RotoPat’s 2025 NFL head coach rankings: Analysis for all 32 teams

Just because the NFL is in its analytics era doesn’t mean impatient owners or paranoid front offices “trust the process” any more than they used to. Thirteen of the league’s 32 head coaching jobs have come open in the past 15 months. The Raiders and Patriots have both made new hires twice in that timespan. You may have a fancy new approach or all the right connections — Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, or most importantly of all, daddy — but one thing never changes. You better win. If not, no amount of Kubiak or Harbaugh DNA will be enough to save you.

As I say every year: Players, owners, assistants, injuries, and acts of God can matter as much as coaching ability. That’s why, though this is a rankings article, I try not to think of it that way. I view it as more of an almanac, an assessment of where the league’s 32 coaches find themselves right now. How they got here and where they might be going. Last year’s list can be found here. 2023’s is here.

Who is the best coach in the NFL?

1. Andy Reid, Chiefs

Career Record: 273-146-1 (.651)
With The Chiefs Since: 2013
Last Year’s Ranking: 1

Andy Reid pushed it to the limit. How long can an offense survive on sheer scheme and quarterback play alone? Until the first half of the Super Bowl, it turns out. What felt like comeuppance to bored fans nationwide — the Chiefs finally stopped getting away with it — was actually a noble failure. Because even if you have Patrick Mahomes, you are not typically reaching the “big game” if you lack pass-catching depth, a cohesive offensive line, or any rushing attack whatsoever. Mahomes’ execution makes the entire history-making project possible, but it is Reid’s vision he’s implementing. Even if you believe Mahomes would be Brady 2.0 without his Belichick, Reid has something Bill doesn’t: a lengthy track record without his QB. It can be difficult to remember Reid won over 60 percent of his games as NFL head coach before Mahomes became starter. Mahomes has sanded over Reid’s imperfections. That is inarguable. But if finally finding the right quarterback makes you an almost yearly Super Bowl participant, that means your baseline was already one of the highest in league history. Reid will never be perfect. He’s still as close as any coach in football right now.

2. Sean McVay, Rams

Career Record: 80-52 (.606)
With The Rams Since: 2017
Last Year’s Ranking: 2

Sean McVay is an offensive genius … who had never coached without one of the greatest defensive players of all time, Aaron Donald. No matter how good your scheme is, it’s freeing to know you have a defensive tackle who can call game in a Super Bowl. That’s how McVay and Donald lifted the Lombardi in 2022. All of this is the long way of saying we know McVay is a prodigy, but he was facing his toughest challenge yet in 2024. The end result was his fourth division title in eight seasons and eighth overall playoff victory. One reason McVay instantly claimed a seat alongside the other modern coaching greats is that it’s not just about what he does on the sideline. Like Andy Reid or Bill Belichick, McVay’s imprint is all over the front office, as well, and the Rams got the knockout draft they required upon Donald’s retirement. First-rounder Jared Verse was the defensive rookie of the year, while fellow defensive rookies Braden Fiske and Kamren Kinchens made every-week impacts. McVay is probably more limited than he would like to be on offense with 37-year-old Matthew Stafford, but he wisely avoided offseason panic moves under center. McVay has had setbacks and detours during his first eight seasons, but his career destination has maintained a fixed point: Canton, Ohio.

3. John Harbaugh, Ravens

Career Record: 172-104 (.623)
With The Ravens Since: 2008
Last Year’s Ranking: 3

John Harbaugh never had a quarterback. Until everyone else had a quarterback. Harbaugh won a Super Bowl with Joe Flacco then muddled through a five-year interregnum where it was obvious he was still one of the league’s best coaches … he just needed that QB. Enter buzzer-beating 2018 first-rounder Lamar Jackson. The problem, of course, is that 2018 coincided with the beginning of the Patrick Mahomes phenomenon and Josh Allen’s rookie campaign. Joe Burrow was about to arrive. Harbaugh outlasted the AFC’s previous parade of Hall of Fame signal callers only to get matched up with an equally-imposing new guard. The results have been largely the same. Several division titles, multiple No. 1 seeds and … a whole lot of postseason pain. The only way to keep suffering heartbreaking January losses is to make the playoffs every season. Harbaugh does so by remaining at the league’s analytical vanguard but also throwing it back when necessary. He’s proven a coach can master the EPA implications of 2-point conversions while still giving Derrick Henry 325 regular season carries. Harbaugh knows how to win. He doesn’t suddenly forget in the playoffs. There’s just only so much you can do when Brady/Manning/Roethlisberger immediately segues into Mahomes/Allen/Burrow. Harbaugh put it all together in 2012-13. He will do so again before he’s through.

4. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers

Career Record: 70-62 (.530)
With The 49ers Since: 2017
Last Year’s Ranking: 4

Kyle Shanahan lost 10 games for the fourth time in eight years as head coach last season. Yes, that’s easier to do now with the 17-game schedule, but Shanahan’s first three double-digit loss totals came under the old 16-game format, while he got there with a game to spare last year. Bill Belichick also had four 10-loss campaigns … in 29 seasons. Andy Reid has had two in 26. There’s a natural volatility to Shanahan’s game because he is the game. This offense, and by extension team, lives and dies with Shanahan’s play calling, and in years where the 49ers are banged up, there are suddenly too many replacement-level players trying to execute the highest-level scheme. The 49ers stayed healthy in 2023 and made the Super Bowl. They got injury walloped in 2024 and made the draft lottery. It really is that simple. When the coach is this important, there’s an inherent fragility. There’s also an upside you can’t find elsewhere. In an era where legendary quarterbacks are fueling some of the most imposing dynasties in American sports history, Shanahan has made Super Bowls with Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy. He took Matt Ryan from the Hall-of-Very-Good to an outlier MVP campaign in 2016. Shanny is just that good. You will have to forgive him if sometimes his roster isn’t.

5. Nick Sirianni, Eagles

Career Record: 48-20 (.706)
With The Eagles Since: 2021
Last Year’s Ranking: 15

Nick Sirianni was almost let go following the 2023 season. It seems crazy to say now, but it’s not an exaggerated memory. He was only allowed back after firing his offensive and defensive coordinators and, most importantly, “senior defensive assistant” Matt Patricia. As is typical in Philadelphia, GM Howie Roseman was then intimately involved in the search for replacements. Where Roseman ends and Sirianni begins can be difficult to parse. Unlike Major League Baseball, NFL sidelines have yet to be conquered by the front office. The reverse arrangement is more typical, with powerful head coaches like Andy Reid, Sean McVay, and Kyle Shanahan dictating to their general managers. Philadelphia seems to be an exception, but here is another difference from baseball. Whereas an MLB GM can prescribe season-long dictates like ideal batting orders and reliever usage patterns, NFL Sundays have too many variables to be ruled from a luxury box. It is Sirianni’s ballgame after kickoff, and all he’s done is go 4-for-4 on playoff appearances and reach the Super Bowl every other season. He’s deftly navigated coordinator whiplash and major philosophical shifts, including abandoning the pass in 2021 and segueing from a committee to bell-cow backfield approach in 2024. Roseman is buying these groceries. It’s Sirianni who has 60 weekly minutes to whip them into something good. If you think that’s easy, just ask Doug Pederson.

6. Jim Harbaugh, Chargers

Career Record: 55-25-1 (.685)
With The Chargers Since: 2024
Last Year’s Ranking: — —

Last season was Jim Harbaugh’s second worst as an NFL head coach. He went 11-6 with a .647 winning percentage and made the playoffs in the same division as Andy Reid and Sean Payton. The Chargers proved to be a little too ahead of schedule when they got unmasked by Houston in the Wild Card Round, but Harbaugh confirmed his baseline remains as high as it was before he took nine years off to coach the Michigan Wolverines. The question is how to reach his ceiling in an AFC West that has now added yet another Super Bowl-winning head coach in Pete Carroll. The “fundamentals” can only get you so far when literally all of your divisional competition is headed to the Hall of Fame. Harbaugh acknowledged this when he dialed back his beloved running game in the second half of 2024 due to its continued ineffectiveness, but Najee Harris isn’t an inspiring 2025 solution. Along those same lines, will Harbaugh be able to trust forever-a-year-away QB Justin Herbert after he threw more picks against the Texans (four) than he previously had all season (three)? Harbaugh is a master motivator. He is a master teacher. You still need more to beat Patrick Mahomes. Getting the Chargers over the hump is a career capstone challenge worthy of one of the greatest coaches of all time. Just don’t be surprised if not even Jim Harbaugh can manage it.

7. Dan Campbell, Lions

Career Record: 44-35-1 (.556)
With The Lions Since: 2021
Last Year’s Ranking: 7

Rarely has “there’s nowhere to go but up” been taken so literally. Dan Campbell’s Lions have improved from three victories to nine to 12 to 15. It was at the top where they suffered their first real setback. The NFC’s No. 1 seed, a defenseless Lions team got shocked at home by the Commanders in the Divisional Round. It was a devastating defeat at a moment where many were projecting a Super Bowl pinnacle for one of the NFL’s most inspiring recent projects. Campbell had plenty of alibis — most notably the number of key defensive contributors on injured reserve — but there are no moral victories when you go one-and-done at 15-2. That’s especially true since the losses compounded in the offseason. DC Aaron Glenn and OC Ben Johnson have both become head-coaching rivals elsewhere, including in the same division for Johnson. Rousing as Campbell has been in a place where expectations were so low, the freebie years are over in Detroit. Everyone from the fans, to the front office has developed a taste for winning they never thought possible. The NFL’s ultimate tone setter now has to figure out how to make 2025 a season of redemption instead of decline. Campbell has aced test after test. This will be his trickiest one yet.

