighting Irish don’t get many of those, either, but the added dimension of quarterback Riley Leonard’s mobility gives to the offense will be the difference. Notre Dame 26, Penn State 13.
Dan Wolken
This is where the reality of the new College Football Playoff format becomes a separator. As impressively as Notre Dame won the first two games, it came at a cost. This is a banged-up football team, with key defensive lineman Rylie Mills suffering a season-ending injury against Indiana and tight end Cooper Flanagan getting hurt against Georgia. Running back Jeremiyah Love and defensive lineman Howard Cross were also having issues against Georgia but appear to be playing. Penn State’s biggest question mark is Abdul Carter, their best defensive player who was forced out of the quarterfinals. If he’s limited, that changes things. But as it stands, I’ll go with the slightly healthier team. Penn State 27, Notre Dame 23.
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