The rankings for the first basemen listed here are for standard 5×5 Roto leagues (mixed universe). This format may be obsolete for those who play Points leagues, Head-to-Head, Best Ball, DFS or sim games. I try to note where format makes a difference, but it’s called “standard” for a reason, and we have to start somewhere.
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These rankings are for 2025 only. I ranked the players at the position they played the most but tried to note when they qualify elsewhere — and often, it makes more sense to draft them elsewhere.
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1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR
Last season, Guerrero followed up a ho-hum first half with a huge second half (.376/.450/.678). Looking back to the second half of 2022, he had hit .269 and slugged .462 for two full seasons, causing many — including myself — to have doubts. It’s easy to forget Vlad plays this year at age 26, with 819 games of major league experience under his belt. He plays a lot, averaging 159 games the past four years, and minor injuries probably explain much of the down stretch. If so, his baseline is last season’s second half and his runner-up MVP 2021 season, which is absolutely a first-round hitter, even with zero stolen bases. For me, he’s the narrow favorite as the best four-category hitter over Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez. And don’t forget the next two guys (below).
2. Bryce Harper, PHI
Objectively, his past three years aren’t worth that much. He has missed time — in fact, he hasn’t played a full season since 2019. Granted, Harper plays every game he can, having the very hard nose of Philly grit. I’ve been expecting a big season for a couple of years because that’s what a Hall of Famer does.
Yes, friends, there is a place for faith in our games, namely here. Nothing has changed for Harper as a hitter. He’s just an average runner, but so what? He’ll still throw in 10 steals.
3. Freddie Freeman, LAD
Freeman had a bit of a down year, but I figure Dodgers fans forgive him. The postseason has not inflated his price — everybody knows what they’re getting. The only question is longevity, and the answer is another question: Is Freddie a Hall of Famer? I think he is, and I will pay up within reason. He’s about 50/50 to have a late first-round season and is decidedly unlikely to have worse than a third-round season.
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4. Matt Olson, ATL
This is a good year to go the extra buck, but you old readers knew I would say that. He ebbs, he flows. He’s due to flow.
I could be wrong about Olson if he continues to ebb, which would pretty much mean he’s finished as a very good hitter at age 30, but there’s nothing to indicate he will. The other way I could be wrong is if everything averages out. Olson has played all 162 games for three years in a row. Anything close to that would virtually guarantee 100 runs and 100 RBI. Averaging out Olson means .254/.349/.512 and about 37 home runs — definitely a second-rounder in Points and OBP leagues.
5. Pete Alonso, NYM
Going by his K rate, he peaked in 2021-22 at around 26 years old. If that’s true, it’s textbook. Everyone expected a home run barrage from Alonso last year, and he ended with 34, 12 less than the year prior. I think he’ll top last year’s number this season.
It’s highly unorthodox to fill both first base and corner infield so early, but in some drafts — many drafts, I daresay — Harper, Olson and Alonso will be the best home run options on the board. If you draft one of them, you’ll be less desperate if another corner infield steal comes up later in the draft, in which case there’s the utility slot. Often, it’s actually good to solidify the utility spot rather than settling for the best hitter on the board in Round 22.
6. Josh Naylor, ARI
He traded average for power, and with 108 RBI, it worked. At age 27, Naylor could still achieve a higher average and maintain power, but lefty power has been brutal at Chase Field — actually the worst for the past three years. Maybe he’ll trade back some power, but his RBI potential looks just as good regardless.
7. Christian Walker, HOU
He’s getting on, turning 34 in March, but Walker seems stable, with no platoon split worries. He should bat right behind Yordan Álvarez in another nice RBI slot. The Astros are clearly not throwing in the towel by giving away money to an aging Walker, at three years and $60 million. Such extravagance seems only justifiable if they had kept Kyle Tucker, but without him, Houston is a weaker team. Maybe they actively didn’t want Tucker, but that’s mighty strange for a player so good.
