SEC Baseball Tournament Preview (or why Hoover matters)

The SEC Baseball Tournament will kick off on Tuesday in Hoover, Alabama. In fan world, that’s a great thing.

In player and coach world… well, for some people, that sentence ends with an exclamation mark. For others, it’s more like a groan. Some people criticize the SEC Tournament as an irrelevant trophy chase. That said, while every year, there seems to be an SEC team that stumbles around dazed in Hoover only to awaken in the NCAA Tournament, there’s almost always another team that emerges from both clueless and confused.

Also, the SEC probably did a good thing in ditching the double-elimination bracket of the past in favor of a completely single-elimination battle that rewards the top seeds by making them play fewer games.

A top-4 seeded team will only have to win 3 games in 3 days, much like a typical weekend of SEC baseball. Yes, those teams seeded fifth through eighth do have to add an extra game to the weekend, but only the bottom half of the league, playing on Tuesday, has to win 5 games to claim the crown. A year ago, both LSU and Tennessee had to play 5 games when they met in the final. The chance to win with a relatively normal schedule is probably a major point in favor of the SEC Tournament.

But at the end of the day, the fans who make the trek to Hoover make it special. Even for the vast majority of teams, who aren’t seeing any difference in regional hosting status or making the NCAA field, the chance to reward the traveling faithful is a pretty big deal. And after all, playing a few extra games doesn’t have to hurt. Just ask Tennessee.

So what’s worth thinking about on Tuesday?

Here’s a primer on the SEC Tournament:

Who has the most to gain or lose?

Kentucky sitting at 13-17 has a particularly significant game on Tuesday with Oklahoma. Sure, the Wildcats could still make the NCAA Tournament (5 different 13-17 teams did a year ago), but a win over the Sooners would lock it down. That said, the Wildcats will face Kyson Witherspoon and may well be in for a nervous Selection Sunday.

Alabama and Tennessee are the 2 teams most likely to be able to make the jump into regional hosting. Both teams are 16-14 in SEC play. Alabama seems to have the much better case for hosting. The Tide’s RPI ranking is 9th, while Tennessee’s is 16th. Additionally, Alabama won 2 of its last 4 SEC series matchups, while Tennessee has lost its last 5. Accordingly, Alabama could punch a hosting gig even by besting Tennessee in a second-round game on Wednesday (assuming the Tide outlast Missouri).

Texas has had a few bobbles down the stretch, going 3-6 in its final 3 SEC series matchups. Getting back on the right foot could be a powerful motive for the Longhorns.

And it’s a random point, but Georgia has never won an SEC Tournament (joining Kentucky, Missouri, and the new SEC schools on that short list). The regional hosting setup is locked in, but a first title would be a nice grab for the Bulldogs.

Who has the best chance to win?

Arkansas is the betting favorite and its explosive offense (along with having a top-4 seed) gives the Hogs a great shot at winning the SEC Tournament.

Texas is certainly getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment at the moment, but a bracket that likely requires wins over Tennessee or Alabama, then Georgia or Vanderbilt and then LSU or Arkansas isn’t exactly impossible.

Auburn might be the relative longshot with the best situation. The Tigers won 7 of their 10 SEC series matchups on the season. The Tigers have also scored 10 or more runs in 6 of their last 10 SEC games heading into Hoover.

Which 6 players deserve the closest scrutiny?

If Tennessee is going to awaken from a late-season slumber, Liam Doyle on the mound gives the Vols the best chance to rediscover their mojo. For Texas to start winning close games again, Dylan Volantis will be key. The issue more immediately is whether the Horns can score enough runs to get him the ball in save situations.

At the plate, reigning SEC Player of the Year Wehiwa Aloy will be the straw the stirs the Arkansas drink. Speaking of which, if the Auburn surprise comes to pass, Ike Irish’s slugging will be at the middle of any relevant upsets. Vandy has probably been underrepresented here, but RJ Austin is 8-for-21 coming into the Tournament and his league-leading 21 stolen bases could prove pivotal.

Florida, after resurrecting itself from a 1-11 league start, also should be watched. Bobby Boser’s power game can play well if he can avoid too many strikeouts.

Where did the power rankings go?

OK, extra innings power rankings. Texas A&M, South Carolina and Missouri are out of the NCAA Tournament running, with Kentucky barely ahead of them. In the NCAA, but on the outside of the hosting realm (in addition to Kentucky) are Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Florida, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Alabama (with the latter teams still have a long shot at claiming a regional hosting gig). Not only hosting but in line for super-regional hosting are Auburn, LSU, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Arkansas and Texas.

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.