8. Mike Tomlin, Steelers

Career Record: 183-107-2 (.630)
With The Steelers Since: 2007
Last Year’s Ranking: 5

Making the playoffs would be enough for most coaches. Mike Tomlin is not most coaches. There’s also the reality that in a 14-team field, not all postseason appearances are created equal. With zero January victories in five tries since 2017-18, the Steelers rarely lose enough to miss the tournament but never win once they get there. They have grown comfortable serving as a sacrificial lamb seventh seed in a quarterback-loaded AFC. That’s the primary factor beyond Tomlin’s control. What exactly is he supposed to do when his conference has added Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow while his team is always drafting in the 20s? The answer finally seemed clear in 2024: Literally anything else on offense. Enter the Steelers’ riskiest gambit yet. If he ever actually signs, Aaron Rodgers’ “big personality” shouldn’t be a huge concern for a coach who kept Antonio Brown on a Hall of Fame track. It’s Rodgers’ immobility and increasing inaccuracy that could have Tomlin staring off into the Week 8 distance and wishing he had a Russell Wilson moon ball or Najee Harris two-yard dive. If this front office’s last-ditch quarterback gamble doesn’t pay off, it could be time for a 2012 Andy Reid-esque parting of ways. The Steelers blow it up, and Tomlin puts someone else over the top.

9. Sean McDermott

Career Record: 86-45 (.656)
With The Bills Since: 2017
Last Year’s Ranking: 8

Sean McDermott has become a best of times, worst of times coach. He’s won at least one playoff game five straight seasons — but none of them were the AFC Championship Game. That’s all that’s left to say at this point. McDermott is amongst the best defensive-minded coaches in the game. He’s weathered recent personnel issues simply by coaching ‘em up. The offense is elite even after the 2023 panic firing of OC Ken Dorsey and last year’s weapons shortage in the skill corps. There’s no reason this team can’t beat Patrick Mahomes and finally reach a Super Bowl. So, why doesn’t it? McDermott has never exactly been “Big Game Sean,” but it wasn’t his decision making that cost the Bills in January at Arrowhead. Is it really as simple as the Bills are great but the Chiefs are better? Sometimes that’s your lot in life. Personally, my fourth playoff loss in five years to my only rival that matters might have been when I made a “just for the heck of it” coaching change, though the Bills are staying the course. McDermott has solved all his problems except the biggest. With the deck cleared of smaller issues, maybe he can finally take down “the big one” in 2025. That’s not sophisticated analysis, but again … what more can you say?

10. Matt LaFleur, Packers

Career Record: 67-33 (.670)
With The Packers Since: 2019
Last Year’s Ranking: 6

With 20 wins in two years since Aaron Rodgers went elsewhere, Matt LaFleur would appear to have bridged the quarterback gap. That’s at least how it looks on the outside. Internally, it sometimes seems like LaFleur isn’t so sure. Jordan Love has not lacked for star-quality plays in his two seasons on the job, but LaFleur treats him like your garden variety Sam Darnold. The Packers’ 526 rushes were sixth most in 2024, while their -7 pass rate over expected was bottom five. LaFleur favored offensive balance even with Rodgers in tow, though he took it to new extremes in 2024. We suppose you can’t really argue with the results — 11 wins and a playoff appearance for the fifth time in six years as head coach — but LaFleur’s quarterback hand-holding faltered in the Packers’ biggest moments. They went 0-5 against the Eagles, Vikings, and Lions during the regular season before getting so outplayed by Philly in the playoffs LaFleur spent his spring trying to get the “tush push” banned. Love is a flawed player, but ever-conservative LaFleur is probably going to have to cut him loose if he wants to ascend another level in a loaded division and improving conference. LaFleur has accomplished the second hardest thing a head coach can do: establish a winning benchmark. Now it’s time for the hardest: reach his ceiling.

11. Kevin O’Connell, Vikings

Career Record: 34-17 (.677)
With The Vikings Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 12

Kevin O’Connell has been a victim of his own success. His 2022 team so overachieved it went 13-4 with a negative point differential. The bottom finally fell out in the Wild Card Round. The 2024 unit went 14-3 despite its first-round quarterback missing the entire season, necessitating 17 games of volatile vet Sam Darnold. Darnold “stopped getting away with it” in the Vikes’ two biggest games before very much getting away with it with a massive free agent deal, leaving KOC back at square one at QB. Not that he’s bothered by it. Whether it is Darnold, declining veteran Kirk Cousins, or 2023 stopgaps Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens, O’Connell has Proven (capital P) he can coax production out of any QB. That’s Step 1 for any offensive play-calling head coach. Step 2 is knowing who to trust on the other side of the ball. After a disastrous one-year dalliance with Ed Donatell in 2022, O’Connell has empowered Brian Flores to call one of the league’s most aggressive, high-flying defenses. Step 3 is simply putting it all together. O’Connell has already come breathtakingly close his first three years on the job despite less-than-ideal circumstances under center. It seems like only a matter of time until one of his overachievements becomes a sustained breakthrough.

