Redrafting The 2020 MLB Draft: Spencer Strider, Garrett Crochet Top The Class

1. Tigers — RHP Spencer Strider

• Actual pick: 1B Spencer Torkelson
• Original Drafting Team (Round.Pick): Braves (4.126)
• Draft Rank: Unranked
• Best BA Rank: 2022 Braves No. 5 prospect

Strider is one of the most impressive draft picks in recent memory. A high-profile prep prospect with big arm strength, he dealt with injury and pitched just 63 innings with Clemson where he fell off the prospect radar a bit—but not for the Braves, who signed him in the fourth round after just 12 innings during the 2020 spring season.

Strider broke the mold for a starting pitching prospect who relied heavily on two dynamic pitches, and he currently leads all 2020 draftees with 7 bWAR. He has a fourth-place finish in the NL Cy Young Award, finished second to teammate Michael Harris for the 2022 Rookie of the Year award and, among pitchers with at least 300 innings in the last three seasons, his 37.1% strikeout rate blows away the competition. Second-place Blake Snell is nearly four points off the mark at 32.4%. Strider’s 29 K-BB% leads second-place Tarik Skubal (23.8 K-BB%) by a wide margin, as well.

Health is the only question that could prevent Strider from being the clear 1-1 choice five years later. He had a Tommy John surgery before the 2019 season in college and an internal brace procedure last April after just two starts that ended his 2024 season and will cut into his 2025 season. 

2. Orioles — LHP Garrett Crochet

• Actual pick: OF Heston Kjerstad
• Original Drafting Team: White Sox (1.11) 
• Draft Rank: No. 15
• Best BA Rank: 2021 No. 74 overall prospect

Crochet belongs in the same tier as Strider and could make a compelling case for a 1-1 pick in hindsight, though having just a single season with 100+ innings in the majors slides him to No. 2. If you fold in 2025 Steamer projections with current bodies of work, Crochet’s total value is the best in the 2020 draft class so far.

Crochet boasted some of the best pure stuff for any pitcher in the class at the time. He had some reliever questions and also dealt with shoulder soreness that delayed his season and, when paired with the covid pandemic, limited him to just one start in his draft year. 

Crochet’s breakout 2024 season led to him being the most prized trade piece this offseason and returned a pair of top-100 prospects to the White Sox when he was shipped to the Red Sox. Only three pitchers (Paul Skenes, Jacob deGrom, Tarik Skubal) are projected for better 2025 seasons than Crochet, and his lethal 97-mph fastball was one of the top pitches in the game in 2024. Only Hunter Greene had a more valuable heater according to Baseball Savant’s pitch values among players with at least 130 innings.

3. Marlins — SS Masyn Winn

• Actual pick: RHP Max Meyer
• Original Drafting Team: Cardinals (2.54)
• Draft Rank: No. 47
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 27 overall prospect

The first line of Winn’s 2020 draft report holds up nicely, even if his rank at the time now looks light: “Pound for pound, Winn could be the most purely talented player in the 2020 class.”

Winn was a standout two-way player with a fastball that got into the mid 90s and legitimate secondaries to complement it. As is the case with almost every two-way amateur player, one side of the ball will eventually become the focus. Winn debuted in the majors as a 21-year-old in 2023, and he established himself in his first full season with the Cardinals in 2024, finishing as a top 12 shortstop in baseball if you like fWAR (3.6) or top 7 if you prefer bWAR (4.9).

Winn was roughly a league-average hitter (103 wRC+) with a .267/.314/.416 line, 15 home runs, 32 doubles and 11 steals, though his defensive value varied from good to elite depending on the metric you use. Regardless of where precisely you settle on his defensive skill, Winn looks like a reliable glove-first shortstop who brings strong bat-to-ball skills to the table and could take steps forward offensively if he can add strength, bat speed or add a few more walks.

