Predicting each Big Ten football team’s win-loss record in 2025

After winning two straight national championships, the Big Ten has reasserted its place atop the college football pecking order, but there’s plenty of competition waiting in the SEC to retake their mantle when the 2025 season comes around.

Especially with all the turnover taking place on the rosters of those two title teams, but the schools that played for the Big Ten crown a year ago are also well poised to strike and make a run when the College Football Playoff kicks off.

ESPN recently unveiled its full preseason 136-team college football rankings, a treasure trove of analytics and projections for how every team in the FBS will fare in 2025.

How do the big computer models expect the Big Ten to turn out this year? Let’s take a look at each team’s projected win-loss record for the coming season.

Ranked from worst to first

18. Purdue: 3-9

17. Northwestern: 4-8

16. Michigan State: 5-7

15. UCLA: 5-7

14. Wisconsin: 5-7

13. Rutgers: 5-7

12. Maryland: 5-7

11. Iowa: 6-6

10. Illinois: 6-6

9. Minnesota: 6-6

8. Washington: 7-5

7. Indiana: 7-5

6. Nebraska: 7-5

5. USC: 8-4

4. Michigan: 8-4

3. Oregon: 10-2

2. Penn State: 10-2

1. Ohio State: 10-2

─ The handover to Barry Odom isn’t expected to improve fortunes at Purdue too much this season, as it has the lowest win total expectation among Power Four teams, with games at Notre Dame, at Michigan, and at Washington, and against Ohio State, Illinois, and USC.

─ There’s plenty of mediocrity at the bottom of these Big Ten rankings, with five 5-7 teams, including a projection for Wisconsin that could spell trouble for Luke Fickell, while UCLA doesn’t have a lot to work with, aside from quarterback Nico Iamaleava.

Iowa will see some turnover on its superb defense, and should get better returns from its historically anemic offense after acquiring quarterback Mark Gronowski to lead Tim Lester’s attack, but a 6-6 projection is low, to say the least.

─ Likewise for Illinois, which broke out to win 10 games last season, but earns a meager 6-6 expectation from these rankings, despite playing a winnable schedule with games against Ohio State and USC at home.

Indiana won 11 games and made the College Football Playoff in Curt Cignetti’s astonishing debut, but some serious roster turnover has the ESPN computers in a panic about the Hoosiers’ chances, with road trips to Oregon, Iowa, and Penn State.

─ Dylan Raiola now has Dana Holgorsen onside to call the Nebraska offense, but there are big tests against Michigan at home and Penn State on the road.

USC fans aren’t going to be too excited by an 8-4 season and a fifth-place finish in the Big Ten, but at least the Trojans’ defense should look better again under D’Anton Lynn’s leadership.

Michigan goes to Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, and Michigan State, but hosts Ohio State in a year that will test Sherrone Moore’s tenure as he looks to rebuild a passing offense that was nonexistent last season.

─ The model puts Oregon just behind the Nittany Lions, given the Ducks have to go on the road to Happy Valley in that game, and are giving the home side a slight edge there, and Dan Lanning does have a notable question at quarterback.

─ ESPN’s computers favor Penn State just over Oregon, with vital consistency on the offensive side of the ball, as quarterback Drew Allar and tailbacks Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen return, while Jim Knowles takes over the defense.

Ohio State once again leads the way, despite replacing both coordinators, its quarterback, run game, and top two pass rushers. The opener against Texas and a home date against Penn State are big, as is the finale at Michigan.

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