If there’s one standout trait about the Mariners headed in 2025, it’s their elite rotation; Seattle has the most impressive collection of young, cost-controlled starting pitching talent in the majors right now. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo combined for more than 700 innings of 3.18 ERA baseball in 2024. Gilbert, who turns 28 in May, is the oldest of the group and the quartet has a combined 17 seasons of team control remaining.
That crop of talented young starters is the envy of the rest of the league, but if there’s a second standout trait about the 2025 Mariners it’s their questionable offense. Cal Raleigh is among the best offensive catchers in the game, but the lineup offers little certainty outside of him. Julio Rodriguez has superstar upside but didn’t show it for much of last year as he entered July hitting just .247/.297/.327. Randy Arozarena managed an excellent 11.7% walk rate down the stretch after being traded to the Mariners midseason, but hit just five home runs in 54 games and was worth just 1.9 fWAR overall last year between his time in Seattle and Tampa.
The trio of Raleigh, Rodriguez, and Arozarena all project to be above average hitters in 2025, but the rest of the lineup is well below average. Victor Robles enjoyed a career year after joining the Mariners midseason last year, but his elite performance in Seattle was carried by a .388 BABIP. Between that extreme good fortune with batted ball luck and his career .236/.311/.356 (81 wRC+) slash line prior to joining the Mariners, it’s hard to expect more than league average production from Robles in 2025. Dylan Moore and Luke Raley both posted solid numbers in 2025 but are platoon players who can’t be relied on in everyday roles, while J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver were all well below average hitters in 2024.
The club’s only addition to the offense to this point has been Donovan Solano, who posted solid numbers in 2024 but figures to join Moore and Raley as another part-time player. A combination of Moore, Raley, and Solano seem likely to be capable of handling first and second base, but the club’s lineup still has a gaping hole at the hot corner after non-tendering Josh Rojas and declining Jorge Polanco’s club option. MLBTR explored the third base market as it pertains to the Mariners earlier this month, but none of the free agent options that fit their budget and lower-level trade candidates available are particularly inspiring.
The Mariners have been hesitant to trade from their excellent rotation, only reluctantly listening to offers on pricey veteran Luis Castillo and seemingly shutting down discussions regarding their young core of arms entirely. But shopping a cost-controlled, elite starting pitcher could open up new possibilities for the club to add impact talent that wouldn’t have been available otherwise. The Red Sox reportedly dangled an impact youngster in first baseman Triston Casas in exchange for either Miller or Woo earlier this winter, and it’s easy to imagine rotation-needy clubs offering similarly impactful talent in exchange for a young arm of that caliber.
Dangling Gilbert or Kirby would surely land the Mariners an even more enticing package in exchange given their solid track records of front-of-the-rotation work in the majors to this point. The Orioles, for example, have a deep group of positional talent but are in need of an impact starter. It’s not impossible to imagine Baltimore being willing to part with an established young talent like Jordan Westburg as the headliner in a package for someone like Gilbert, perhaps packaged with a less impactful cost-controlled arm like Dean Kremer to ease the blow to Seattle’s rotation.
Turning away from the Orioles, Mark Vientos of the Mets and Matt McLain of the Reds are among the other high-end, cost-controlled third basemen who the Mariners could theoretically seek as a headliner in a package for one of their top starters, though neither is quite as valuable as Westburg. Of course, such deals are easier to propose than actually execute. While a team like Cincinnati packaging McLain with one of their own rotation arms like Nick Lodolo in order to land an elite talent like Gilbert could make sense on paper, the injury history of both players could give the Mariners plenty of pause about giving up one of their most valuable assets for little in the way of certainty and the Reds may be equally hesitant to offer up two established players with All-Star upside in exchange for one.
That’s just one example, of course, but it’s equally difficult to imagine the Mariners lining up on the right trade package for a player as valuable as Gilbert or Kirby with the vast majority of rival clubs. High-end, cost-controlled starting pitching is the single most desirable asset in the sport, and while fans of rival teams have long dreamed of their GM working out a trade with Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to bring one of the Mariners’ young aces to town they’d surely start feeling queasy about the possibility upon seeing just how much their team would need to part with in order to land such a coveted talent.
If you were in the Mariners’ shoes, how would you approach the situation? Would you take the same course Dipoto has and simply refuse to seriously entertain offers for your elite group of young pitchers, looking to upgrade the team in other ways like by dealing Castillo? Would you listen to offers while holding firm on a high asking price? Or would you compromise on the value of one of your top assets in order to help bolster an offense in desperate need of impact? Have your say in the poll below:
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