Penn State is set for one of its biggest games in program history Thursday night when the Nittany Lions face Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl for a spot in the College Football Playoff national championship game.
Following wins over SMU and Boise State, James Franklin’s team will take a step up in competition this week, as the Fighting Irish have no shortage of future NFL players on both sides of the ball. These two teams are also similarly built, especially on defense, with both teams ranked among the top six nationally in opponent points per game, opponent yards per game and red zone scoring allowed.
Of course, the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions also have a deep history between them, facing each other 19 times dating back to 1913. The vast majority of those games took place when both schools were as good as any in the country in the 1980s, playing 12 consecutive years from 1981 to 1992. The series is also tied at nine wins each and one tie. This will be the first meeting between the two storied programs since a home-and-home series in 2006-2007.
So, how will the Nittany Lions fare against the Fighting Irish? Our staff offers up their predictions below.
Nate Bauer (Season Record – 13-2)
One piece of the equation already seems assured in this game. And that is, neither offense would appear to be in line to defenses that have been very good this season. Though, if one has a better opportunity than the other, Penn State would seem to have that edge.
Flatly, Penn State has recent history facing one-dimensional offenses. Not that Notre Dame and quarterback Riley Leonard can’t effectively throw the ball. But it’ll take a successful employment of the run and pass to keep this Nittany Lion defense off balance. And at this point, I’m not sure I see that happening, particularly if Jeremiyah Love is banged up. A Notre Dame team that has run the ball successfully all season will have to do so again against a Penn State defense that is most susceptible to it when playing offenses that can threaten effectively with the pass.
On the other hand, giving both defenses an edge over both respective offensive counterparts in terms of how the game is played and shaped, the handful of plays that can swing an outcome would appear to be a Penn State advantage. From Drew Allar to Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, from Tyler Warren to Trey Wallace and Omari Evans, Penn State has a trigger man and targets who can splash. Against a defense of Penn State’s quality, I have some questions as to whether Notre Dame can say the same.
Special teams play, penalties, explosive plays, and turnovers are the elements that can figure most prominently into games with evenly matched teams. In nearly every area, that’s what this game is shaping up to be.
Penn State: 26
Notre Dame: 20
Sean Fitz (Season Record – 15-0)
Two great defenses against offenses that may not be the most explosive out there? By the rules of sports gambling, this one is somehow going over. But seriously, a repeat of what we saw in the Sugar Bowl wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world. Notre Dame shut down Georgia and turned it into a slog, dictating everything after a late first half turnover that the Irish were able to turn into the game’s first touchdown.
Penn State should provide a more balanced challenge for the Fighting Irish, who will send the waves at Drew Allar to try to rattle the second-year starter. The Nittany Lions weren’t great at handling the blitz last weekend, so that’s big on the to-do list this week. The good news is that Penn State’s most reliable counters, tight end Tyler Warren and running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, have been healthy and could present challenges. Of course, someone will also need to step up on the outside. The Fighting Irish have been among the best teams in college football at taking the ball away, so Allar and the Nittany Lions need to be extra careful when playing in safety Xavier Watts’ neighborhood.
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Defensively, Abdul Carter’s status looms large heading into Thursday. Both defensive lines have dealt with injuries, so maybe there’s some give there on both sides. Penn State needs to account for Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard’s legs and try to shut down a run-heavy attack. Once again, Penn State’s linebackers need to come up big.
These two teams largely mirror one another, so it wouldn’t be a shock if this one came down to kickers. Ryan Barker has been good since taking over for Penn State, while Notre Dame’s Mitch Jeter — a question mark all year — made three big kicks last week. It should be a fun one in Miami Gardens.
Penn State: 26
Notre Dame: 23
Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 14-1)
This may be one of the most difficult games for the Penn State football team to predict this year. There’s been a clear difference in every game that the team has played in 2024. Ohio State and Oregon were higher-ranked and more talented overall. Picking Penn State in those situations was an act of faith and belief in improved outcomes over what was presented on film. In every other game, Penn State was clearly superior and would have to play poorly to lose.
