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The 2025 SEC season seems destined to be the season of Texas.
The Longhorns swept the Jim Schlossnagle return series over Texas A&M and have pulled miles ahead of the SEC field. After the Longhorns, it’s been a stew of inconsistency.
The gap between No. 2 Arkansas or LSU and No. 10 Auburn or Oklahoma is just 3 games. In SEC parlance, that’s one weekend series. So with that constant up and down in mind, here’s a rundown on the SEC’s squads with just 3 weeks left in the regular season.
The No-Hopers
These teams are floundering entering the final month of the regular season:
16. Missouri (13-31, 0-21)
It’s hard to say what’s more astonishing: A 13.05 ERA in SEC play or a .220 batting average and 17 homers in those games. Add those up and that’s the path to 0-21.
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15. South Carolina (26-20, 5-16)
The loss of standout slugger Ethan Petry for the season just underlines a brutal year for the Gamecocks. Paul Mainieri didn’t come back to coaching for seasons like this. The 7.98 ERA in league play has played a major role in dooming the Gamecocks.
14. Mississippi State (26-19, 7-14)
The firing of Chris Lemonis demonstrates as clearly as anything the “What have you done for me lately?” nature of college baseball. The Bulldogs clearly aren’t happy with where things stand. Defense was a hidden key to this disappointing season. The Bulldogs are tied for last in the league in errors in conference play and opposing base stealers have succeeded on 84% of their attempts.
13. Florida (30-16, 8-13)
The Gators won their series with Arkansas, so is it worth buying it? Probably still not. The series at South Carolina should keep the ball rolling, but the Gators badly need a sweep. It’s followed with a trip to Texas and then a season-ending series with Alabama. The Gators still have plenty of work to do, although coming of a 1-11 start, they have at least made it interesting.
12. Texas A&M (25-19, 8-13)
The Aggies had impressive momentum, but the series with Texas was a shot of reality. This weekend’s set with LSU could be huge. If A&M finds a way to win, they jump up a notch. But even a 1-2 weekend would leave them at 9-15 with a final series at Georgia likely deciding their fate.
Work to Do
These teams still don’t have their NCAA Tournament slots locked up:
11. Kentucky (25-17, 10-11)
The Wildcats seem to be in good shape, although another midweek loss (to Western Kentucky) won’t help things. Kentucky could stand to win its series at Mississippi State, because not doing so would leave UK likely needing at least a 3-3 finish against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The Wildcats have generally been on the safe side of the ledger, but it could slide in a hurry.
10. Auburn (31-14, 11-10)
The Tigers did win their series at Mississippi State and are in better shape than Kentucky, but they need some heavy lifting to think about hosting in the NCAA Tournament. Road matchups at Tennessee this weekend and Ole Miss in the finale are bookended by hosting South Carolina. Sweep the Gamecocks and win a game from each of the other 2 and Auburn finishes 16-14 in the league.
9. Oklahoma (30-13, 11-10)
The Sooners are similarly likely in the NCAA field, but have a tough row to think about hosting. The series with Texas is certainly not a welcome sight on the schedule. This weekend’s home series with Ole Miss probably governs whether OU could reach 16 or 17 wins, but it looks unlikely.
8. Alabama (35-10, 12-9)
The Tide had their beatdown series with Missouri and thus find themselves up a notch. Somebody from the Alabama/Georgia/Vandy/Ole Miss quartet is probably going to be in line to host a super-regional. The Tide don’t have an easy path, with series matchups with Vandy and Florida on the road and Georgia in between. Alabama has a good shot at the regional hosting nod, but a top 8 spot and super-regional is a tough ask.
7. Ole Miss (32-13, 12-9)
A series win against Vanderbilt was a positive step. The Rebels still have to play at Oklahoma and Mississippi State and then host Auburn. Ole Miss has done plenty of damage at the plate, standing third in the SEC in batting average in league play (.276) and third in homers (41).
6. Vanderbilt (32-13, 12-9)
The Commodores have had to be efficient with pitching. They’re 14th in the SEC in batting average in league play, but need to up it a step at the plate. Series matchups with Alabama, at Tennessee and then home against Kentucky remain. If the season ended today, Vandy might get the No. 8 spot nationally. But of course, it doesn’t.
Super-Regional Hosts
These squads are trending toward hosting their super regionals:
5. Georgia (36-11, 12-9)
The Bulldogs have had some struggles, but the back end of the schedule is on their side. A trip to Mizzou this weekend and a home series with A&M to end the year should stack up to a solid 5-1 mark. The leaves the 3-game set at Alabama being pivotal. One win there would probably get the Bulldogs a top 8 spot.
4. Arkansas (37-9, 14-7)
The Hogs have had a remarkable season, led mostly at the plate. Arkansas’s .313 batting average in league play isn’t just the best in the league, it’s the best by 29 points. But the bats have gone quiet for the Hogs, just ahead of a brutal schedule run. Arkansas finishes against Texas, at LSU, and home against Tennessee. Even a 4-5 mark will get Arkansas a top 8 spot.
3. Tennessee (36-9, 13-8)
The Vols have lost 3 of their last 4 SEC series matchups. The schedule remains challenging and UT still will get its shot to make a postseason statement. Home matchups with Auburn and Vandy will be followed by a trip to Arkansas. A5-4 mark will be needed for UT to be safe in the top 8, but that feels plausible.
2. LSU (37-9, 14-7)
With A&M and South Carolina still ahead on the schedule, the Tigers can likely make it to 20 league victories. Between position and schedule, LSU is the team to watch in the SEC. Aside from Texas, nobody is better situated.
1. Texas (38-5, 19-2)
This weekend should clinch the top spot for the Horns. Texas has been so good in close games. Thirteen of the Horns’ 19 league wins had saves by the Texas bullpen. The Longhorns certainly have a target on their back as the top team in the nation.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
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