At last, the coast is clear to make grand proclamations about the upcoming SEC football season. The transfer portal has closed, at least for departures, and there are no big fish on the market, at least big enough to be called season-changing. So as we unwind this offseason and take a fresh look around, there are two grand proclamations to be made:
1. The SEC’s two best teams are clearly Texas and Georgia, and in that order.
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2. After that, it’s wide open.
Too boring to simply proclaim that the two best teams are the two that made the conference championship game and were the last two SEC teams in the College Football Playoff? Well, sorry. It’s just the obvious conclusion, especially after a spring that saw both programs solidify their spots, especially through the portal.
Too easy an out, when predicting third place and onward, that a glut of candidates exists and none is a clear favorite? Sorry again, and the caveat is hereby issued that inevitably some team will emerge, perhaps even to challenge or leapfrog Texas and Georgia. Perhaps multiple teams.
But picking which team or teams those will be requires a level of confidence that the facts on the ground don’t match. There are plenty of candidates. There are many flaws among them. There will be carnage in an SEC schedule that saw plenty of it last year, and this year’s slate is essentially the same as 2024’s, just with the home sites flipped.
That could include Texas and Georgia, which meet on Nov. 15 in Athens. They met in October last year and still managed to see each other again in Atlanta. That they could do so again was buttressed by their offseasons.
Texas
In perhaps the smoothest quarterback transition ever, Arch Manning steps in after two years of occasional starts for Quinn Ewers, who played well for Texas but wasn’t so irreplaceable that the NFL deigned to pick him in the first six rounds of last week’s draft. The Longhorns then armed Manning this spring with help from the Bay Area: receiver Emmet Mosley V (Stanford) and tight end Cal Endries (Cal). This was with Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore, both of whom finished top-five on last year’s team in receiving yards, also back.
On defense, Texas signed five defensive linemen between the two portal periods and could have one of the best front sevens in college football. Between that, the projected passing game and the program’s status as the only team to make the last two CFPs — oh, and a manageable schedule — it’s easy to pick the Longhorns as national preseason No. 1.
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Georgia
Kirby Smart has never been a heavy portal guy, preferring to use it strategically. This year’s portal haul is along those lines, but if Georgia ends up returning to the national championship game for the third time in five years, transfers may be a key reason.
The post-winter window was successful enough. Georgia needed receivers and got them: Noah Thomas (Texas A&M) for the outside and Zachariah Branch (USC) for the slot, plus Branch’s brother Zion and two others for depth at safety.
But the post-spring window may have been just as big. Elo Modozie (Army) could start right away, and tailback Josh McCray (Illinois) gives the Bulldogs an experienced tailback, which was badly needed after Trevor Etienne went pro.
These weren’t eye-popping, multi-million-dollar deals, but they shored up weak spots. And just as importantly, Georgia didn’t lose any key players in the post-spring window and didn’t suffer any long-term injuries in spring practice. Georgia’s roster is now fortified for another national championship run, with things seeming to depend on two spots: starting quarterback Gunner Stockton and a young offensive line. The theme of spring practice was that the team feels good about Stockton.
Everybody else
The candidates to take a leap forward
Several name-brand programs have been down for a year or more but are primed to make a move, and one or two of them will. But which ones?
Oklahoma should gain buzz as the season draws closer. This program projected extreme urgency this offseason, bringing in ex-Senior Bowl executive Jim Nagy as general manager, offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State and two big offensive additions in each portal window: quarterback John Mateer (Washington State) in the winter and running back Jaydn Ott (California) in the spring. The offensive line, the weak point last year, was fortified by Stanford’s Jake Maikkula and Western Carolina’s Derek Simmons. The receivers could get better just by being healthy. The defense could be good just because Brent Venables is still in charge.
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Auburn is intriguing. Hugh Freeze has spent his first two years upgrading the roster, with a new quarterback (Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma) and receivers Eric Singleton (Georgia Tech) and Horatio Fields (Wake Forest) arriving from the portal this offseason, among other key pieces.
Florida finished strong last year and has a potential game-changing quarterback, as long as DJ Lagway’s shoulder is healthy.
LSU has plenty of offensive firepower for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier going into his second year as the starter. The question, as it’s been for a couple of years, is the defense.
These are four programs — Oklahoma, Auburn, Florida, LSU — that based on name brand would not surprise anyone by making a leap. The question is how reasonably high they can leap, especially Oklahoma from 6-7 and Auburn from 5-7.
Last year’s CFP near-misses
Note: This is not, repeat not, to put these teams behind the above teams in any preseason expectations. These are simply the SEC teams that were ranked in the final CFP rankings but didn’t make the field, plus Texas A&M, which was in the SEC championship race until the final weekend.
Alabama is still Alabama, with plenty of talent on hand and a coach who has won everywhere he’s been. But Kalen DeBoer has a new quarterback (Ty Simpson), and the way the Tide finished last season didn’t leave a great impression.
South Carolina is coming off a breakthrough season, and with quarterback LaNorris Sellers (and edge Dylan Stewart) many things are possible. But the Gamecocks did lose some key pieces.
Ole Miss has to replace quarterback Jaxson Dart and other standouts, but QB Austin Simmons looked good in limited duty last year, and Lane Kiffin has remained active in the portal.
Eli Drinkwitz has gone 10-3 and 11-2 the past two years and has earned some leeway at Missouri. He may need it this year after losing quarterback Brady Cook, receiver Luther Burden and other key starters. Then again, Mizzou has remained active in the portal and has recruited pretty well, so there may be no step back.
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Texas A&M was better in the first year of the Mike Elko era and looks solid on both sides of the ball. The question is how far quarterback Marcel Reed can take the Aggies.
Tennessee: In its own category
It may be that Nico Iamaleava’s spring departure for UCLA is a galvanizing moment for the program. Perhaps the locker room is now rallied around Josh Heupel and his staff, spurring something positive that’s hard to quantify. But either way, trading Iamaleava for Joey Aguilar does appear to be a step down, especially considering Aguilar has to learn a new system in a few months. Prior to Iamaleava’s exit, Tennessee wasn’t going to start the season as a top-10 team. The defense has the pieces to be good again, and Heupel’s offense, fortified by Duke transfer tailback Star Thomas, could still do well. But another CFP appearance appears too much to ask.
And finally, the you-never-know set
Vanderbilt gets another year of the Diego Pavia experience thanks to a courtroom victory. That is very good, but how far can it go?
Arkansas has Taylen Green back at quarterback, and maybe Sam Pittman can win just enough to again keep his job. Kentucky appears to be merely treading water. Mississippi State can’t do worse than last year, but how much better can it do?
There’s no guarantee Texas or Georgia win the conference title or even make the Playoff. As things stand now, however, they are the clear two best bets. And who emerges behind them — or instead of them — will be fascinating to watch. Well over half the league has an argument to make a push into the top tier, and that should make for a compelling season.
(Photo: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
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