Rosenthal: Would the Pirates trade Paul Skenes? A fascinating but unlikely idea for now

Trade Paul Skenes? The Pittsburgh Pirates should build around Paul Skenes. But they punted on an opportunity to do that last offseason, and the chances of owner Bob Nutting splurging this offseason are about as good as his team’s current playoff odds: 0.3 percent.

So, Skenes trade talk is percolating, in the media if not yet in reality. Pirates general manager Ben Cherington, when asked by reporters Thursday if the team is open to trading Skenes, said, “No. It’s not at all part of the conversation.”

Still, the idea is fascinating, and for a team so far away from contention, perfectly rational, considering the risk of injury for any pitcher. But such a deal would require the Pirates to demonstrate three qualities they rarely display — nerve, creativity and savvy.

Among the obstacles to a Skenes trade:

The status of Cherington

If Cherington is not going to be the GM beyond this season, then why the heck would Nutting trust him to move Skenes?

Cherington, following the dismissal of manager Derek Shelton on May 8, might only be safe because teams generally refrain from changing heads of baseball operations in the middle of the season.

Thus, Cherington also will preside over the draft, a daunting thought considering that since taking over in November 2019, he has yet to produce a homegrown star position player. From 2020 to ‘22, the Pirates took second baseman Nick Gonzales, catcher Henry Davis and infielder Termarr Johnson while picking in the top seven. To this point at least, none has made anything close to an impact.

The Pirates are 5-8 under Don Kelly since starting the season 12-26 under Derek Shelton. Far-fetched as it might sound, they could save Cherington by turning around their season. But if Nutting is even thinking about trading Skenes, he would figure to leave the task to the next GM.

Skenes’ extreme value

Think about it: What would even be a fair return for Skenes?

In 2022, outfielder Juan Soto was under club control for three pennant races when he and first baseman Josh Bell brought the Washington Nationals a monstrous return from the San Diego Padres: outfielder James Wood, left-hander MacKenzie Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams; outfielder Robert Hassell III, pitcher Jarlin Susana and first baseman Luke Voit.

Skenes is under club control for five pennant races. To justify the move, the Pirates would need to beat the return for Soto, and not by a little. Even if contenders were willing to empty their farm systems for Skenes, as they almost certainly would be, how many would even have enough talent to make a deal happen?

Skenes’ affordability only adds to his value. His current salary is $875,000. He will be pre-arbitration again next season. And even in arbitration, no pitcher outside of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has earned more than $20 million in a single season. Skenes likely would need to win multiple Cy Young Awards to establish new precedents. His surplus value, then, is likely to remain high throughout the process.

The message a trade would send

The Pirates are steamrolling toward their seventh straight losing season. If they trade Skenes — heck, even if they don’t — what are they looking at? Three more losing seasons? Five? An infinite number?

The right trade — say, one that included top Boston Red Sox prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer, among other goodies — might change the conversation. And if Skenes suffers a serious arm injury while still in Pittsburgh, the first thing people will say is that the Pirates should not have waited to move him.

The problem for the Pirates is that their fans do not trust them to do anything even remotely intelligent, and likely will be infuriated if the team parts with perhaps the best pitcher in franchise history after little more than one season. Then again, fans already are infuriated. Skenes has a 2.44 ERA. And the Pirates are 3-7 in his starts.

This year alone, the club needed to correct two off-field bungles: the removal of the Roberto Clemente sign from the right-field wall and the dumping of ceremonial Bucco Bricks at a recycling facility. And the last time the Pirates traded an elite starting pitcher, under previous GM Neal Huntington, their return for two years of Gerrit Cole was pitchers Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin. Too little, too late.

Skenes is a depreciating asset who will never sign with the Pirates long-term. Fellow right-hander Jared Jones is out until 2026 after undergoing a UCL repair in his elbow. A monster package of major-league-ready hitters for Skenes could align with Jones’ return and the ascent of top pitching prospect Bubba Chandler. But let’s stop making the case for a move beyond Pittsburgh’s capability.

The best bet is that Skenes will still be a Pirate on Aug. 1.

