Indiana is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, needing to continue racking up Big Ten wins in order to stay in the mix for a bid to the “Big Dance.”
After a torrid second half against Purdue as the team won by double digits at home, the Hoosiers have remained in Bloomington, hosting Penn State as modest favorites. The Nittany Lions have struggled for much of Big Ten play, but have won two straight in hopes of building some late season momentum.
Here’s how to bet on this Big Ten matchup.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 149.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Penn State
Ace Baldwin UNDER 13.5 Points (-104)
The Penn State offense struggled against Indiana in the first meeting from the perimeter, shooting 14% from deep, which included Baldwin, who missed all six of his perimeter shots.
The senior guard has struggled throughout conference play from deep, shooting 27% from beyond the arc, but he has made up for it with a top five free throw rate in Big Ten games.
However, against an Indiana team that has length on the interior and a top 100 opponent free throw rate, I believe this matchup doesn’t set up well for Baldwin.
Indiana
Luke Goode OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+178)
Goode has been a key cog in the Hoosiers’ late season surge, shooting 44% from deep in Big Ten play, the ninth best mark.
The Illinois transfer has continued to get plenty of shots from the perimeter, taking at least four 3-point shots in seven of the last nine games while averaging over two makes per game.
So, why shoot for the alternate mark? Penn State’s defense is 15th in Big Ten 3-point field goal percentage allowed and forces the second highest assist rate in the league, which is all Goode feasts on as he is a deadeye catch-and-shoot threat.
I’ll shoot for a big plus money number on Wednesday.
Since the start of February, Penn State has played much slower. Still ranked inside the top 60 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, the group has been ranked 122nd since the start of the month according to Bart Torvik.
In that time, Penn State has gone under in four of six games. Now, the group is on the road against an Indiana team that has been much improved on the defensive side of the ball, ranked top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Torvik since the start of February.
The group has protected the ball well also, 25th in turnover percentage while playing at a bottom 100 tempo. That’s key against the heavy ball pressure of Penn State as the Hoosiers need to be mindful of the quick hitting Nittany Lions offense that feasts off of its ability to turn the opponent over.
However, Indiana has been an abysmal shooting group, hitting 25% of its threes this month, bottom five in the country.
While I can’t count on Indiana’s offense to put up a big number, I can rely on its revitalized defense to keep a lid on a slower Penn State offense that may be willing to limit the possessions.
The first meeting stayed under the total of 157.5 with the Hoosiers winning 77-71 back on January 5th, and despite being adjusted down, I’m willing to go to the under again.
PICK: UNDER 149.5 ( -105, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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