4. Royals — C Patrick Bailey

• Original Drafting Team: Giants (1.13)
• Actual pick: LHP Asa Lacy
• Draft Rank: No. 14
• Best BA Rank: 2021 No. 7 Giants prospect

Bailey entered college with a superlative defensive reputation and began hitting for power with NC State, which pushed him up into consensus first-round territory. Five years later, he has a case to be the top position player in the class thanks to premium defense at a premium defensive position.

Bailey won the first of what could be many gold glove awards in 2024 when he led all players in fielding run value (22), led all catchers in framing runs (16), was third in average pop time (1.85 seconds) and second in caught stealing value above average (10). 

While Bailey is now one of the best defensive players in the game, he’ll need to level up on offense if he wants to go from a good player to a great one. Over 218 games, he’s a .234/.292/.348 hitter with a 25% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 79 wRC+. Bailey has underperformed his expected numbers in that time (.282 wOBA vs. .317 xwOBA) for those bullish on his hitting ability moving forward. 

5. Blue Jays — RHP Jared Jones

• Actual pick: SS Austin Martin
• Original Drafting Team: Pirates (2.44)
• Draft Rank: No. 41
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 59 overall prospect

Like Winn, Jones was also a talented two-way player in high school, though his swing-and-miss issues as a hitter and 80-grade arm talent made it easy to see his future was on the mound. Jones went through some ups and downs in four minor league seasons with the Pirates but had a breakout debut season as a 22-year-old in 2024 to give Pittsburgh an enviable 1-2 punch in the rotation with Paul Skenes.

Jones posted a 4.14 ERA over 121.2 innings with a 26.2% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He faded some down the stretch (3.75 first half FIP vs. 4.76 second half FIP) but maintained his velocity over the course of the season. Jones was one of just five starters who averaged at least 97 mph (97.3) and threw at least 100 innings, joining Skenes (98.8), Jose Soriano (98.7), Hunter Greene (97.6) and Garrett Crochet (97.2).

6. Mariners — OF Evan Carter

• Actual pick: RHP Emerson Hancock
• Original Drafting Team: Rangers (2.50)
• Draft Rank: Unranked
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 10 overall prospect

The mystery pick of the 2020 draft came at 50th overall, when the Rangers selected Carter, who didn’t rank on the BA 500 at the time and was seen as a deeper projection pick by most other scouts who knew about him. Turns out the Rangers knew exactly what they were doing. 

Carter flew through the minors and made his big league debut as a 20-year-old, when he put up a blistering .306/.413/.645 line in 23 games with five home runs, then hit .300 in the postseason en route to a World Series championship. A back injury muted his sophomore campaign and limited him to just 45 games, but he has the well-rounded toolset and skillset to be optimistic about moving forward—even if his .339 ISO from 2023 isn’t something he’s going to replicate over a full season.

7. Pirates — SS Jordan Westburg

• Actual pick: SS Nick Gonzales
• Original Drafting Team: Orioles (1.30)
• Draft Rank: No. 33
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 76 overall prospect

Westburg was a high-end athlete with power and speed who was making progress with his contact skills in college but was never able to put everything together in what was looking like a breakout 2020 season with Mississippi State. He showed an ability to make adjustments through four minor league seasons, and replicated that in the majors. 

Westburg upped his barrel rate and added more power in 2024, en route to his first all-star appearance and a .264/.312/.481 line that featured 18 home runs, 26 doubles and a 125 wRC+. He spent most of his time at third base, but logged a decent amount of innings at second and has the ability to play shortstop if necessary as well, making him a fairly well-rounded, versatile righthanded hitter. He might have some untapped stolen base value in the tank, as well.

8. Padres — OF Pete Crow-Armstrong

• Actual pick: OF Robert Hassell
• Original Drafting Team: Mets (1.19)
• Draft Rank: No. 17
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 12 overall prospect

Crow-Armstrong was a highly-touted prep outfielder who began the 2020 draft cycle in the first round and maintained that status. He drew praise for his athleticism, contact skills, speed and defense in center field and wound up being the fourth high school outfielder off the board behind Robert Hassell, Zac Veen and Austin Hendrick. He’d definitely go first of that group today.