The Cardinals’ hidden concern

The St. Louis Cardinals arguably are the season’s most surprising success story, considering their front office did not try to improve the roster over the winter. But the starting rotation, despite entering Thursday ranked fourth in the majors in innings and 10th in ERA, remains a potential trouble spot.

The Cardinals’ defense is the league’s best, according to Outs Above Average. But the rotation’s 19 percent strikeout rate ranked 25th. The more balls in play the starters allow, the greater the chances hits will fall. And as The Athletic’s Katie Woo recently wrote, the team is making a concentrated effort to induce more swing-and-miss.

Another potential issue with the rotation is its lack of depth. The Cardinals currently have only one player on the injured list — lefty Zack Thompson, who is on the 60-day IL with a torn lat. The Philadelphia Phillies also have only one player on the IL, righty Aaron Nola, who is on the 15-day list with a sprained right ankle.

The difference is, the Phillies go six deep in their rotation when Nola is healthy — seven if you count Mick Abel, who shut out the Pirates for six innings on Sunday in his major-league debut, eight if you count top prospect Andrew Painter, who has a 2.25 ERA in his first three starts at Triple A.

The Cardinals wisely employed a six-man rotation in April to preserve their starters, including righties Miles Mikolas, 36, and Sonny Gray, 35. But outside of lefty Steven Matz, who made two starts in April, their only depth option is righty Michael McGreevy, who pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the New York Mets before returning to Triple A.

Offensively, the Cardinals entered Thursday ranked seventh in runs per game despite being 19th in homers. Rather than chase power, they’re focusing on what they do best, putting balls in play. So far, so good, even with a bench that also is thin — they entered Thursday third in hits and second in doubles.

“I said before the year, I thought they had a good team,” said former Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who is now with the New York Yankees. “I know I’m gone, and a couple of the starting pitchers are gone. But the guys who are still there are really good players.

“Before the year — and I told some of the St. Louis writers this — I thought they would surprise a lot of people. And without talking to those guys, inside the clubhouse, I don’t think they were all thinking rebuild or anything. I think they were thinking they were going to play well, and they have.”

Need a catcher? Call the Yankees

Quality catchers are generally in short supply. But the New York Yankees keep churning ‘em out.

Red Sox rookie Carlos Narváez takes pride in pointing out that eight catchers who opened camp with the Yankees in the spring of 2024 are currently in the majors. And the list does not even include Kyle Higashioka, whom the Yankees included in the Juan Soto deal in December 2023.

The group starts with the Yankees’ current catchers, Austin Wells and rookie J.C. Escarra. It includes two other rookies — Narváez, who went to the Red Sox for righty Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, and Agustín Ramírez, who went to the Miami Marlins as part of the Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade.

Rounding out the list are three veterans: the Cincinnati Reds’ Jose Trevino, who brought back reliever Fernando Cruz in a trade; the Tampa Bay Rays’ Ben Rortvedt, who was part of a three-team deal for Jon Berti; and New York Mets’ Luis Torrens, who was traded for cash.

Tiger of the day

Could be Tarik Skubal or Riley Greene, Javier Báez or Spencer Torkelson, pick a Tiger, any Tiger.

How about Zach McKinstry?

McKinstry, acquired from the Chicago Cubs for righty Carlos Guzman on March 27, 2023, epitomizes the Tigers’ everyman approach.

With several of the team’s outfielders injured, McKinstry, 30, began the season playing mostly right field. He returned to third base after the Tigers demoted Jace Jung. On Tuesday night, he started at third, moved to left after manager A.J. Hinch pinch-hit for Akil Baddoo and caught two fly balls for the final outs of the Tigers’ 5-4 victory over the Cardinals.

Hinch in recent games has batted McKinstry third, giving the Tigers a speedy on-base threat in front of Greene. A left-handed hitter, McKinstry earned Hinch’s trust in part due to his platoon splits — an .875 OPS vs. lefties entering Thursday, a .747 OPS vs. righties.