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8. Jake Burger, TEX
Berger is a natural designated hitter who also qualifies at third base this year. Incremental improvement in his K rate means Burger is sustainable as he moves to a better lineup and hitter’s park. Likely to bat cleanup for Texas, Burger is capable of .275 with 40 home runs, and .255 with 32 is about the over/under.
9. Triston Casas, BOS
Casas handles lefties (.772 career OPS), and they played him every day when healthy, but the high-average part of high-average power will not happen with 31.7% Ks. Casas will never become Álvarez with those numbers, but he could become Olson or Alonso. At 25% Ks, he can get there, so that’s the bet. I would pay attention to any spring talk about his approach. In its absence, I will wimp out and split the difference between Olson/Alonso and Eugenio Suarez.
10. Vinnie Pasquantino, KC
People I respect continue to expect big things from Pasquantino, but I see more “pretty good” things than big things. He gets great contact and evident pop, but lots of fly balls and pull hitting put a cap on his AVG over time, and his home park hurts his power. He’s another one in a great RBI slot, though.
11. Paul Goldschmidt, NYY
The signs pointed to Goldschmidt’s decline, and he declined, so normally, we would expect further decline. But he can still hammer a meatball and will steal a base when they give it to him — 11 SBs with 23rd-percentile sprint speed. The Yankees lineup is much better than the Cardinals’, and Goldy will get a few cheap home runs.
12. Michael Busch, CHC
Last season, he homered in back-to-back games six times. With 21 home runs, I don’t think that’s a fluke, especially since Busch is your basic high-K/high-fly ball hitter. Those types tend to play streaky, which everyone knows but can’t quantify because there is no singular way to define a streak. Good defense and a respectable .712 OPS against lefties should keep him in the lineup.
13. Tyler Soderstrom, ATH
Soderstrom improved his K rate to 25% in 2024. He also tempered his extreme ground-ball ways, although they are still on the high side at 49%. He should get a park boost in Sacramento, he doesn’t have to worry about catching, and he posted a .279/.340/.512 line in September as a regular. He’s a nice fallback CI in mixed leagues.
14. Ryan Mountcastle, BAL
There are reasons to fear the Orioles will platoon him. But they haven’t so far, and despite a subpar, injury-marred campaign, he would have driven in 100 runs in an entire season. This year Baltimore brought left field in some, which should add back some of Mountcastle’s recently missing power. I’ll take him as my CI in a mixed league. He’s worth a little less in OBP leagues.
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15. Yandy Diaz, TB
Diaz is a fine major league hitter, but his ground ball tendencies continue to dampen his power. The Rays lineup is not great, and run production is not really Yandy’s thing, but all should get a boost in Tampa Bay’s new (temporary) ballpark, which has Yankee Stadium dimensions. If your power and speed are good at this point in the draft, Diaz makes some sense.
16. Rhys Hoskins, MIL
In my book, it says that if you don’t swing at strikes in the major leagues, you are asking to hit .214. Or .188. Hoskins’ career swinging strike rate is 9.2%, which is impressive for a power hitter and indicates he is still capable of hitting .250. His barrels are still right there. Guys like this fall into laps every year.
17. Michael Toglia, COL
Tough bid. Toglia is one of the more extreme Three True Outcome players around, with his strikeout problem — flailing at crooked stuff. And it’s worse than it looks since Coors Field has such excellent visibility. But his power plays anywhere and will, of course, play better in Denver, and he’s a good base-stealer even though he’s just an average runner. His current ADP of 213 can be a crucial bargain, but there is a chance Toglia hits .195 and finds himself in Triple-A Albuquerque in June. I’d rank him above Michael Busch in Head-to-Head and Best Ball leagues, where you get those Coors weeks. They’re about even in OBP leagues.
18. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN
He’s recovered from wrist surgery and played in the Arizona Fall League. He did next to nothing in his 29 early-season cold-weather games for the big club. Such slumps figure to be part of his game, the other being streaks of home runs to strengthen rosters. His fate will be decided by the ratio of one to the other. CES is not a big fly-ball hitter but does strike out a lot (28.6%) — he can hit for average if he strikes out just a little less. He did hit .322 in 946 minor league PAs. The bulk of his problem is a 37.3% rate of swings at pitches outside the strike zone. He should get a few extra home runs from his home park. There’s plenty of risk that a slow start becomes a nothing season, but he’s a good bet to approach 30 HRs if the Reds stick with him.
19. Luis Arráez, SD
As consistently great as his AVG is (.323 career), his career HR/SB per 150 games is 6/4. As a Runs asset but an RBI liability, Arráez is your basic specialty play. He can help fix a roster loaded with low-average power. Once in a while, at the draft table, adding power just happens, but there is usually too much low-average power available late to go chasing it early. Arráez also qualifies at 2B. He’s worth less in OBP leagues.
20. Nathaniel Lowe, WAS
Lowe is a decent major league hitter but not up to snuff at first base. Roto managers should check the spring box scores to see where he’s batting. Lowe is capable of better results than his 2024 campaign yielded, but probably not much better, so he’s more of a hole-filler in mixed leagues. He’s a helpful, boring regular for those few who still play in NL-only leagues.
21. Nolan Schanuel, LAA
Big lefty … contact hitter. His strike zone numbers are fiery red, and his power metrics are deep blue. With a .102 ISO, he needs to bat higher than .255, which is certainly possible, as he’s just 23 years old this year. Otherwise, he needs to hit for power, which is presumably why Schanuel was drafted in the first round. He has little speed but steals some bases, which gets him to about your average Roto hitter. He’s worth a little more in OBP leagues, more still in Points leagues, assuming he’s hitting at the top of the Angels lineup.
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22. Andrew Vaughn, CWS
No progress in 2024 — Vaughn’s stuck in what we might generously call mediocrity. About the only thing Vaughn has going for him is that he’s still here. Maybe what hasn’t killed him will make him stronger (as they tell me). More likely, he will up-and-down his way to .250 with 20 HRs — few walks, so a lot of outs — in a lowish batting order slot.
23. Jonathan Aranda, TB
Aranda hits too many ground balls (50.5%) for his pull-hitting style. It’s hard to see Aranda as more than a strict platoon, at best, but a finger injury might explain his disappointing numbers in 2024. I’m not 100% sure, but I think his 2023 slash of .339/.449/.613 in 95 games for Durham is signature significant. I’d take a shot with him in 50-man drafts, maybe even before Round 30.
Prospects with 2025 prospects
Bryce Eldridge, SF — If any lefty can beat Oracle Park, it’s a 6-foot-7 guy with bat speed. When Eldridge’s name came up, the Giants shut down trade talks for Tucker and Garrett Crochet. That says a great deal without necessarily helping anyone in 2025. But then making it to Triple-A at age 19 virtually guarantees he gets the call this year at some point. There’s almost no doubt Eldridge will hit some home runs, and we’ll see if he can contain the strikeouts.
Nick Kurtz, ATH — As with Eldridge, and maybe even more so, the combination of size and quickness guarantees he’ll make the majors. Kurtz has just 12 games of pro experience, but they promoted him to Double A after hitting four home runs in seven games for Single-A Stockton. His contact is pretty good, and he’s had more walks than strikeouts in college and his brief pro career, which is always a prime indicator and especially exciting for someone with his power. If you’re looking for an offbeat Rookie of the Year candidate, he’s your guy.
Deyvison De Los Santos, MIA — Serious power battles serious strikeouts. De Los Santos is very much a free-swinger, but he has hit a combined .287 in four minor league seasons, and he doesn’t turn 22 until halfway through this year. He may be worth a little chase with good spring news.
(Top photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Jonathan Dyer / Imagn Images)
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