Like other position players at the top of this redraft, Crow-Armstrong is a high-impact defender at an up-the middle position. He accumulated 2.3 bWAR in just 123 games despite an 88 OPS+ thanks to his baserunning and outfield defense. Among outfielders with 500 innings, he ranked seventh in outs above average (+11) and 14th in defensive runs saved (+11). He also has top-of-the-scale speed and stole 27 bags in 30 attempts (90%). If he can find a way to get on base more frequently moving forward, it’s easy to see him ranking among the league leaders in steals.

9. Rockies — SS Colt Keith

• Actual pick: OF Zac Veen
• Original Drafting Team: Tigers (5.132)
• Draft Rank: No. 57
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 18 overall prospect

Keith was a toolshed coming out of high school who had three 60s on the card between his speed, power and arm strength. He eventually became a top 20 prospect because his hit/power combination was more impressive than his physical tools, and the Tigers signed him to a six-year, $28.6 million extension before he made the majors. 

His 2024 debut season was solid, but unspectacular. Keith hit .260/.309/.380 with 13 home runs, 15 doubles and a 97 wRC+. He’ll need to figure out big league breaking balls to maximize his offensive upside, but being a near league-average hitter as a 22-year-old is still promising as long as he can keep taking steps forward.

10. Angels — C Austin Wells

• Actual pick: LHP Reid Detmers
• Original Drafting Team: Yankees (1.28)
• Draft Rank: No. 21
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 75 overall prospect

One of the largest gaps between amateur evaluations and eventual professional outcomes seems to be catcher defense. Wells serves as a prime case study in this phenomenon. He was consistently critiqued as a bat-first catcher who might have to move off the position. 

From his 2020 draft report:

“If he could stay behind the plate, he’d be a certain first-round pick, but there are more scouts who are skeptical of Wells’ receiving ability than think he can make it as a catcher. He has trouble blocking and receiving pitches, especially knee to knee on his glove side, and he has a record of elbow issues dating back to high school.”

From his most-recent 2024 scouting report: 

“Defensively, Wells draws raves for his work ethic and dedication to improvement. Scouts noticed better receiving skills and a quicker transfer on his throws, which helps counteract arm strength that is improved but is still below-average and led to him throwing out just 13% of basestealers.”

Wells turned in a 2024 season in which he was in the 96th percentile for fielding value per Baseball Savant and ranked as the third-best pitch framer in the game behind only Patrick Bailey and Cal Raleigh. His arm remains a question, but he still managed to catch an above-average rate of baserunners (25.6%).

Pitch framing specifically is either 1.) hard to evaluate for amateur catchers, 2.) more prone to improvement in pro ball than other skills or 3.) some combination of the two. Want-to and work ethic seems to drive more benefits for defensive skills behind the dish than perhaps any other position.

11. White Sox — 3B Coby Mayo

• Actual pick: LHP Garrett Crochet
• Original Drafting Team: Orioles (4.103)
• Draft Rank: No. 79 
• Best BA Rank: 2024 No. 8 overall prospect

Mayo is less-proven than other players in this redraft, but his combination of huge power and a track record of hitting and making adjustments in the minors creates confidence he can be an impact hitter. He currently ranks as a top 10 prospect in the game on the back of an average hit tool projection and 70-grade game power projection. 

He’s hit 82 home runs in 390 minor league games over the last four seasons and made his major league debut at 22 this season—though he struggled to a .098/.196/.293 line with a 22-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. 

12. Reds — LHP Kyle Harrison

• Actual pick: OF Austin Hendrick
• Original Drafting Team: Giants (3.85)
• Draft Rank: No. 71
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 30 overall prospect

Harrison was a polish-over-stuff low-slot lefthander in the 2020 class who ranked as third-round talent at the time of the draft. The Giants paid him like a late first rounder when they signed him to a $2.5 million deal in the third round. He made his major league debut just three years after signing. 