12. Sean Payton, Broncos

Career Record: 170-105 (.618)
With The Broncos Since:
Last Year’s Ranking: 13

Sometimes it takes a shocking personal setback to get one’s life in order. For Sean Payton, it was losing 70-20 to the Dolphins in Week 3 of 2023. Since that dark day, Payton is 18-13 (.581) with a playoff appearance and new franchise quarterback. He has re-established his Saints baseline remarkably quickly in Denver, and in Patrick Mahomes’ division no less. Now the question becomes — how to reach the ceiling? If 70-20 reminded Payton he can’t be losing by 50 to Tua Tagovailoa, he’s yet to solve his more elite competition. If you throw out Denver’s 38-0 Week 18 exhibition win over the Chiefs, the Broncos went 1-5 against playoff teams last season. They did display admirable resilience. Even with rookie Bo Nix under center, they never lost more than two games in a row. They were seventh in scoring and third in scoring defense. Payton has surprisingly failed to reignite his vaunted rushing attack, but that seems more like a personnel issue than coaching. 61 years old with fabulous wealth and a Super Bowl ring, there was no guarantee Payton would feel like he had anything left to prove. You can thank Mike McDaniel for reminding him that’s never the case in the National Football League.

13. Dan Quinn, Commanders

Career Record: 55-47 (.539)
With The Commanders Since: 2024
Last Year’s Ranking: — —

Sometimes the best coaching hire is the one literally everyone tells you not to make. The “internet,” of which I am a card-carrying member, thought Dan Quinn was the wrong retread in the wrong place at the wrong time for a Commanders franchise that needed bold action like few in recent memory. This is where the “football world” went to work. The posters didn’t like Quinn for the way he fizzled out in Atlanta after Kyle Shanahan bolted, but the league loved the way his Cowboys defenders responded to his player-friendly style. It helped that Quinn proved in Big D he could still coordinate a defense, and wasn’t just a product of the Legion of Boom’s multiple Hall of Famers. So, the Commanders made the unpopular hire and Quinn not only thrived, he changed. Quinn is a defensive-minded head coach who realized he couldn’t make a Cinderella playoff run by establishing the run and battling for field position. So, he trusted his rookie quarterback and stopped punting. Heady new tricks for an old dog. Maybe last season was a lightning-in-a-bottle moment that’s not to be repeated, but Quinn serves as a humbling reminder that we don’t know everything on this side of the keyboard.

14. Zac Taylor, Bengals

Career Record: 46-52-1 (.470)
With The Bengals Since: 2019
Last Year’s Ranking: 9

“You are what your record says you are” has always been too blunt of an instrument, but you would generally like to have won more than 47 percent of your games through six seasons. You would hope to have more than two playoff appearances. You would love to be better than 18-16 over the past two years when you have one of the best quarterbacks on planet Earth in Joe Burrow. Zac Taylor does not lack for explanations — typically: Burrow wasn’t playing — but even if the Bengals’ off campaigns aren’t necessarily his fault, to what is his credit? He does seem like a strong leader, navigating a maze of massive egos and trade requests while still cultivating All-Pro campaigns from players like Ja’Marr Chase and Trey Hendrickson. He’s a solid offensive coordinator. He even managed to go 4-4 without Burrow in 2023. There’s just a pervasive sense of “is this the guy?” You wouldn’t question Andy Reid after two 9-8 seasons, or even Kyle Shanahan. To be fair, there aren’t even that many questions about Taylor. It just seems like we should have more answers by now.

15. Todd Bowles, Bucs

Career Record: 53-65 (.449)
With The Bucs Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 18

Todd Bowles has the extremely weird distinction of overseeing the only losing season of Tom Brady’s career. The Bucs, of course, won the division anyways that year. That was an anomaly but not as strange as what came next: Two more division titles without the greatest player of all time, accomplishments that came not on the back not of Bowles’ defense, but the arm of Baker Mayfield. These past two seasons have represented one of the more surprising coaching transformations in recent memory, with Bowles accepting this is not a defense-first club and leaning into the pass even if it means accepting a league-leading number of turnovers from Bakes. This good deed has not gone unpunished, as each of Bowles’ past two offensive coordinators have departed for head-coaching gigs, but he and Mayfield are now combining for one of the NFL’s most surprisingly productive coach/quarterback combos. Not that it is all offense. Bowles is still one of the league’s most reliable defensive teachers and tacticians. He is never going to let his side of the ball collapse. That’s why, coupled with Mayfield, he has found success after being set up to fail following Brady’s retirement. Like Mayfield, Bowles might never be the reason a team wins a Super Bowl. You can still absolutely win one with him on the sideline.