Notre Dame represents the first team on equal footing with Penn State from a talent and play perspective. Each team has strengths and weaknesses that could manifest in multiple outcomes. If Penn State’s offense plays a complete game, that side will win. If Notre Dame’s defense and run game can control the flow of play, the Irish can find their way to a national championship.
But even then, if Penn State plays a standard game, with intermittent big plays on offense, frustrating inconsistency, and sustained defensive drives ending in field goals, it can win this game.
So, let’s flip a coin because that’s truly how it feels.
I lied about flipping a coin in my head; I’m picking Penn State.
Penn State: 31
Notre Dame: 27
Matt Herb (Season Record – 14-1)
The number that jumps out at you from Notre Dame’s stat sheet is its plus-18 turnover margin. The Irish rank third in the FBS in that category, with a nation-leading 31 takeaways, including six interceptions by star safety Xavier Watts.
Penn State was very good at collecting turnovers in its first two College Football Playoff games, totaling seven takeaways against SMU and Boise State. To put that number in perspective, none of the other 77 teams that have played at least one postseason game this year have more than five. The Lions have been pretty good all season in that department, but Notre Dame has been on another level when it comes to generating turnovers and converting them into points. Its fumble recovery late in the first half against Georgia, which set up a short-field touchdown on the very next play, was arguably the turning point in its 23-10 Sugar Bowl victory.
You look at the stats, and these are two evenly matched opponents. They’ve both got injury problems, with key players such as Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love and Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter likely to be limited, if they’re available at all. This feels like the kind of game that could come down to a turnover or two, and it’s hard to ignore the success the Irish have had in that area all year long.
Notre Dame: 24
Penn State: 20
Greg Pickel (Season Record – 15-0)
There have been some tough games to pick this season. But, none of them were as difficult as this one. Notre Dame and Penn State are very similar teams. They each have terrific defenses and offenses that prefer to move the ball on the ground. Both have major player question marks, too, as no one knows if Lions All-American Abdul Carter will play, and the same goes for Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love. The outlook for both teams changes significantly if either is out. We’ll assume though that both are available.
All told, Penn State has a rest edge, a better passing attack, and a better pass rush. That leads to a narrow win on Thursday night.
Penn State: 24
Notre Dame: 20
Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 15-0)
I’m with Greg: this is easily the most difficult game of the season to predict. However, the fact that these two teams mirror each other in so many ways is also why this is a dream scenario for Penn State to make the national championship. Notre Dame isn’t 2019 LSU or 2022 Georgia. Don’t get me wrong, the 2024 Fighting Irish are a very good team, but as far as opportunities go, Penn State could make the playoff the next five years and won’t get a draw as good as they did this year.
Offensively, Penn State has been excellent at rushing the ball in its past three games. They’ll need to find success for a fourth straight game if they’re going to win because if I had to pick between Notre Dame’s secondary or PSU’s wide receivers, I’m leaning toward the Irish. While Penn State fans always want to see Allar be a bit more aggressive, this secondary has proven over and over again that they’ll make quarterbacks pay.
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But in a lot of ways, the same can be said on the other side of the ball. Notre Dame has been excellent all season at grinding out extra yards after contact, but unlike Penn State’s two-headed attack, lead tailback Jeremiyah Love isn’t 100 percent coming into this game. Just like with Abdul Carter, Love’s status is a major storyline.
I think this game will come down to Andy Kotelnicki vs. Al Golden. I also believe that Penn State has been tested a bit more than Notre Dame throughout the entire season. Those learning opportunities will prove to be key.
I never thought I’d be predicting Penn State to advance to the national championship game when we wrote our first predictions back in August, but as I mentioned above, if not now, when?
Penn State has to take advantage of this opportunity. I think they will.
Penn State: 24
Notre Dame: 20
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