The SP+ metric guru Bill Connelly of ESPN released his updated post-spring power rankings earlier this week.
When analyzing what happened throughout the offseason and spring transfer portal, SP+ does a great job assigning a numerical value to each program’s expected performance. The rankings will change as we get closer to the start of the season, but for now, they provide an important reference point as we prepare for 2025.
A reminder on SP+: It is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.
In the case of the Big 12, the updated SP+ rankings provide further clarity on how the conference stacks up now that it is entering year two after its most recent expansion. After Big 12 newcomer Utah struggled to live up to being picked as the preseason favorite, and Colorado and Arizona State broke through, the conference is set up for another season of wildness. Big 12 stalwarts TCU, Kansas State and Texas Tech are all legit conference title contenders.
Colorado will aim to repeat its 2024 success, but will do so without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Games do not get going for several months, so without any actual data, SP+ is our best tool to compare how the Buffs line up against their conference foes.
Here is where every Big 12 team falls in the post-spring SP+ rankings, including each team’s offensive and defensive rating.
16. Cincinnati Bearcats
SP+ Rating: -0.3 (No. 66 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 25.1 (No. 86)
- Defensive Rating: 25.4 (No. 49)
Houston was the worst Big 12 team in Connelly’s initial SP+ rankings, but Cincinnati has now taken that spot. The Bearcats are still not among the nation’s worst teams despite being last in the Big 12. SP+ gives them similar offensive and defensive ratings, but their defense should be a top-50 unit in the country. There won’t be any walkovers in the Big 12, and Cincinnati’s current ranking exemplifies that point.
15. UCF Knights
SP+ Rating: 0.4 (No. 61 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 27.8 (No. 57)
- Defensive Rating: 27.3 (No. 62)
Only one team in the Big 12 has a negative SP+ ranking, which shows the conference’s depth of decent but few elite teams. Under returning head coach Scott Frost, the Knights will be a changed program. Forty-four players have transferred out, and a whopping 40 have transferred, leading to a lower SP+ ranking.
SP+ Rating: 0.7 (No. 60 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 26.9 (No. 70)
- Defensive Rating: 26.5 (No. 57)
The run of five straight teams in the SP+ rankings continues with the Arizona Wildcats. Brent Brennan needs a good season to stay off the hot seat, but he still has quarterback Noah Fifita to build around. The second-year head coach has brought in 27 players from the transfer portal, but the key will be how the offense compensates for losing wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan.
13. Houston Cougars
SP+ Rating: 0.9 (No. 59 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 24.3 (No. 91)
- Defensive Rating: 23.4 (No. 36)
Houston should be better than the No. 13 team in the conference. They made one of the biggest jumps in SP+, moving from No. 78 to the top 60. The Cougars should be a talented defensive team, but the story of their season will come from how much their offense can pick up the slack. Bringing in the Big 12 No. 3-ranked transfer portal class should help.
12. Oklahoma State Cowboys
SP+ Rating: 0.9 (No. 58 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 30.9 (No. 40)
- Defensive Rating: 30.0 (No. 84)
Another riser in the latest SP+ rankings, OSU should be in line for a rebound season after going 0-9 in the Big 12 in 2024. Mike Gundy traditionally puts out a Cowboys team that competes for the conference title. While that would significantly exceed expectations this year, a step in that direction would go a long way.
11. West Virginia Mountaineers
SP+ Rating: 1.0 (No. 57 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 29.9 (No. 47)
- Defensive Rating: 28.9 (No. 73)
West Virginia moved up a few places from No. 64 in the updated rankings. The Mountaineers are a tough team to pin down entering 2025, but have added some talented players through the transfer portal, and newly hired head coach Rich Rodriguez rebuilds the team he left several seasons ago.
SP+ Rating: 2.6 (No. 52 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 29.9 (No. 46)
- Defensive Rating: 27.2 (No. 60)
Colorado fell more than a point since Connelly’s initial rankings, and that is due to some key departures this spring, including running back Isaiah Augustave and cornerback Colton Hood. The Buffs should once again have an explosive offense no matter who’s under center, but they must run the football better than in the past two seasons. Defensively, multiple newcomers must remake a unit that improved significantly over the final few games of 2024.
9. Kansas Jayhawks
SP+ Rating: 3.0 (No. 50 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 32.0 (No. 31)
- Defensive Rating: 29.0 (No. 75)
Kansas should be a team to watch in the Big 12 this year under experienced head coach Lance Leipold and returning quarterback Jalon Daniels. The Jayhawks fell slightly in the updated rankings, moving down one spot.
SP+ Rating: 7.5 (No. 35 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 34.6 (No. 21)
- Defensive Rating: 27.1 (No. 58)
We now enter the teams with a legitimate shot at winning the Big 12 title. Baylor saw barely any movement in the latest rankings, and for a Dave Aranda-coached team, it is surprising to see the offense ranked higher than the defense. If anybody can improve a defense during the year, it is Aranda. Look out for the Bears as a preseason favorite in the Big 12.
7. Iowa State Cyclones
SP+ Rating: 11.0 (No. 32 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 31.5 (No. 33)
- Defensive Rating: 20.6 (No. 29)
Matt Campbell consistently has the Cyclones playing above their weight, and after one of the program’s best seasons last year, which led to a Big 12 title game appearance, Iowa State is back in the mix. Rocco Becht is once again leading the offense, and transfer wide receiver Chase Sowell is the top addition to the team.
6. Utah Utes
SP+ Rating: 11.0 (No. 31 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 28. 3 (No. 54)
- Defensive Rating: 17.3 (No. 16)
Utah appears to be back after a terrible season a year ago. Kyle Whittingham brought in former New Mexico offensive coordinator Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampler to reshape the offense. The defense should be one of the top units in the country, making the offense the key to the Utes’ success.
5. TCU Horned Frogs
SP+ Rating: 11.1 (No. 29 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 34.8 (No. 19)
- Defensive Rating: 23.7 (No. 38)
After being the No. 2 Big 12 team in the initial rankings, TCU fell back a few spots. However, the Horned Frogs increased significantly in their SP+ number from 10.5 to 11.1.
4. BYU Cougars
SP+ Rating: 11.5 (No. 27 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 32.2 (No. 29)
- Defensive Rating: 20.6 (No. 30)
BYU is another team with a strong chance at the Big 12 title. They are a balanced squad that returns most of its production from last year.
SP+ Rating: 11.8 (No. 26 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 38.9 (No. 9)
- Defensive Rating: 26.5 (No. 55)
The Red Raiders went all in on the offseason, and their updated SP+ ranking reflects that. They own the best transfer portal class in the Big 12 and the No. 2 class in the country. Texas Tech should have one of the best offenses in the nation and the top offense in the conference. Joey McGuire added several potential difference-makers this spring that should make a massive impact on the defensive side of the ball.
SP+ Rating: 12.2 (No. 22 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 32.6 (No. 26)
- Defensive Rating: 20.4 (No. 27)
The Big 12 might not have any teams in the top 15, but it is a deep conference in the middle. Sam Leavitt and Jordan Tyson will be key factors for the Sun Devil offense, which is losing star running back Cam Skattebo. After making the College Football Playoff last season, there are high expectations in Tempe for a repeat performance.
SP+ Rating: 15.6 (No. 18 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 35.7 (No. 14)
- Defensive Rating: 20.0 (No. 26)
Chris Klieman might be the most underrated coach in the Big 12. Kansas State has the right combination of a young ascending quarterback in Avery Johnson and talented skill positions alongside him. A good defense to complement the offense makes the Wildcats the team to beat in the conference.
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