16. Kevin Stefanski, Browns

Career Record: 40-44 (.476)
With The Browns Since: 2020
Last Year’s Ranking: 10

It’s tempting to grade the Browns’ job on a curve. “Adversity” doesn’t begin to describe the typical Cleveland working conditions. But at least on paper this is one of 32 NFL jobs just like any other, and Stefanski’s five seasons have produced more losses than wins and only one postseason victory across two appearances. He’s had two winning campaigns and one No. 2 overall pick. That, of course, is nowhere close to the full story, but Stefanski can’t be rocketed up the ranks just because he has a heavy-handed front office and Browns football seems cursed by ancient Aztec gods. All that being said, Stefanski clearly knows what he’s doing on his side of the ball. He was the first coach to revive Baker Mayfield’s fortunes and likely the last to do so for Joe Flacco. He made Jacoby Brissett watchable in 2022. That he could not do the same for Deshaun Watson says more about the quarterback than coach. It’s easy to wonder where Stefanski might find himself right now had the Browns’ brain trust not made its Faustian Watson bargain, but they did, and not even Stefanski’s play-calling savvy could save the doomed project. Now he has to hope his signal caller powers don’t fail him with Kenny Pickett or potentially Kirk Cousins as the Browns find themselves where they always are, awaiting their next savior under center.

17. DeMeco Ryans, Texans

Career Record: 20-14 (.588)
With The Texans Since: 2023
Last Year’s Ranking: 17

2024 was … a lot for DeMeco Ryans. There was regression, confusion, eye-wateringly bad offense and … another division title and playoff victory. So is life in the NFL, where even the good years can feel bad. It was still a good outcome for Ryans. It’s rare that a humbling second season ends in the Divisional Round instead of the hot seat. Charmed though that may be, it can’t happen again. Ryans has proceeded as such, firing former head-coaching candidate OC Bobby Slowik. Maybe C.J. Stroud’s sophomore struggles had nothing to do with his offensive coordinator. Ryans understood head coaches don’t always have the luxury of finding out. If the offense went wrong, the defense was still strong. No one is questioning Ryans’ leadership. Even if Ryans is controlling what he can, he still finds himself in the same position as nearly all his head-coaching brethren: at the mercy of his quarterback. This time, Ryans got to choose whom he wanted to “fix” his signal caller. Next time, ownership might decide it’s the head coach who is the problem, not the play-caller. That’s not necessarily fair, but again … it sure is life in the NFL. Ryans is handling his business. Now he needs to hope his subordinates can handle theirs.

18. Mike McDaniel, Dolphins

Career Record: 28-23 (.549)
With The Dolphins Since:
Last Year’s Ranking: 11

Mike McDaniel is really sharp — except for all those times he’s not? If only it were that simple. McDaniel has been accused of being a one-note coach during his three years in Miami, but what if there are only so many notes you can play with Tua Tagovailoa under center? Tagovailoa has gone from merely “injury prone” to the entire scheme having to revolve around him avoiding hits. That can make McDaniel’s team a bit of a tough watch … that probably still would have gone 3-for-3 on playoff appearances had Tagovailoa not missed six games last season. McDaniel’s record improves from 28-23 (.549) to 25-16 (.610) if you isolate it to Tua’s starts. There has been little hint of a ceiling, though McDaniel seems to wring every last drop out of his quarterback’s floor. All the stuff about adjusting or not adjusting is probably overly reductive with regards to a coach who can make players like Jonnu Smith major contributors whenever he feels like it. It’s possible McDaniel will end up the latest in a long line of offensive coordinators stuck in a head coach’s headset. It’s still difficult to argue he hasn’t maximized a flawed quarterback on a flawed roster with a flawed brain trust.

19. Mike Macdonald, Seahawks

Career Record: 10-7 (.588)
With The Seahawks Since: 2024
Last Year’s Ranking: — —

In the belly of the McVay and Shanahan beast, the Seahawks did something radical: They hired from a different coaching tree. Whereas everyone else is simply joining the McVay/Shanny revolution, Seattle looked to the Brothers Harbaugh, and went defensive-minded instead of offense. If the end result was “just” one more victory than the year prior, it was still the Seahawks’ first 10-win campaign since the schedule switched to 17 games. Mike Macdonald got better as the year went on, rallying from a 4-5 start to a 6-2 post-bye finish. There were some gifts (the Rams didn’t try in Week 18) and eyesores (don’t google “week 17 thursday night football 2024 season”) in there, but young coaches take all the help they can get. Macdonald doesn’t seem like he’s going to need much. He had his defense looking strong for the stretch run. The offense was admittedly a different story, causing the young boss to take decisive action. Pass-first OC Ryan Grubb is out, and a Shanahan disciple by way of Gary Kubiak is in. “Klint” Kubiak will undoubtedly focus more on the run. Macdonald had success on his side of the ball and now has a better vision of what he wants elsewhere. He continues to look like one of 2024’s most promising hires.