Harrison is one of just seven starters who logged at least 100 innings over the last three seasons at 22 years or younger. The group also includes Joey Estes, Paul Skenes, Reid Detmers, Hunter Greene, Jared Jones and Taj Bradley. Harrison has been a reliable bulk starter in his major league time (4.47 ERA, 31 starts, 159 innings), but he lacks a true put-away pitch to miss barrels at a consistent rate. If he can find that his extension, low slot and fastball movement could become even more annoying for big league hitters.

13. Giants — 1B/C Tyler Soderstrom

• Actual pick: C Patrick Bailey
• Original Drafting Team: Athletics (1.26)
• Draft Rank: No. 18
• Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 21 overall prospect

Soderstrom was a tremendous offensive performer as a high schooler senior who paired plus raw power with solid hitting chops that made him one of the top catchers in the class and the 18th-ranked player overall. The A’s signed him to an overslot $3.3 million deal at 26th overall, and he maintained his offensive reputation through the minors while it became more clear that catcher wouldn’t be his defensive home. 

Soderstrom’s introduction to the majors was tough. He hit .160/.232/.240 with a 31.2% strikeout rate in 46 games in 2023, but looked much better in a 61-game sample in 2024. He cut his strikeout rate (24.9 K%), started hitting for more power (.080 ISO to .196 ISO) and began demolishing anything hard—Soderstrom had a 200 or better wRC+ against four-seam fastballs, sinkers and cutters in 2024. In September, he looked locked in and hit .279/.340/.512 with a 145 wRC+ and 17% strikeout rate.

14. Rangers — OF Garrett Mitchell

• Actual pick: 2B Justin Foscue
• Original Drafting Team: Brewers (1.20)
• Draft Rank: No. 6
• Best BA Rank: 2021 No. 91 overall prospect

Mitchell was one of the most toolsy players in the 2020 class, but he was a polarizing prospect because of concerns about his Type 1 diabetes and a swing that was geared for ground balls and line drives. He made it to the majors in his third year after the Brewers signed him for $3.24 million as the 20th overall pick, and his 3.6 bWAR accumulated over parts of three seasons is good for fifth-best in the class. He’s largely been the player he was expected to be while on the field—though with a higher than expected 34.2% strikeout rate—and adds value with his speed, defense, and on-base ability through a decent walk rate (10.4 BB%) and a high BABIP (.389).

15. Phillies — RHP Brandon Pfaadt

• Actual pick: RHP Mick Abel
• Original Drafting Team: Diamondbacks (5.149)
• Draft Rank: No. 239
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 26 overall prospect

A full spring would have done wonders for Pfaadt during his draft year. He pitched well as a reliever with Division II Bellarmine (Ky.) for two seasons, then had a tremendous summer in the Cape Cod League before sliding into a full-time starter role during the 2020 spring. In five starts and 26 innings he posted a 1.38 ERA with a 27:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He quickly became the best pitching prospect in Arizona’s system and in 2024 was one of 21 pitchers to clear the 180-inning mark. His peripherals were better than his results. His 3.61 FIP is more than a full run better than his 4.71 ERA, and he also had a solid 18.8 K-BB%. Pfaadt’s 2.3 fWAR Steamer projection for the 2025 season is 10th-best among 2020 draftees and fourth among pitchers.

16. Cubs — RHP Bobby Miller

• Actual pick: SS Ed Howard
• Original Drafting Team: Dodgers (1.29)
• Draft Rank: No. 28
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 20 overall prospect

Coming out of the draft in 2020, Miller was a high-octane pitcher with starter/reliever questions and was about to embark on his first full season in a starting role with Louisville. He managed just four starts before the season was shut down. The Dodgers liked his arm talent and signed him for $2.2 million with the 29th pick in the first round. 

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Miller so far. In 2023, he posted a 3.76 ERA over 22 starts and 124.1 innings with a 23.6% strikeout rate and a fastball that averaged about 99 mph. In 2024, he posted an 8.52 ERA over 13 starts and 56 innings, dealt with injuries—including right shoulder inflammation—and saw his control and stuff back up when he was on the mound. Opposing batters hit him as hard as any pitcher in the majors: his 27.4% HR/FB rate was the worst in baseball among starters with 50 or more innings. 

