The Padres are in agreement with Nick Pivetta on a four-year, $55MM free agent deal that includes multiple opt-out chances, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’s an extremely backloaded contract that pays Pivetta a $3MM signing bonus and a $1MM salary for the upcoming season, Passan adds. That’ll be followed by successive salaries of $19MM, $14MM, and $18MM. Pivetta can opt out after the second and third seasons. While the salary structure helps the Padres navigate short-term payroll constraints, the $13.75MM average annual value counts evenly against the team’s luxury tax calculation. The deal is pending a physical and has not been officially announced by the Padres, who have two opening on their 40-man roster.
Pivetta, who’ll celebrate his 32rd birthday on Friday, was the best unsigned starting pitcher. He had declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox at the beginning of the offseason. That was a bit of a surprising decision that presumably played a role in holding up his market into Spring Training. He finds a multi-year deal with a much greater overall guarantee than he would have received had he accepted the QO, though he’s taking a notable pay cut for the upcoming season in the process.
The 6’5″ righty debuted with the Phillies in 2017. He struggled for most of his four-year tenure in Philadelphia. A 2020 deadline trade sending him to Boston turned his career around. Pivetta has been a mid-rotation workhorse over the last four years. He ranks 23rd in MLB with 623 innings since the start of the 2021 season. He owns a cumulative 4.33 earned run average and has allowed an ERA between 4.04 and 4.56 in each season.
Pivetta was a fixture in Alex Cora’s rotation over his first two seasons in Boston. He remained in that role early in the ’23 campaign, but the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in the middle of May. Pivetta was sitting on a 6.30 ERA over his first eight starts of the season. He had a fantastic turnaround in a long relief capacity. Pivetta allowed 1.98 earned runs per nine with an exceptional 36.9% strikeout rate over his first 17 relief appearances. Boston gradually stretched him back out to a rotation workload as the season progressed, putting him back in the starting five entering last season.
A flexor strain in his elbow sent him to the injured list in early April. That was remarkably the first non-virus IL stint of his nearly seven-year MLB career. Pivetta returned no worse for wear a month later and stayed heathy from May onwards. He wound up taking the ball 27 times and worked to a 4.14 ERA across 145 2/3 innings.
Pivetta’s run prevention numbers are those of a league average starter. That alone would be a significant boost to a San Diego rotation that needs reliable back-end innings. Pivetta’s strikeout and walk profile has been more intriguing than the bottom line results. He punched out 28.9% of opposing hitters against a modest 6.1% walk rate last season. That was the third season of the past four years in which he has posted a well above-average strikeout rate.
However, the swing-and-miss ability has been somewhat undercut by longstanding issue keeping the ball in the park. Pivetta has allowed a higher than average home run rate in every season of his MLB career. He gives up a lot of hard contact. While Statcast’s park factors grade Fenway Park as one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly venues overall, it has played around neutral for home runs specifically over the past few seasons. Petco Park has been around average for home runs as well, though it broadly plays more favorably for pitchers.
Pivetta slots fourth on Bob Melvin’s rotation depth chart for the moment. He’s behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in what had been a very top-heavy rotation. It’s a lot more balanced now, as Pivetta can provide innings that San Diego lost when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery last fall. That’d leave one spot up for grabs among the likes of Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron and potential reliever conversion candidates Bryan Hoeing and Stephen Kolek.
That’d only be the case if there are no other moves before Opening Day. The Padres have been hamstrung all offseason by payroll restrictions. It’s the second straight winter in which the front office has had limited financial leeway. They’ve inked a trio of cheap one-year deals to plug holes at catcher and left field. They signed Elias Díaz for $3.5MM to start behind the plate while bringing in Connor Joe and Jason Heyward for a left field platoon at a combined $2MM cost.
Pivetta won’t make much more than that in year one. The bigger ramifications are from a luxury tax perspective. The Padres snuck below the tax line in 2024. They’ve seemingly preferred to do so again this offseason. The Padres had projected narrowly above this year’s $241MM base luxury tax threshold. Pivetta pushes them close to the second tax tier. RosterResource calculates their tax number around $258MM. The actual fees are relatively small. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM. They’ll pay a $2.75MM tax on the Pivetta deal and are currently lined up for about $3.4MM in taxes overall.
More to come.
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