20. Shane Steichen, Colts

Career Record: 17-17 (.500)
With The Colts Since: 2023
Last Year’s Ranking: 19

You can’t be that bad of a coach when you have as many wins as losses through two years on the job with Gardner Minshew, Anthony Richardson, and Joe Flacco at QB. On the other hand, they don’t hang banners just because you prevented the bottom from falling out (ok, Indy might do that). Nevertheless, with Daniel Jones being the latest proposed quarterback solution from an increasingly-embattled Colts front office, Shane Steichen appears poised to remain stuck in the murky middle for 2025. Steichen inarguably made progress last season, better deploying Richardson’s dual-threat skill-set and eking out a 6-5 record with the second-year pro under center despite disastrous passing. The defense remained subpar, though that’s not Steichen’s forte, and GM Chris Ballard has been struggling to supply difference-making talent for years now. Steichen is simply caught between a desperate GM and erratic owner. Those circumstances almost always result in a coaching pink slip even if most impartial observers can agree he deserves better. Deserve, of course, rarely has anything to do with it in the NFL.

21. Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals

Career Record: 12-22 (.353)
With The Cardinals Since: 2023
Last Year’s Ranking: 23

First-time head coaches are rarely set up for success. That’s how you get results like Jonathan Gannon showing four-win improvement in 2024 and still finishing below .500. Defensive-minded Gannon seemed to do what he could in year two. The Cardinals went from 31st in points against to 15th. The offense went from 24th in scoring to 12th. First-rounder Marvin Harrison Jr. did struggle, while quarterback Kyler Murray remained stuck in neutral. Murray’s statistical output remained eerily similar to his rookie year marks from 2019. If Murray is a finished, frustrating product, Gannon needs to up his defensive game from strong to elite. He was elite with Howie Roseman’s players in Philadelphia. We still don’t know what GM Monti Ossenfort is capable of in Arizona. Gannon has had a solid two years in the desert. If he improves again in 2025, he’ll be getting a second contract out of a roster that could have easily gotten him fired.

22. Raheem Morris, Falcons

Career Record: 29-47 (.382)
With The Falcons Since: 2024
Last Year’s Ranking: — —

If coaching is one of the most important macro factors for any organization, it’s even more so around the edges. Once the games start, it’s the players who play. A few rare head coaches manage to impose their will on almost every snap, but many have to settle for things like managing the clock correctly. It could be the difference between making the playoffs or not. Raheem Morris didn’t, and the Falcons didn’t. Morris’ Week 17 gaffe was far from the only thing to go wrong for Atlanta last season, but it was a discouraging miscue from a long-ago wiz kid who waited 14 years to get another head-coaching opportunity. Hopefully it’s not emblematic of more missed details to come. Morris’ players love him, which is far from a given even in a softer, gentler era of football. He is … fine on defense. Solid. Not amazing. In eight years as a head coach or defensive boss, Morris has never once had a defense finish in the top half of the league in yards allowed. It would seem to mean he really needs to lead, and yes, he really needs to know when to call timeout. If he can’t pair that micro with the macro, it won’t be long before he’s back coordinating.

23. Dave Canales, Panthers

Career Record: 5-12 (.294)
With The Panthers Since: 2024
Last Year’s Ranking: — —

After losing by a combined score of 73-13 in Weeks 1 and 2, Dave Canales benched Bryce Young and briefly made Andy Dalton watchable. It was an outcome many saw coming, but what happened next was even more predictable. Dalton failed to become “the next Joe Flacco” (a surprisingly resurgent veteran) then got hurt. Now here comes the surprise. With no one else to turn to, Canales subbed back in a previously-overmatched Young and watched him … play fine. Just fine, but actually watchable. It was a major improvement. It was also the only truly notable takeaway from a season where the Panthers’ wins were thoroughly unimpressive — Vegas, Derek Carr, Daniels Jones, Arizona and Week 18 Atlanta — while some of their losses were their most intriguing performances. Canales’ club went toe to toe with Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia. On the whole, Canales’ rookie year was all over the map, but the point is, it wasn’t all bad. Especially when it comes to Young, that was not an outcome that could be taken for granted. 2025 will be more telling. Will Young take another step forward or hit a mediocre plateau? Will Baker Mayfield continue to exceed expectations in Tampa and make the 2023 coordinating performance that got Canales the Carolina job look less impressive in retrospect? Valid questions, but hardly the most damning ones you could be facing after Year 1.