One more note on the Tigers: They still figure to need a right-handed bat, even after Matt Vierling comes off the injured list. They entered Thursday sixth in OPS against lefties, but teams try to use as many lefties against them as possible, knowing their biggest threats — Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows after he comes off the IL, even McKinstry — bat left-handed.

The Orioles’ mess (continued)

Time to ask: Which Orioles player might bring back the most in a trade? The best guess is probably closer Félix Bautista, who is earning just $1 million this season and under club control for two more.

Center fielder Cedric Mullins and starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano also figure to be in demand, but all would be rentals. And a trade of Sugano, whom the Orioles signed to a one-year, $13 million free-agent contract in December, would not be a good look for an organization trying to establish a presence in Japan.

Before Sugano, the Orioles’ last Japanese free-agent signee to appear in their uniform was reliever Koji Uehara in 2009. The team’s front office wooed Sugano by appealing to his professional instincts, selling the quality of their club and offering ideas for how they could help him improve.

Sugano has done his part, producing a 3.07 ERA in 10 starts (though his expected ERA is 4.36). The Orioles, though, are a 16-32 disaster, and they’ve already fired manager Brandon Hyde. Not exactly a great advertisement for future Japanese players who might consider them. And if they trade Sugano, it might only look worse.

Rangers’ Corbin showing he still has it

Comeback stories are the best baseball stories, and left-hander Patrick Corbin is crafting a pretty good one with the Texas Rangers.

Corbin, 35, completed his six-year, $140 million contract with the Washington Nationals last season. He helped the team win the 2019 World Series, and during his tenure ranked third in the majors in starts. His adjusted ERA, however, was 18 percent below league average.

After becoming a free agent last offseason, Corbin said he drew early interest from the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves, among others. Some of the teams pursuing him wanted him as a reliever. Corbin preferred to start.

He held out until March 18, then joined the Rangers on a one-year, $1.1 million contract, becoming a potential replacement for the injured Cody Bradford and Jon Gray. By April 8, Corbin was in the Rangers’ rotation. And in eight starts, he has relied upon his familiar sinker-slider repertoire to produce a 3.59 ERA, though his expected ERA is nearly a run higher.

“Maybe a change of scenery was for the best,” Corbin said.

Guardians’ outfield: Help wanted

The Cleveland Guardians entered Thursday with the fifth lowest combined OPS from their outfielders, ahead of only the Kansas City Royals, Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox.

Right field, in particular, is a problem, and the Guardians don’t have a Ronald Acuña Jr. coming off the IL the way the Braves do. Still, the return of center fielder Lane Thomas on Thursday night should help. Thomas was out a month with a bone bruise in his right wrist.

David Fry, who is on a rehabilitation assignment after undergoing reconstructive surgery on his right elbow, will provide another right-handed bat in the DH spot once he is ready. And highly regarded outfield prospect Chase DeLauter, recovering from core muscle surgery, could be a factor in the second half.

Around the horn

• The only way the Los Angeles Dodgers can truly ruin baseball is if they figure out how to keep their pitchers healthy. That day does not figure to come anytime soon.

The Dodgers’ 14 players on the IL are the most in the majors. All 14 of those injured players are pitchers. Their combined salaries total more than $105 million when prorating the $52 million signing bonus in Blake Snell’s five-year, $182 million contract.

Even with all that, the Dodgers lead the NL West by two games. Their estimated $393 million payroll is certain to remain a topic of conversation in the next round of collective bargaining talks. But when it comes to competitive balance, their inability to keep pitchers healthy remains something of an equalizer.

• How are those managerial changes in Baltimore and Colorado working out?

The Orioles are 1-4 under Tony Mansolino after going 15-28 under Brandon Hyde. And the Rockies are 1-9 under Warren Schaeffer after going 7-33 under Bud Black.

• The Los Angeles Angels have won seven straight games since I wrote this column critical of them for failing to capitalize on the Shohei Ohtani years.

Clearly — and for all you literalists, I’m typing this with my tongue firmly in cheek — the column snapped the entire organization to attention. As The Athletic’s Jayson Stark might say, you’re welcome!

(Top photo of Paul Skenes: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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