The Oregon Ducks have a lot to prove entering the 2025 college football season, looking to show that their Big Ten Championship a year ago was far from a fluke while also establishing themselves as national championship contenders once again under Dan Lanning in his fourth year at the helm.
It won’t be easy to do, with a new-look roster taking over in Eugene and a lot of young and talented players stepping into bigger roles. Fortunately, the Ducks won’t have a grueling schedule to deal with. In our most recent ranking of the toughest schedules in the conference, Oregon finds itself in the middle of the pack at No. 11 out of 18 teams. Trips to Penn State, Iowa, and Washington could prove tough, but the Ducks do get the benefit of hosting the likes of Indiana, USC, and Wisconsin.
Which of those games will prove to be the toughest, though? While we may have an idea, a tool that was released this week — ESPN’s Football Power Index — can help us.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
Here’s how the FPI see’s Oregon’s schedule broken down, from the easiest game on the docket to the toughest:
No. 12 — Week 1 vs. Montana State Bobcats
National FPI Rank: None
As an FCS team, Montana State doesn’t get an FPI score from ESPN, but don’t let that allow you to look past the Bobcats. Last season, they lost to the North Dakota State Bison in the FCS National Championship Game, which was their second loss in the title game since 2021. This is a talented and well-coached team that could surprise someone in Week 1.
No. 11 — Week 4 vs. Oregon State Beavers
National FPI Rank: No. 80 (-4.5)
This may be a great rivalry, but it likely won’t be a very great product on the field for quite a while. The two programs appear to be going in different directions thanks to conference realignment. As long as this game continues, we will have traditions staying alive, but as for interesting football, we may be out of luck for a while.
National FPI Rank: No. 74 (-3.6)
Northwestern might be a bit better this year than they were in 2024 thanks to a new QB in Preston Stone, but it’s hard to imagine that they’re going to be giving Oregon a major test this early in the season.
National FPI Rank: No. 67 (0.3)
As far as name brands go, this matchup between Oregon and Oklahoma State is a pretty solid non-conference clash, but based on where the Cowboys stand going into this year and their recent history, it likely won’t be too interesting of a game when all is said and done.
No. 8 — Week 8 at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
National FPI Rank: No. 55 (3.5)
Greg Schiano may be able to win some games in the Big Ten this year with a decent roster, but I don’t think Rutgers is going to be good enough to give the Ducks any trouble, even across the country on a long road trip.
No. 7 — Week 12 vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
National FPI Rank: No. 43 (5.2)
I’m interested to see what PJ Fleck can do with the Minnesota roster this year, but with Drake Lindsey under center, they probably won’t be among the top teams in the conference, and should be a big underdog on the road at Autzen.
No. 6 — Week 11 at Iowa Hawkeyes
National FPI Rank: No. 39 (6.3)
Iowa will go as far as transfer QB Mark Gronowski can take them this year. He has the talent to be really good for Iowa, coming over from South Dakota State as a high-level FCS QB, but whether or not that’s good enough to make the Hawkeyes dangerous in the Big Ten is a different question. Fortunately for Oregon, this game comes later in the season, so there shouldn’t be any surprises.
For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire!
No. 5 — Week 9 vs. Wisconsin Badgers
National FPI Rank: No. 38 (6.3)
Will Wisconsin be the home that Billy Edwards Jr. needs to reach his ceiling? That’s the central question for the Badgers this year. If the answer is yes, then this game late in the season in Eugene might be interesting. If not, I don’t think the Ducks will have any trouble with getting a win here.
For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire!
No. 4 — Week 7 vs. Indiana Hoosiers
National FPI Rank: No. 31 (8.3)
Indiana was the story of the year in the Big Ten last year, and if they can find the same magic in Fernando Mendoza as they did in Kurtis Rourke, then they could once again be a formidable foe. I wouldn’t bet against them at this point, but I still think Oregon’s talent wins out in this game. It also helps that the Ducks get Curt Cignetti and his squad at home in Eugene.
No. 3 — Week 14 at Washington Huskies
National FPI Rank: No. 27 (8.8)
The Huskies had a down year in 2024 with Jedd Fisch taking over, but don’t be surprised to see them bounce back in 2025, with Demond Williams under center and a solid roster around him. I think this game against Washington could be tougher than many Oregon fans want to admit, especially since it will take place up in Seattle, a tough place to play. It should be a fun year in the rivalry, regardless of the outcome.
For more Washington news and analysis, check out Huskies Wire!
No. 2 — Week 13 vs. USC Trojans
National FPI Rank: No. 19 (13.0)
Can USC live up to the hype and put together a solid season, or will they once again hover around .500 and have Lincoln Riley’s name in hot-seat conversations? That’s something that we have to wait and see, but regardless of how good they are, the rivalry with Oregon will be fun to watch late in the year with likely College Football Playoff spots on the line.
For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire!
No. 1 — Week 5 at Penn State Nittany Lions
National FPI Rank: No. 5 (21.5)
This is the game of the year for Oregon and undoubtedly the hardest one on the schedule. A neutral-site game against Penn State would be difficult, but having to travel to Happy Valley and be part of a whiteout game is going to be difficult. The winner of this early-season matchup will be in a great spot to get to the playoff and have an inside track on a spot in the Big Ten Championship.
For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire!
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