The College Football Playoff Quarterfinals get started on New Year’s Eve with Penn State taking on Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
Boise State is the Group of Five representatives in the CFP but isn’t given much of a chance in the eyes of oddsmakers, entering this one as double-digit underdogs against Penn State. The Nittany Lions looked the part of a National Championship contender against SMU in its home game in the first round, using two pick-sixs to get past the Mustangs, setting up this quarterfinal showdown.
Will Penn State have the answer for Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty? Can the Broncos provide a stunner in the CFP?
Here’s our betting preview for the Fiesta Bowl.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 52.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Penn State
Drew Allar: Allar continues to play clean football. The Penn State offense revolves around its running game, but the Nittany Lions quarterback continues to showcase sound decision-making and mobility in the pocket. On the season, Allar has passed for over 3,000 yards with a three-to-one touchdown to interception ratio. He will face the Boise State defensive line that is second in the country in sacks this season.
Boise State
Ashton Jeanty: The Heisman Trophy runner-up will face his stiffest test of the season against an elite Penn State defensive line. Jeanty has been rarely denied this season, putting up a top-five running back season ever with 2,497 yards on the ground and 29 touchdowns for the Broncos.
The Boise State offense is going to be up against it facing the Penn State defensive line that ranks top 10 in major rush-stopping categories including defensive line yards, EPA/Rush, and yards per carry.
The Broncos offense revolves around Jeanty, who averages 26 carries and 192 yards per game. However, the team’s ability to lean on Jeanty has masked the limited passing game the group has to offer.
Maddux Madsen has put together an impressive stat line this season, but digging under the hood shows that he has benefited from playing alongside Jeanty and in favorable situations. While he has 22 touchdown passes to only three interceptions, Madsen has made only nine big-time throws to 16 turnover-worthy plays.
Given that the Penn State defensive line should be able to keep a lid on Jeanty more than other teams have, there may be more on Madsen’s plate in this game. However, Madsen has struggled under pressure this season, making only one big-time throw to eight turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
So, can Penn State pounce on Boise State’s defense?
The Broncos’ defense has been boom or bust all season. The team ranks second in the country in sacks, but the group has been vulnerable to big plays, outside the top 90 in explosive play rate. Most importantly, the group has struggled against the pass, ranking outside the top half of the country in EPA/Pass.
While Penn State is centered around its dual-threat run game between Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, I believe that this game should set up nicely for Allar to have a big game through the air.
The Nittany Lions are a top 10 in EPA/Pass and sacks allowed, so the group should be well-equipped to handle Boise State’s defensive line and set up opportunities down the field for Allar and co.
However, Penn State has proven confident in its defense and content to limit its opponents and lean on its ground game, especially in a favorable game state.
Boise State ranks 95th in seconds per play and Penn State is 105th, so there may be limited snaps in this one. Further, given the tough matchup for the Boise State offense, I believe we are primed for a defensive-minded Penn State victory.
PICK: Penn State -10.5, Under 52.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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