The Seattle Mariners had an offensive identity when their lineup was rolling early.
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Drive up pitch counts. Take walks. Steal bases. Put pressure on pitchers. And hit home runs.
Even when the club started the season 3-7, you could see there was potential for the lineup to do more than it a did a season ago. They just needed to start getting hits to fall with runners in scoring position. The opportunities were there.
Over the past month, the Mariners have lost that identity, particularly the getting on base part.
Through April, Seattle led baseball in walk rate. It was third in the league in on-base percentage, home runs and stolen bases.
Since the beginning of May, the Mariners are 21st in walk rate, 28th in on-base percentage, 14th in home runs and 20th in stolen bases. And many of those numbers would look quite a bit worse if it wasn’t for Cal Raleigh carrying the offense while on a historic pace for MLB catchers.
The impact of the M’s loss of offensive identity has really showed up in the standings and the run column. They were 18-12 and eighth in the league in runs scored at the start of May. They’re 14-17 since, a number that would likely be worse if the starting pitching hadn’t started to improve, and 21st in runs scored.
The recent struggles were on full display during the series with Baltimore as they scored a total of six runs and walked just five times in three games.
It’s not just one or two players contributing to the struggles. Outside of Raleigh and J.P. Crawford, the lineup hasn’t gotten much consistent production from top to bottom.
It starts at the top with Julio Rodríguez, Jorge Polanco and Randy Arozarena.
Rodríguez hasn’t been bad at all since the start of May. In fact, he’s been better, posting a.289 batting average, .783 OPS and 129 wRC+ (100 is leave average) over the stretch. However, he’s lost the patience shown early on. Through April he sported a 10.8% walk rate, a career-best pace 4.6% over his previous season high. The walk rate is down to just 3.9% since the start of May.
It’s great that Rodríguez is hitting the ball with more success, but it’s hard not to notice moments like what transpired Thursday. Between his first and third at-bats, Rodríguez had a stretch where he swung at nine straight pitches from Orioles starter Zach Eflin. He struck out twice as a result. And after finally taking an 0-2 pitch for a ball in his third at-bat, he rolled over for a groundout on a breaking ball off the plate low and away on the next pitch.
For Polanco, it’s been a rough tumble since being one of the hottest hitters on the planet in April. Polanco’s .384 average and .418 on-base percentage through the first month were pretty unsustainable numbers. But the .136/.195/.198 slash line and 16 wRC+ he’s produced since then has hurt the lineup, especially since he’s continued to hit second. Polanco’s double on Thursday was his first extra-base hit since May 12.
Arozarena has also had a tough past month. His walk rate has dropped from 16% through April to 6.6% since, and he has the lowest contact rate (75.9%) on pitches inside the zone of any Mariners hitter since the start of May.
However, all the blame can’t got on those three. The bottom of the lineup, which was key early on, has stopped producing as well.
Ben Williamson had his moments early, but he’s been an offensive liability with a .265 on-base percentage and three extra-base hits in 102 plate appearances since May 1.
The addition of Leody Taveras hasn’t paid off much outside of a couple clutch hits and good defensive plays, either. He’s hitting just .188 with a .213 on-base percentage in 26 games with the team.
And Dylan Moore hasn’t been able to keep up the career-best pace he was on in April. He was hitting .286 with a .346 on-base percentage through the first month, but those numbers are down to .230 and .284 since May 1. The .230 batting average is closer to what Moore has produced throughout his career, but he’s always been better at getting on base.
The offensive isn’t solely to blame for the club’s struggles since early May, either. The bullpen has had blowups that have cost the M’s games. A little more offensive production, though, would make those hiccups more manageable.
With all that said, the Mariners have shown they’re capable of producing a winning formula on offense. They just need to find it again.
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