24. Brian Callahan, Titans

Career Record: 3-14 (.176)
With The Titans Since:
Last Year’s Ranking: — —

The only real takeaway from Brian Callahan’s first year on the job: He’s not a miracle worker. If not surprising, it’s also a more useful data point than you might think. Several Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan pupils have proven to be miracle workers in Year 1. Callahan was a knock-off McVay hire via the Zac Taylor coaching tree. So, there’s at least some cause for concern after a three-win rookie campaign even if Mason Rudolph and Will Levis were the quarterbacks. If you judge Callahan against wider history, however, it’s nothing to lose sleep over. In fact, you see a reason for optimism in his own Taylor coaching tree: His former boss making the Super Bowl in year three after Joe Burrow stayed healthy. Callahan appears poised to get Cam Ward with the first pick in the NFL draft. Callahan failed his first test of turning water into wine. Fair enough. The second will be more telling. If Ward doesn’t hit the ground running in 2025, Callahan’s coaching future will be staked entirely on 2026.

25. Brian Daboll, Giants

Career Record: 18-32-1 (.363)
With The Giants Since: 2022
Last Year’s Ranking: 20

It’s not that abnormal for a head coach to post three, six and nine victories their first three seasons on the job. You win three the first year, six the second, and nine the third. It’s far less common to do the inverse. It’s even more rare to keep your job afterward. Brian Daboll has managed both Weird Tricks. Perhaps most unusual of all is when a head coach keeping their job is a desperation move by the organization, but that’s how bad things have gotten in East Rutherford. The Giants crave stability and are willing to risk further collapse for the remote chance Daboll becomes their next Tom Coughlin. Because, let’s be real: next Parcells or Belichick isn’t within the range of possibilities. The G-Men just want the valleys to be accompanied by the occasional peak at this point. Aside from his fluke 2022 playoff qualification with a negative point differential, there isn’t much in Daboll’s résumé to suggest even a Coughlin-ian outcome. Despite being a Belichick/Saban disciple, firings have been a far more common theme for Daboll’s teams than winning seasons. Most of those came as an assistant. Those are the ranks to which he will be returning if the Giants’ 2025 is anything other than one of the most surprising campaigns of the year.

New Hires (In Alphabetical Order)

Pete Carroll, Raiders

Career Record: 170-120-1 (.586)

I am confident in saying Pete Carroll was an underrated coach by the end of his time in Seattle. I will also allow I am not certain I see the upside in running back a pair of 9-8 Geno Smith campaigns in Las Vegas. Carroll comes with one of the highest floors in football history. He’s had four losing efforts in 18 NFL seasons. He’s won fewer than seven games one time, his first year on the job in New England in 1994. Whatever constitutes a “winner,” Carroll has it. But so do Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh, and Sean Payton, and yeah, Carroll’s grand 2025 plan is to bring a Geno Smith to a Patrick Mahomes fight. Any plan could work when your baseline is 8-9 victories. At 9-8, you are three or four lucky bounces in one-score games away from being 12-5 or 13-4. It’s not impossible. Just know that is what we are working with here. The Raiders are no longer going to embarrass themselves. They are also going to have to be lucky to transcend 8-10 victories in this lion’s den division with 34-year-old Smith.

Liam Coen, Jaguars

Career Record: — —

Do I love that Liam Coen was practically hanging out the bathroom window hiding from the Bucs as he accepted the Jags job? Not really. Was he the best hire after they missed out on Ben Johnson? Probably. Coen’s hiring featured an unusual amount of intrigue for a 39-year-old with one year of NFL play-calling experience — google “trent baalke fired jags” — but I suppose the Jags’ dramatic problem called for a dramatic solution. Only one thing matters for this organization right now: fixing Trevor Lawrence. Coen didn’t exactly fix Baker Mayfield in Tampa — that would be Dave Canales, or the player himself — though he further enhanced what was already one of the league’s more surprising quarterback renaissances. Jacksonville is a situation that called for the head coach to essentially operate as the QBs coach, and that’s what Coen will be. We have no idea if it will work because both coach and quarterback enter 2025 with an uncomfortable amount of variance. One or both could be just not good. The same is true for the opposite. Coen took a winding, wincing path to get here. Lawrence, 25, has already experienced the highest highs and lowest lows. Whatever they produce together is going to be spectacular. Now it’s time to find out if that means success or failure.

Aaron Glenn, Jets

Career Record: — —

In a head-coaching era where teams tend to hire the first Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan acolyte they can find, 52-year-old Glenn has a more traditional background. Quietly ushered into the coaching ranks by Mike Pettine in Cleveland in 2014, he’s been a methodical riser rather than McVay/Shanny rocket shipper. He worked under Sean Payton for five seasons in New Orleans before spending four more years alongside Dan Campbell in Detroit. You can learn a lot collaborating with those kinds of coaches for the better part of a decade. It’s also experience Glenn can add to a lengthy 14-year playing career, during which he suited up for Payton and Bill Parcells, amongst others. At this point, Glenn has seen it all. That includes knowing what not to do, which can be half the battle for the star-crossed Jets. Known for efficient, play-making defenses in Detroit, Glenn has excellent New York building blocks in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. Step one for Gang Green is simply digging out from underneath the mountain of embarrassments that piled up during the Aaron Rodgers “era.” At least on paper, Glenn appears well positioned to do so.

