While we fully expect Cooper Flagg to keep rolling tonight, we’re not so sure it’ll be enough for Duke to cover this massive 14.5-point spread against Pittsburgh.
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The No. 4-ranked Duke Blue Devils welcome the Pittsburgh Panthers to Cameron Indoor Stadium in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday night.
The Blue Devils have been dominant lately but my Pittsburgh vs. Duke predictions are backing the visitors on a hefty spread. Here are my free college basketball picks for this ACC showdown on January 7.
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Pittsburgh vs Duke prediction
My best bet
Pittsburgh +14.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Duke Blue Devils are on an eight-game winning streak, with their last five victories coming by more than 20 points.
That said, this is too many points to spot the Pittsburgh Panthers, who are No. 22 in the KenPom ratings and have won five in a row. The Panthers have three returning starters from the squad that upset the Blue Devils in Durham last year, so don’t expect them to wilt under the bright lights at Cameron Indoor.
Guard play is also crucial in college hoops and Pitt might have the better backcourt in this matchup. Ishmael Leggett (17.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.7 spg) and Jaland Lowe (17.4 ppg, 6.1 apg, 1.9 spg) make up one of the best ball-handling duos in the ACC. In addition, senior guard Damian Dunn (11.1 ppg on 49 FG%) could return to the lineup after missing the last seven games following thumb surgery.
The Panthers are 17th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and while they have cracks on defense (43rd in adjusted defense), they can slow down Duke. Pitt is 19th in transition defense, per ShotQualityBets, and limits foes to 30% shooting from deep, which is important against a Duke side that takes 47.7% of its shots from long range.
Besides an ugly road loss to Mississippi State when Pitt couldn’t hit a shot, and the Bulldogs seemingly couldn’t miss, the Panthers have played well against quality competition. They beat West Virginia by 24 points in November, edged Ohio State on the road, and lost a close neutral site game to Wisconsin.
Cooper Flag prop pick
Pick: Cooper Flagg Over 19.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Projected NBA first-overall pick Cooper Flagg is living up to lofty expectations. The freshman leads Duke in points (17.4), rebounds (8.4), assists (3.6), and blocks (1.3) per game. Flagg’s outside shot looked shaky at the start of the season, but his jumper has been silky-smooth lately, and he’s been more assertive with the ball.
Flagg is coming off a 24-point performance against SMU and has dropped 20+ points in five of seven games since the start of December. The two contests during that span where he went below that number came in blowout wins against Georgia Tech and Incarnate Word, where he took a backseat to his teammates.
Pittsburgh vs Duke same-game parlay
Pittsburgh +14.5
Cooper Flagg Over 19.5 points
Under 143
I’m betting on the Panthers to cover, but I don’t expect them to fill up the basket at their usual rate. After all, Duke is third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 271st in adjusted tempo.
While the Panthers have a sizzling effective field goal percentage of 61.9% at home, that number has plummeted to 47.8% on the road. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are third in the country in opponent eFG% (41.7%), and that ticks down to 38.6% at home.
With that dominant defensive play, the Under is 23-8-1 in Duke’s last 32 games, and backing that Under along with the Over on Flagg’s points creates a nice multiplier for this SGP.
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Pittsburgh vs Duke odds
Pittsburgh vs Duke live odds
Pittsburgh vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh +13.5 | Duke -13.5
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +600 | Duke -900
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 | Under 143.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pittsburgh vs Duke betting trend to know
Pittsburgh has gone a sizzling 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Pittsburgh vs. Duke.
How to watch Pittsburgh vs Duke
| Location: | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-7-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Pittsburgh vs Duke key injuries
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