17. Red Sox — RHP Gavin Stone

• Actual pick: 2B Nick Yorke
• Original Drafting Team: Dodgers (5.159)
• Draft Rank: No. 303
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 56 overall prospect

Stone threw a 13-strikeout no-hitter in his final game for Central Arkansas before signing with the Dodgers for $97,500 in the fifth round. He had a poor debut in 2023 when he got hit around and posted a 9.00 ERA over 31 innings in 2023, but he had a breakout 2024 season in which he was one of only two Dodgers pitchers to throw more than 100 innings and led the team with 140.1. Stone’s fastball velocity was up a tick, he dialed his strikeout rate up from 14.5% to 20.0% and improved his walk rate from 8.6% to 6.4%. Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October and will miss the entirety of the 2025 season, which creates plenty of uncertainty for him moving forward.

18. Diamondbacks — RHP Landon Knack

• Actual pick: RHP Bryce Jarvis
• Original Drafting Team: Dodgers (2.60)
• Draft Rank: No. 113
• Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 7 Dodgers prospect

Knack was one of the top seniors in the 2020 class who amplified his profile by going from a low-90s fastball to a heater that sat 92-95 and touched 98. The Dodgers signed him for $712,500 in the second round, then saw him pitch steadily year-over-year in the minors with strong strikeout-to-walk ratios and a deep mix of strong pitches. He split time at Triple-A Oklahoma City and in the majors in 2024 and was solid at both levels, though he did get hit quite hard in the majors. His 90.6 mph average exit velocity was a bottom-30 mark among 366 pitchers and his 14.3% HR/FB rate was below-average for the league. Knack minimized the damage with a strong 6.3% walk rate and an 86.6 LOB% that was good for second-best in the game among starters with at least 50 innings. 

19. Mets — LHP Reid Detmers

• Actual pick: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
• Original Drafting Team: Angels (1.10)
• Draft Rank: No. 8
• Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 28 overall prospect

Detmers was the first of the Angels’ pick-and-push first rounders, making his major league debut only 13 months after signing for $4.67 million as the 10th overall pick. Despite a fastball that has ticked up a few mph and a strikeout rate that has improved each season in the majors, Detmers has been a mixed bag in his major league career. He started 53 games and threw 277.1 innings with a 4.15 ERA over the 2022-2023 seasons, but in 2024 he got hit around, was demoted to Triple-A midseason and continued to struggle in a five-start return to the majors in September. Since 2020, there are only 21 pitchers 25 or younger with 300-plus innings. Detmers is among that group, though his 4.27 FIP is 18th and his 4.90 ERA is 21st.

20. Brewers — RHP Bryce Elder

• Actual pick: OF Garrett Mitchell
• Original Drafting Team: Braves (1.25)
• Draft Rank: No. 83
• Best BA Rank: 2022 Braves No. 8 prospect

Elder is one of four players from the 2020 draft who’s already appeared in an all-star game—joining Spencer Strider, Garrett Crochet and Jordan Westburg—thanks to a rock solid 2023 season when he posted a 3.81 ERA over 31 starts and 174.2 innings. Elder ranked as a top 100 prospect in the 2020 class thanks to his solid three-pitch mix, command and starter track record with Texas. Elder’s pure stuff doesn’t give him the most exciting projections moving forward, and he’ll be more reliant on weak ground ball contact than other pitchers in this redraft, but the 3.1 bWAR he’s managed over parts of three seasons is good for seventh-best in the class.

21. Cardinals — OF Heston Kjerstad

• Actual pick: 3B Jordan Walker
• Original Drafting Team: Orioles (1.2)
• Draft Rank: No. 13
• Best BA Rank: 2024 No. 40 overall prospect

Kjerstad was a bit of a surprise pick at No. 2 at the time of the draft, but his track record of hitting and hitting for power was as established as any player in the class outside of Spencer Torkelson. His career was delayed because of myocarditis, but Kjerstad still has middle-of-the-order offensive tools, has produced in the majors in the limited time he’s been there (.248/.336/.411, 113 wRC+, 52 games) and could see a more regular big league opportunity in 2025.

