Ranking NFL Offenses: Buffalo Bills No. 9

Last year, the Buffalo Bills overachieved in scoring (525 – 2nd) compared to their ranking in offensive yards (10th). Buffalo finished with a decline in passing yards (3,938 – 4,306 in 2023) and passing attempts (522 – 579 in 2023), showcasing the need for better receiving talent. In this year’s draft, the Bills added five defensive players over their first five rounds, followed by a TE, OT, and WR fliers. For this offense to maintain a high-level scoring success, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid must produce at a higher level on the field.

QB Josh Allen

RB1 James Cook

RB2 Ray Davis

WR1 Khalil Shakir

WR2 Keon Coleman

WR3 Joshua Palmer

TE Dalton Kincaid

WR4 Curtis Samuel

The best area of growth for Josh Allen last season was a lower turnover rate. He finished with a career low in interceptions (6), an area of weakness over the past three years (15, 14, and 18). In addition, Allen had five fumbles (two lost – 59 fumbles/24 lost over his first six years). His passing yards (3,731) and passing touchdowns (28) were five-year lows. Allen continues to be a beast with his legs at the goal line (102/531/12) while offering below-par accuracy (63.6%). Despite his regression flaws, the fantasy market lists him as one of the top two fantasy quarterbacks in 2025.

Throwback to Josh Allen’s MVP performance against the Lions #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/l1ZjYvltLR

— SleeperBills (@SleeperBills) May 6, 2025

The usage of James Cook can be frustrating at times in the fantasy market due to the Bills’ rotating in two other backs and Josh Allen sniping goal-line touchdowns. Buffalo’s increased willingness to run, especially in the red zone, led to Cook scoring 18 times in 2025. He gained over 1,000 rushing yards for the second consecutive season despite 30 fewer carries. The Bills also reduced his chances in the passing game (32/258/2).

For the year (including the postseason), Cook was on the field for 44.9% of Buffalo’s running back snaps. His scoring accounted for 40.9% of his fantasy points (266.70) in PPR formats. He ranks 14th at running back in early May in the high-stakes market.

Ray Davis was active in the Bills’ offense in six games (18.20, 11.70, 13.70, 10.90, and 14.50 fantasy points) while being a non-factor in 12 matchups (fewer than 4.00 fantasy points in each contest). He brings scoring value at the goal line, and Buffalo will give him some pass-catching chances (17/189/2). This year, Davis must outplay Ty Johnson (497 combined yards with four touchdowns and 18 catches) to reach a high ceiling.

In his third season with the Bills, Khalil Shakir emerges as their top receiving option (76/821/4 on 100 targets). Despite his success, he finished 37th in wide receiver scoring (182.50) in PPR formats. His top games (9/107 and 5/106/1) lacked explosiveness, but Shakir scored over 10.00 fantasy points in 14 of his 19 starts, giving him a consistency factor as a flex option in leagues with three wide slots in their starting lineup. He’ll be selected as an early WR4 again in 2025.

Just a reminder Khalil Shakir finished 2nd in the NFL last season in YAC

Only behind Ja’Marr Chase#BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/ILyfmNcbhv

— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) April 29, 2025

Keon Coleman has the look of a much better player in his rookie season, but his results on the field suggest pumping the brakes on his 2025 outlook. He missed four games midseason with a wrist injury. His catch rate (50.9) was extremely low, but the Bills used him as a deep threat (19.2 yards per catch, 12 catches of 20 yards or more, and four long bombs). Coleman has one catch or fewer in nine of his 16 games, showcasing his downside risk. His two tease showings (4/125 and 5/70/1) came in back-to-back starts before his injury. I view him as an upside flier with breakout value, but the fantasy market may overpay for him this year.

Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore, and Curtis Samuel will compete for possession targets. This combination of players does look better than Buffalo’s options in 2024, suggesting better passing stats for Josh Allen this year.

After success in his rookie year (73/673/2 on 91 targets), Dalton Kincaid went down as a fantasy bust in 2024. He finished 30th in tight end scoring (100.80) in PPR formats while sitting out four games (knee and collarbone issues). Over the first 10 weeks, Kincaid posted three double-digit games (13.10, 11.10, and 13.10) in fantasy points while being unplayable after Week 10. This fantasy draft season, he’ll be a borderline TE1, with a lot to prove on the field.

Buffalo has a top quarterback, and they will run the ball well again this year. They can’t beat the best teams in the league in the postseason without better production from their receiving options. On the surface, their wideouts and tight ends aren’t much better than the league average. With growth from Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, this outlook could be much better after the season.

Ranking NFL Offenses: New Orleans Saints Ranked Dead Last At No. 32

Ranking NFL Offenses: Cleveland Browns No. 31

Ranking NFL Offenses: New York Giants No. 30

Ranking NFL Offenses: Carolina Panthers No. 29

Ranking NFL Offenses: Tennessee Titans No. 28

Ranking NFL Offenses: New York Jets No. 27

Ranking NFL Offenses: Indianapolis Colts No. 26

Ranking NFL Offenses: Jacksonville Jaguars No. 25

Ranking NFL Offenses: New England Patriots No. 24

Ranking NFL Offenses : Seattle Seahawks No. 23

Ranking NFL Offenses: Pittsburgh Steelers No. 22

Ranking NFL Offenses: Arizona Cardinals No. 21