The Pirates provided an ominous update on one of their most promising young players Wednesday, when manager Derek Shelton announced that righty Jared Jones would have his next start skipped due to elbow discomfort (link via Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Jones first experienced discomfort during his most recent bullpen session earlier this week. The team has already had imaging performed and is seeking a second opinion before proceeding with a firm diagnosis and recovery timetable, per director of sports medicine Todd Tomcyzk.
The obvious hope will be for a minor issue that sees the talented 23-year-old return to the mound in short order. Any talk of a pitcher skipping a start due to elbow trouble without a firm diagnosis will naturally create concern, however, especially for someone whose future is as bright as that of Jones.
The 44th overall pick back in 2020, Jones pitched his way into top prospect status as he climbed the minor league ladder and broke camp in the Pirates’ rotation last year. He came roaring out of the gates, too, pitching to a 2.63 ERA with elite strikeout and walk rates through his first seven starts. He hit a rough patch beginning at the end of May and by early July was on the injured list due to a lat strain that would sideline him for about six weeks.
At the time of the injury, Jones had pitched 91 innings of 3.66 ERA ball with a strong 26.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He was averaging 97.3 mph on his heater, inducing swinging strikes at a huge 15.4% clip, and generally looked the part of a mid-rotation starter at the very least — with the stuff and bat-missing ability to produce like a front-of-the-rotation arm. His velocity held when he returned from that lat injury, but his location wasn’t as sharp; Jones walked 9% of his hitters, induced far fewer swings off the plate and gave up far more contact within the strike zone. He finished out the season with a 4.14 ERA in 121 1/3 innings — a solid showing with plenty of hint for further upside.
Jones has looked sharp this spring. He’s pitched 12 innings and held opponents to three runs on eight hits and six walks with 17 punchouts. Again, that command isn’t as sharp as it was pre-injury in 2024, but he’s missing bats and hasn’t experienced any drop-off in the quality and power of his arsenal.
If Jones is shelved to begin the season, the Pirates would run with a rotation including Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney and Bailey Falter. Options for the final spot in the rotation would include prospects Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows. The former two are still in camp but not yet on the 40-man roster. The latter pair is on the 40-man roster, but both have already been optioned. Of course, with Jones ailing, either could be summoned to the majors to replace him.
Jones accrued a full year of big league service time in 2024. He’s still controllable through the 2029 season and isn’t slated to reach arbitration until the 2026-27 offseason.
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