22. Nationals — OF Owen Caissie

• Actual pick: RHP Cade Cavalli
• Original Drafting Team: Padres (2.45)
• Draft Rank: No. 180
• Best BA Rank: 2024 No. 52 overall prospect

Caissie reclassified from the 2021 class and was one of the top Canadian prospects and youngest players in the 2020 class. His power potential was his carrying trait, and four years later, he has put up some of the best exit velocities in the minors with a three true outcomes offensive profile. Caissie has yet to make his major league debut, but he’s been an above-average offensive performer in his pro career. In 2024, he slashed .278/.375/.472 with a 12.9% walk rate, 19 home runs and a 121 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in Triple-A.

23. Guardians — RHP Tink Hence

• Actual pick: SS Carson Tucker
• Original Drafting Team: Cardinals (2.63)
• Draft Rank: No. 123
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 26 overall prospect

Hence was 17 on draft day and boasted a projectable frame, fast arm and great feel to spin a breaking ball as an amateur. The Cardinals signed him for $1.15 million, and while he’s struggled with some injuries and durability questions in pro ball, his pure stuff and command aren’t doubted. Hence currently ranks as the No. 3 prospect in the Cardinals system and has a pair of plus pitches between his fastball and changeup. He posted a 2.71 ERA over 20 starts and 79.2 innings in 2024 with Double-A Springfield, with a 34.1% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate.

24. Rays — SS Nick Gonzales

• Actual pick: RHP Nick Nitsko
• Original Drafting Team: Pirates (1.7)
• Draft Rank: No. 5
• Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 49 overall prospect

Gonzales went from unheralded high school recruit to near-consensus top 10 talent in the 2020 class thanks to his terrific track record of hitting with New Mexico State and in the Cape Cod League. He signed for $5.43 million as the seventh overall pick with the Pirates and took a big step forward during his second big league season in 2024, when he cut his strikeout rate from 28.1% to 19.1%, upped his average exit velocity from 85.5 mph to 87.9 mph and went from a 63 wRC+ to a more respectable 94 wRC+.

25. Braves — OF Alec Burleson

• Actual pick: LHP Jared Shuster
• Original Drafting Team: Cardinals (2.70)
• Draft Rank: No. 182
• Best BA Rank: 2023 Cardinals No. 6 prospect

Only Spencer Torkelson has more major league at-bats than Burleson among 2020 draftees. The former ECU two-way player began focusing on hitting as a pro, hit .300 in two minor league seasons and made his major league debut in September, 2022. Burleson doesn’t walk much, but he also makes a ton of contact, finds the barrel regularly and was an above-average hitter for the first time in his career in 2024 when he slashed .269/.314/.420 with 21 home runs and a 106 wRC+. His defensive work and running ability have been limiting factors, but so far he’s delivered on his reputation as a natural hitter.

26. Athletics — LHP Mitchell Parker

• Actual pick: C Tyler Soderstrom
• Original Drafting Team: Nationals (5.153)
• Draft Rank: No. 179
• Best BA Rank: 2023 Nationals No. 14 prospect

Parker was a funky lefthander with strikeout stuff at San Jacinto (Texas) JC. After an inconsistent 2023 minor league season, he spent nearly the entire 2024 season in the majors, where he posted a 4.29 ERA over 29 starts and 151 innings, with a 20.6% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. Parker has above-average extension and above-average riding life on his heater, but his low-80s downer curveball was his most effective pitch. He’s a solid backend starter now who could up that role if he can miss a few more bats.

27. Twins — 1B Spencer Torkelson

• Actual pick: 1B Aaron Sabato
• Original Drafting Team: Tigers (1.1)
• Draft Rank: No. 1
• Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 5 overall prospect

Torkelson ranked as the top player in the 2020 class thanks to a tremendous combination of pure hitting ability and power at Arizona State. He would have broken the program record for career home runs with a full draft season, but instead finished with 54 home runs and a .337/.463/.729 slash line. The Tigers signed him for a then-record $8.4 million bonus as the first pick. He made the majors only two years later.

