The 12-team College Football Playoff is here — and with it, a new spin on bracketology. The CFP picture will change week by week in the 2024 college football season. And so every Monday, we’ll take a look at the CFP landscape — and where Penn State stands.
Penn State held firm at No. 3 in the AP poll after the Nittany Lions were on the bye in Week 8. I had the Nittany Lions staying at No. 2 on my AP ballot.
As a voter for the Associated Press top 25 poll, I’m going to use my weekly ballot to create a projected 12-team CFP bracket, implementing the CFP committee’s formula.
Reminder: The 12-team CFP is made up of the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large teams. First-round byes are given to the four highest-ranked champs. The highest-ranked Group of Five champion is guaranteed a spot in the field.
Let’s take a look at where things stand for Penn State after Week 9.
PennLive reporter Johnny McGonigal’s College Football Playoff bracket after Week 9, based off his AP top 25 ballot.Johnny McGonigal
Penn State outlook
Penn State’s win at Wisconsin significantly increased its chances of reaching the CFP, according to ESPN’s projections. The Nittany Lions now have an 84.2% chance to reach the playoff, up from 72.7% last week. Penn State has the fourth-best odds to make the CFP, behind Miami (89.6%), Oregon (87%) and Georgia (84.7%) and ahead of Texas (75.3%) and the rest.
Notably, ESPN gives Ohio State, which beat Nebraska to improve to 6-1 on the season, a 72.6% chance to reach the CFP. Both teams could still make it there with a loss next week at Beaver Stadium. But the Buckeyes would be in worse shape than the Nittany Lions.
Based on my AP ballot and the AP poll overall, the Nittany Lions would get a first-round home playoff game against Boise State at Beaver Stadium. Heisman Trophy front-runner Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos have been impressive, most recently beating UNLV in a crucial game for the Mountain West title race and the pursuit of the G5′s automatic CFP berth.
If the Nittany Lions secure the No. 5 seed — like they do in this scenario — they’d play the No. 4 seed, most likely the Big 12 champion, in the Fiesta Bowl.
Overall thoughts
— SMU (29.8% to reach CFP) and Pitt (20.4%) face off in a game with CFP implications. Pitt is undefeated, and SMU is unbeaten in ACC play. Just as we all expected, right? Miami has a cakewalk to the ACC title game while Clemson plays Pitt in a couple weeks. If either Pitt or SMU wants to be a legit contender for the CFP, winning on Saturday is paramount.
— Alabama (53.2%), LSU (21.4%) and Ole Miss (19.3%) have two losses apiece, but they’re not dead yet. Next Saturday, the Crimson Tide and Tigers square off while Ole Miss travels to Georgia. Big games in the SEC are coming up.
— Keep an eye on Tulane (10.5%). The Green Wave are 6-2 with losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma. They’ve won five straight and are the favorites to win the American. If Boise State doesn’t win the Mountain West, Tulane could earn the G5′s auto bid to the CFP.
— Washington State (10.2%) is 7-1 with its lone loss coming at Boise State. The Cougars can’t earn an auto bid to the CFP; winning the two-team Pac-12 does nothing for them this year. But could Wazzu make it in as an at-large at 11-1? They’d need some serious help.
— My projections right now have Indiana hosting Notre Dame in the first round. The people of the Hoosier state would lose their minds. Would love to see that come to fruition.
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