Pirates don’t want to trade Paul Skenes. But they’d have to weigh these 5 prospect packages

The Pittsburgh Pirates have no plans to trade Paul Skenes. That’s what they’re saying publicly through general manager Ben Cherington, and what they’re making clear to other teams behind the scenes. But that doesn’t mean they won’t listen to inquiries and perform their due diligence in case they’re overwhelmed by a franchise-changing offer.

Skenes, 22, would be the most valuable trade asset in decades because he has more than four years of team control remaining and is the hardest type of player to acquire in the major leagues: a true ace, face of the franchise and fan favorite.

As if that weren’t enough, Skenes is making $740,000 this year, won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2027 and even in arbitration is likely to remain a huge bargain in comparison to his value. So he’s an affordable ace.

The Pirates have the second-worst record in the National League (20-36), ahead of only the historically bad Colorado Rockies. They’re already 14.5 games out of first place in the NL Central and 11.5 games back of the final wild-card spot. They are on pace to lose more than 100 games this season. They’ll have a hard time topping the 76 wins they collected in each of the past two seasons and are likely headed for a seventh straight losing campaign.

Still, the Pirates’ plan for now is to play better under new manager Don Kelly and build a stronger daily lineup. That would allow them to take advantage of a young starting rotation that has the potential to be a force in both the regular season and postseason in a couple of years, if their starters remain healthy. Pirates hitters rank last in the majors this season in runs scored and 29th in OPS.

Meanwhile, Skenes has a 2.10 ERA in his first 34 starts in the majors, including a 2.36 mark through 11 outings this season.

Under owner Bob Nutting, the Pirates know that they’re never going to commit the $350 million to $400 million it would take to prevent Skenes from reaching free agency. (Pittsburgh’s franchise-record signing was an eight-year, $106.75 million contract to outfielder Bryan Reynolds in 2023; the club’s record free-agent signing was a three-year, $39 million deal to lefty Francisco Liriano in 2015.)

And although the Pirates have the option of trading Skenes at any point between now and the 2029 trade deadline, they also know that waiting comes with the risk of future shoulder or elbow injuries. His trade value will never be higher than it is right now, at least in theory.

The problem for the Pirates — well, one of their problems — is that they don’t have a lot of valuable trade chips at the major- or minor-league level, they don’t have a stream of top prospects waiting in the wings to help the big-league club anytime soon and they’ve established they don’t want to spend significant money in free agency.

Therefore, how do they expect to improve enough to contend? Perhaps trading Skenes isn’t as far-fetched as you’d think.

Let’s consider the types of trade offers it would take to get the Pirates to at least take a look. Here are five teams with the young talent to put together such a package and potential offers they could make for the reigning NL Rookie of the Year.

Now, I understand fans of these five teams may say that this is way too much talent to trade for a single player. I get that sentiment. But this is Paul Skenes, a franchise-changing ace with four more years of team control after this season.

In 2022, Juan Soto had two and a half years of team control remaining when he headlined a blockbuster trade between the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals that brought back outfielder James Wood, shortstop C.J. Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, outfielder Robert Hassell III and right-hander Jarlin Susana, along with first baseman Luke Voit — and Skenes is more valuable now than Soto was at that stage based on his team control and potential impact for a contending team.

To land Skenes in a trade, it would take parting with an uncomfortable amount of young talent, and beyond that, perhaps require an overpay for the Pirates even to consider it.

Here are five theoretical deals that could at least serve as starting points if Pittsburgh were willing to deal its ace.

---

1. Chicago Cubs

Proposed package: RHP Cade Horton, 3B Matt Shaw, OF Kevin Alcántara, SS Juan Tomas

The Pirates would acquire Horton, the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, who could immediately go into their rotation, and he’d come with an extra year of control than they have with Skenes. Shaw could be moved to second base. Alcántara could be promoted to the majors to play left field, and he’d be an instant upgrade in the Pirates’ lineup. Tomas, 17, is a solid prospect who could develop into their long-term solution at shortstop. Meanwhile, Skenes would make the first-place Cubs a real October threat.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Proposed package: C Dalton Rushing, OF Andy Pages, LHP Jackson Ferris, RHP Landon Knack

The Dodgers could offer the Pirates a long-term answer at catcher (Rushing) and a solution for left field (Pages), improving their lineup for this season and years to come. Ferris, 21, isn’t ready for the majors yet, but has the stuff to become a top-of-the-rotation starter if his command and control improve. Knack would slot into the Pirates’ rotation right away, effectively replacing Skenes. On the other side of the trade, the Dodgers’ postseason rotation, if healthy, could be Skenes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow. Yikes!

3. Boston Red Sox

Proposed package: OF Roman Anthony, 2B/SS Franklin Arias, 1B/OF Justin Gonzales, RHP Luis Perales

To start the package, the Red Sox could offer Anthony, the top position-player prospect in baseball, whom the Pirates could promote to the majors immediately, giving him a chance to win NL Rookie of the Year this season. They’d also improve their longer-term future by acquiring a middle infielder in Arias, a power bat in Gonzales and a power arm in Perales. Meanwhile, for Boston, a rotation led by Skenes and Garrett Crochet would be a game-changer.

4. Detroit Tigers

Proposed package: OF Max Clark, SS Bryce Rainer, RHP Jaden Hamm, RHP Owen Hall

This potential Tigers offer would give the Pirates solutions up the middle with two former first-round picks: Clark, a 20-year-old center fielder, and Rainer, a 19-year-old shortstop, both of whom should develop into All-Star caliber players. Clark could be promoted to the majors soon with the Pirates moving Oneil Cruz to right field and Reynolds to left field. Rainer is a few years away. And the Pirates would also receive two solid pitching prospects in Hamm, 22, and Hall, 19, who are currently pitching at Double A and Low A, respectively.

For Detroit, just imagine a rotation headed by Tarik Skubal and Skenes — the double SKs. The Tigers could roll out those two aces, followed by Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize, Reese Olson and Jack Flaherty. That rotation would make them the American League favorites this October.

5. New York Mets

Proposed package: OF Carson Benge, 1B Ryan Clifford, SS/OF Jett Williams, RHP Brandon Sproat

The Mets could offer arguably their four best prospects for Skenes. Sproat could effectively replace Skenes in the Pirates’ rotation immediately, while Benge, Clifford and Williams would give them a trio of bats who would improve their lineup in the long term. This is the weakest package of the five, but among this group of potential trade partners, the Mets are the team that needs Skenes the most. He’d pair with Kodai Senga to lead a rotation that surprisingly tops the majors in ERA (2.85) this season.

---

Again, by all indications, the Pirates are not going to trade Skenes before this year’s deadline. However, never say never — when it comes to baseball trades, anything can happen. And, as agonizing as it would be for Pittsburgh fans, the Pirates’ best pathway back to respectability is probably to trade him.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)

This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.