Ben Johnson, Bears

Career Record: — —

Ben Johnson bet on himself. The NFL head coaching carousel isn’t the kind of job hunt where people tend to be choosy. If you get 2-3 offers that year, sure, but the focus is always that year. Because you never know what might happen next. This season’s hot candidate could be next season’s play-calling scapegoat. Like Josh McDaniels before him, Johnson bucked that conventional wisdom and indeed emerged stronger. He got the job he wanted. It is fair to ask, however: Why didn’t he want the Commanders’ gig in 2024? The one Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury of all people turned into a first-year NFC Championship Game appearance? Johnson knows what he wants, but what if what he wants is wrong? Johnson’s Commanders drama — and we do mean drama — will end up little more than an interesting footnote if he hits the ground running in Chicago. If he doesn’t … McDaniels will be the first comparison that comes to mind. A coordinator who overestimated how big of a role he played in his former coach and quarterback’s success. That’s a lot of negative words. The positives are Johnson helped turn Jared Freaking Goff into a perfect coaching marionette. Not even Sean McVay had as much success with the much-maligned former No. 1 overall pick. Johnson has juice. Here’s hoping he chose the right spot to apply it.

Kellen Moore, Saints

Career Record: — —

Sometimes you let an idea kick around for so long you can no longer tell if it’s good or not. “Kellen Moore, head coach” could be one such instance for the NFL. Relieved of play-calling duties two of the past three years, Moore never felt like the problem in either Dallas or Los Angeles, but he certainly wasn’t the solution. Enter the Eagles’ rising tide, which tends to lift all coaching boats. Moore took the Philly OC gig and has a ring to show for it. There is no way Moore will be bad for the Saints’ offense. But great? He’s never had the air of a McVay or Shanahan. All of that is merely Moore’s coordinating. Everything else? It’s hard to say. Moore is only 36 years old and has just seven total seasons of coaching experience. He wasn’t respected enough to prevent his scapegoating for Dallas’ 2022-23 playoff failures. From afar, Moore seems better suited to play-calling than team-building, though we are admittedly guessing there. His résumé simply isn’t long or varied enough to say otherwise. The league got it in its head several years ago that Moore was a strong head-coaching candidate, and he’s neither proven nor disproven the thesis. Someone finally decided to stress test it. Your guess is as good as New Orleans’ as to whether or not it works out.

Brian Schottenheimer, Cowboys

Career Record: — —

You know what’s probably not a great sign? When your own hiring is a red flag. Although few could argue Brian Schottenheimer hasn’t paid his dues, he has to know there’s only one reason he got this gig: So owner Jerry Jones can keep running the show. Ol’ Jer’ rose to the top with one of the most powerful head coaches in the history of the league, Jimmy Johnson. After slowly moving away from that model, he got away from it all together following Bill Parcells’ third retirement. Ever since it’s been all about who can be the most pliant stooge. After lasting a surprisingly long time in the role, Mike McCarthy was evidently no longer submissive enough for Jones. Enter Schottenheimer, a 24-year NFL assistant who was off the head-coaching radar for 31-of-32 teams. He owes it all to Jones. Head coaches are never exactly swimming in leverage over the owner, but Schottenheimer has precisely none. That’s a tough way to run a ballclub. None of this is to mention that, even in a league where family names have long been as important as play-calling acumen, there is no chance Schottenheimer could have landed this opportunity with a different surname. Maybe Schottenheimer’s decades of experience will end up a secret weapon nobody saw coming. But therein lies the problem: If there’s a reason Schottenheimer actually deserved this job, no one can see it.

Mike Vrabel, Patriots

Career Record: 54-45 (.545)

For a team that supposedly wanted to move on from Bill Belichick, the Patriots have a funny way of showing it. After an ill-fated one-and-done 2024 campaign with one of BB’s former proteges, Jerod Mayo, they have turned to a more experienced option in Mike Vrabel. Although Vrabel never coached for Belichick, he played for him for eight seasons, and knew how to drive him crazy as a head-coaching rival. Vrabel’s penalty rules bending in the 2019 Wild Card Round turned out to be the end of the Brady/Belichick era in Boston. So Vrabel arrives home as a favored son, though it’s unclear whose hits he is supposed to play. Will it be the throwback run and play-action based offenses he featured in Nashville? Or the more elaborate attacks of fellow home-again coach Josh McDaniels? Vrabel/McDaniels is an immediate potential power struggle for a head coach who suffered through several in Tennessee. Known as an AFC South overachiever until his rosters grew a little too lean, Vrabel is good at making the whole exceed the sum of its parts. He just needs to find the right balance with McDaniels, and make sure he’s not chasing Belichick’s ghost. Despite those potential pitfalls, Vrabel is a strong, sensible hire for an organization that has not handled its post-Brady years gracefully.

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