In parts of three seasons, Torkelson hasn’t lived up to his draft expectations. He seemed primed for a breakout after a strong 2023 sophomore season that featured 31 home runs, but 2024 wasn’t as kind. He didn’t homer until May 12 and was demoted to Triple-A after hitting .201/.266/.330 with a 24.3% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate through the first 54 games.

Torkelson has played more major league games than any player in the 2020 draft class, but altogether he’s been worth just 0.8 fWAR and -0.3 bWAR. He’s flashed offensive performance in spurts and was better down the stretch in 2024 after he was recalled, but the offensive bar to clear as a first baseman is high. From 2022-2024, there are 36 first basemen with at least 1,000 plate appearances—30 of them have been more productive than Torkelson. He’ll enter his age-25 season in 2025. 

28. Yankees — OF Jordan Walker

• Actual pick: C Austin Wells
• Original Drafting Team: Cardinals (1.21)
• Draft Rank: No. 34
• Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 4 overall prospect

Walker was a big power prospect coming out of high school who had some questions about his contact skills and future defensive home. He ranked as the top high school third baseman and a fringe first-round talent. After a pair of loud minor league seasons, Walker ascended to the top tier of prospects in the game and was expected to bring solid-average pure hitting skills with double-plus game power and all-star upside to the Cardinals. That hasn’t come to pass. Walker has played 168 major league games over two seasons and hit .255/.317/.423 with 21 home runs, a 24% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and generally poor defensive play in the outfield corners. He spent the bulk of the 2024 season with Triple-A Memphis but is still young enough with enough power potential to warrant inclusion in this redraft.

29. Dodgers — RHP Cade Smith

• Actual pick: RHP Bobby Miller
• Original Drafting Team: Guardians (UDFA)
• Draft Rank: Unranked
• Best BA Rank: 2024 Guardians No. 26 prospect

If Smith never picked up a baseball again, he’d still be an unquestioned success for the Guardians. Smith pitched as a starter and reliever for Hawaii for three seasons, then went undrafted in the five-round 2020 draft. He signed with the Guardians as a free agent, converted to a full-time bullpen role and ranked as just the team’s No. 25 prospect prior to the 2024 season. That proved far too light. Smith was a key piece of Cleveland’s lights-out bullpen, posting a 1.91 ERA and 1.40 FIP over 75.1 innings while leading all relievers with 2.7 fWAR. His 29.8 K-BB% was the fourth-best mark among relievers with at least 30 innings and his 96 mph four-seam fastball was the most valuable single fastball in the majors, per Baseball Savant.

30. Orioles — RHP Max Meyer

• Actual pick: SS Jordan Westburg
• Original Drafting Team: Marlins (3.3)
• Draft Rank: No. 10
• Best BA Rank: 2021 No. 44 prospect

Meyer ranked as the No. 4 pitcher in the 2024 class, but the Marlins made him the first arm off the board when they selected him third and signed him to a $6.7 million bonus. A two-way player and reliever turned starter with Minnesota, Meyer has pitched as a full-time starter in pro ball and peaked as the No. 44 prospect in the game prior to the 2021 season. He dealt with injuries and missed the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery, but made 26 starts and threw 115 innings in 2024 split between the majors and Triple-A Jacksonville. His slider remains a real weapon that gets plenty of whiffs, but his fastball and changeup were both hit around a bit in the majors in his first year back from surgery. 

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Other Players Considered (in alphabetical order):

• Logan Allen
• Joe Boyle
• Cade Cavali
• Slade Cecconi
• Jeff Criswell
• Dillon Dingler
• Justin Foscue
• JT Ginn
• Emerson Hancock
• Robert Hassell
• Kyle Hurt
• Bryce Jarvis
• Luke Little
• Nick Loftin
• Carmen Mlodzinski
• Connor Phillips
• Thomas Saggese
• Casey Schmitt
• Jared Shuster
• Shay Whitcomb
• Joey Wiemer
• Nick Yorke