Oregon continues to play itself into NCAA Tournament form while Wisconsin is playing itself into a Big Ten title winning team.
The Badgers continue to smash expectations this season, fresh off back-to-back wins at Purdue and against Illinois, now winners of five in a row. The Badgers will look to keep it rolling on Saturday against Oregon, who held on to knock off Iowa on the road during the week, can the Ducks pull a stunner in Madison?
Here’s our betting preview.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 154.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Oregon
Jackson Shelstad: The Oregon guard is off his worst game of the season, missing all seven of his shots against a porous Iowa defense and finishing with three points. The talented shot maker is hitting 46% of his 3s in Big Ten play, and will surely need to be on his game against the surging Badgers offense.
Wisconsin
John Tonje: Shaping up to be the best transfer in the country, Tonje is fresh off back-to-back 30-point outings for Wisconsin. A forward with a handle like a guard, Tonje has been unstoppable getting to the rack all season and pacing this revamped Wisconsin offense. He is averaging nearly 20 points per game on 48% shooting from the field.
These two teams have plenty of talent, but with a total in the 150’s, I’m going to side with the under.
The Oregon defense has been shaky at times, but is playing solid basketball at the moment, and can funnel the Badgers off the 3-point line, which has been imperative for its success. The Ducks have the second lowest 3-point allowed rate in Big Ten play, which can play a role against the most perimeter oriented offense in the conference. The Badgers are shooting over 39% from 3-point range (tops in the Big Ten) on a league high 49% rate.
However, the Ducks morphing defense that features zone principles can play a role against a Wisconsin offense that is still relatively slow and willing to play in the half court.
On the other side of the ball, I question if Oregon can dominate from the perimeter against Wisconsin’s compact defense. The Badgers defense can be had from distance, but the Ducks are more reliant on getting inside and playing through veteran big man Nate Bittle, but the Badgers bolster the second best Big Ten 2-point field goal percentage defense this season.
Fading Wisconsin’s offense off of back-to-back 90-plus point efforts feels scary, but the under is the best way to play this one.
PICK: UNDER 154.5 (-110, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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