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Paul Skenes (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
Note: All information and statistics in this story are accurate as of publication on Friday, Dec. 13, at 8:30 a.m.
It’s entirely possible that a collector pulled the 1/1 Paul Skenes Debut Patch weeks ago, and has kept it quiet while mulling their options.
Take the Pirates’ bounty of 30 years of season tickets and much more? Put it up for auction and possibly make seven figures? Or just top-load it and stare at it lovingly while the rest of the hobby goes crazy trying to find it?
But it’s also entirely possible that the most coveted card in recent memory still sits in an unopened pack, all while the interest (and prices) for 2024 Topps Chrome Update continues to grow at an absolute fever pitch.
“Debut Patches are a game-changer in the rookie card market,” said Thomas Fish, co-owner of Blowout Cards. “The concept of featuring an actual game-worn patch from a player’s first game adds an unprecedented level of authenticity and significance. Demand for Topps Chrome Update this year has been insane and continues to be.”
It was one month ago today that Chrome Update was released, with 251 Rookie Debut patches sprinkled throughout its four formats:Hobby Boxes, Jumbo Boxes, Breakers’ Delight Boxes and Mega Boxes.
30 days in, here’s a look at the most fun baseball card chase of the year.
Who Has & Hasn’t Been Found
As of Friday morning, Dec. 13, a total of 164 of the 251 patches have already been found, or roughly 65%.
As a reminder, Baseball America’s statistics are compiled from confirmed pulls, whether it be from online breakers, eBay or other prominent channels. It’s entirely possible that more patches have been found but not yet made public.
The biggest names on the board were slow to emerge. Elly De La Cruz and Junior Caminero were both pulled early in the chase, but other names such as Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford have only been found in the past 72 hours.
(Note: Language warning later in this video of the Langford pull.)
The Caminero card graded a PSA 9 and is currently up for auction through Fanatics. It’s at $4,900 as of Friday morning, still with six days left to go.
The longterm fates of the other cards is as of yet unknown, but the De La Cruz card did grade a perfect 10.
But just as big a part of the story is who hasn’t been pulled. The biggest name still out there is Skenes, even after the Pirates placed that massive bounty on the card almost a month ago.
Other top players whose patches still have yet to be pulled include Jackson Merrill, Shota Imanaga, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Evan Carter and Jasson Dominguez.
That means that of the 87 patches remaining, six of them are tied to some of the most elite young players in baseball.
And other top-tier prospects such as Ronny Mauricio, Zach Gelof, Ceddanne Rafaela and Masyn Winn also still have yet to emerge.
Pricing
On launch day, Topps was selling Jumbo Boxes for $399.99, Hobby Boxes for $199.99 and Mega Boxes at $49.99.
Those prices seem like a pipe dream at this point.
Sales for those boxes on the secondary market have more than doubled. When retailers such as Target do get more inventory on Mega Boxes and post them at the $49.99 price point, they often sell out in minutes.
And Breakers’ Delight Boxes—which offer the best odds of hitting a debut patch and are only sold on the secondary market—have seen resale prices skyrocket from approximately $400 per box at launch day to about $700-750 per box at retailers such as Blowout Cards, Steel City Collectibles and Dave & Adam’s (that’s when they actually have them in stock, of course).
Team By Team
With Chrome Update so difficult to find—and so expensive—online PYT (“Pick Your Team”) breaks have become the most affordable way to try to hit certain patches. But a month into the chase, not all teams are created equal.
Because of the Skenes chase, it’s not uncommon to see the Pirates go for $1,000 or more in case breaks (even though nine of their 13 patches have already been pulled).
Baseball America’s Patch Tracker has helped collectors track which teams remain your best options if you’re trying to hit any patch, not just the big ones left on the board.
Some findings from our tracker, and no, not all teams are created equal:
- Four teams have no patches remaining to be found: the Diamondbacks (who had nine), Tigers (eight), Orioles (six) and Phillies (three).
- The Reds, who had 12 patches in the release, have just one remaining to be found: Jacob Hurtubise.
- Other teams with just one patch remaining: the Twins, Mets and Blue Jays.
- The teams with the most patches remaining? The Athletics and Giants have seven patches still unaccounted for (at least publicly), and the White Sox still have six.
What’s Next
Because of the Pirates’ bounty (and offers from online auction houses), Chrome Update will remain a red-hot product at least until the Skenes patch is pulled.
Last year’s big Debut Patch bounty was for Anthony Volpe, and that card took seven months to surface.
Given the increased interest in the product this year—and the rapid rate at which other patches are being found—it’s not likely that the Skenes patch will take quite that long to surface. That said, many would have said there was no way a month would have gone by since release without any word on the Skenes patch, too.
Once the Skenes patch is found, prices will likely settle down slightly. But with so many other top names still out there, the release looks to remain hot for some time to come.
And don’t forget that 2025 Topps Chrome Update will include patches for Dylan Crews, James Wood, and other rookies who made their debuts later in 2024, and who-knows-who heading into next season.
“We have seen a huge spike in interest with the players and their connection to the hobby ever since these patches started,” said Marc Becker, who posts as Bowman1of1 on X (Twitter) and Instagram, and who has one of the most comprehensive patch tracker sites. “While it’s a challenging conversation on who really these patches should be for, the player or the fan, it’s created an awesome chase for us all.”
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