Every objective follower of college football knows the College Football Playoff Selection Committee needs to rethink how it uses Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Strength of Record. They talked about it during last season’s cycle, but in the end, the loss column data points were given more weight.
It appears progress can be made on factoring SOS into selection decisions, and that progress can be implemented for the upcoming season’s Playoffs.
SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey has been clear that he does not support computer models outweighing the value of human decisions. Sankey recently said he wants to find the right balance “between human and machine.” In a recent packet produced by the SEC to highlight the comparative schedule strength of the SEC, five sets of metrics were used.
There will be some tightrope walking before any decisions are made about the expanded use of computer models. Many college football fans believe the models were mostly accurate in the BCS era, but there were also many detractors every season. Going back to something close to the old BCS format would be problematic.
Good news was reported this week by Ross Dellenger, who wrote that CFP director Rich Clark will present new ideas to the Playoff commissioners. Meeting this week in Asheville, NC, Clark will discuss possible “data points – to be used in playoff selection – that are more heavily weighted on a team’s strength of schedule, even using outside mathematicians and data analysts to assist in the endeavor.”
Alabama Football was not a legit 2024 Playoff team but …
Alabama football fans know well that two of last season’s Playoff teams, SMU and Clemson, finished the 2024 season with a Strength of Record (SOR) (as calculated by the ESPN FPI) lower than the Alabama Crimson Tide. That fact does not suggest that Alabama made a strong case for inclusion in the Playoffs. It does suggest the Crimson Tide with a final SOR of No. 17 had a better claim than SMU at No. 18, and possibly even ACC Champion Clemson at No. 25.
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