Inside: A quick draft primer, plus Aaron Rodgers’ time in Pittsburgh, Jerry Jones’ status among owners and another potential first-round QB. Let’s get right to it.
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NFL Draft Primer
On April 24 — one month from today — this year’s draft begins in Green Bay, Wisconsin. It should kick off with the Titans making their first No. 1 pick since 1978 (when they nabbed Hall of Fame RB Earl Campbell), but they could instead move that pick to the QB-needy Browns or Giants.
As our focus shifts to the draft, a quick guide on where things stand for now:
Who holds the most picks? The Ravens and 49ers each have a league-high 11 after receiving the maximum of four compensatory picks for last year’s free-agent departures. San Francisco’s draft starts at No. 11, and Baltimore’s at No. 27. Beat reporter Jeff Zrebiec sees the Ravens stealing Texas CB Jahdae Barron in our latest beat reporter mock draft.
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Most top-50 picks? The Bears are still cashing in from 2023’s trade of the Bryce Young pick. The holders of the Panthers’ second-round pick are the only team with three selections in the top 50: No. 10, 39 and 41.
Which team has the most value? Tankathon’s draft-capital rankings point to the Browns, followed closely by the Jaguars. Each starts in the top five (No. 2 for Cleveland, No. 5 for Jacksonville) and has 10 picks.
- 🤯 stat: The Jaguars are picking in the top 10 for the 14th time in the past 17 years! (And only two of those were trades into the top 10.)
The least value? The Vikings are paying the price for their two first-round trades last April (for J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner). They hold an NFL-low four picks in this year’s draft: Nos. 24, 97, 139 and 187.
Best-positioned playoff team? Of the 14 teams in last year’s postseason, only Buffalo ranks in the top 15 in draft capital. That’s largely thanks to the Stefon Diggs trade — the Bills received Minnesota’s 2025 second-round pick from Houston, meaning Buffalo has three picks in the top 75, starting at No. 30.
No. 1 still means everything. The Titans are expected to take Miami QB Cam Ward with their first pick. Even after Jayden Daniels outplayed Caleb Williams in 2024, taking the top-ranked quarterback at the top of the draft is one of the NFL’s safest bets. Some stats back that claim up:
- A quarter of the league’s starting QBs were taken first overall.
- Since 2011, 10 quarterbacks have been drafted No. 1. After Bryce Young’s 2024 improvement, only Jameis Winston could be considered a bust — and even he might be the Giants’ new starter after a decade in the league. The others, from Cam Newton (2011) to Caleb Williams (2024), have been either starters or stars.
- When picking QBs elsewhere in the top 10, the historical odds of drafting stars fall by 34 percent. I walked through it all last offseason.
What do the odds say? At this time last year, Vegas projected the Vikings to draft McCarthy and the Broncos to take Bo Nix. The house always wins, right? Here’s what most sportsbooks are projecting this time, other than Ward going No. 1:
- No. 2: Odds favor Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter as the second pick, which diverges from The Athletic’s most recent mock, where Ben Standig sees a Cleveland reach for Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders.
- Top receivers: Since Travis Hunter is listed as a cornerback, Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan is expected to be the first receiver drafted, followed closely by Texas’ Matthew Golden before a big drop to Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka. They’re the big three, though a different kind of three is arguably the most talented: Missouri’s Luther Burden III.
- Tightest positional race: It’s easy to identify Vegas’ top players at most positions, such as RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Tyler Warren. The closest odds? Defensive back, where it’s an even split at the top pick between Texas CB Jahdae Barton and Michigan CB Will Johnson. Barton goes first in Ben’s mock, landing with the Dolphins at No. 13, and then Jim Harbaugh reunites with Johnson.
Up next, a quick note from Dianna:
What Dianna’s Hearing: Rodgers’ Friday in Pittsburgh
In Pittsburgh, there was optimism that Aaron Rodgers would be a Steeler right now, but the sides didn’t get there on Friday. Rodgers met with Steelers coaches, including Mike Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, for six hours. At the beginning of the meeting, a team source I spoke with was optimistic that they would hammer out a deal before the 41-year-old quarterback left the building.
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That doesn’t mean it’s over. I’m told the meeting went well, and sources I’ve spoken to around the league believe Rodgers will end up in black and gold. But — in case you haven’t picked up on it yet — Rodgers is in no rush to make a decision on 2025. We have more details here.
Back to you, Jacob.
Which owners really want to win?
It’s 2025 and most Cowboys fans don’t trust Jerry Jones. Sentiments were similar in 1989, when he began his tenure as owner by firing one of the best coaches of all time, Tom Landry, before canning longtime GM Tex Schramm too. The Jones experience began with full control and a 1-15 record.
But replacing Landry with Jimmy Johnson, among other shrewd moves, led to three Super Bowl wins in the 1990s. Fans still thank Jones for those years, though their patience has since worn thin.
The Athletic’s Mike Jones evaluated each owner’s contributions toward winning, writing this about the Cowboys kingpin:
“Jerry Jones loves to claim he wants to win another Super Bowl in the worst way. But above all, Jones loves being the center of attention and maintaining control.
“That causes him to hold onto coaches too long because he doesn’t want to pay them not to work, or to pass on hiring the most talented coaches because they might want more power than he’s willing to cede.
“Jones also tends to drag out player negotiations because he’s determined to pay them on his timeline, even if it means ultimately costing himself more in the long run.”
The full article has Jones in the Stuck in Struggle Mode group with Shad Khan, the Haslams and Jim Irsay. Yikes.
Extra Point: How Jaxson Dart rises
Miami’s Ward is the undisputed No. 1 QB in this class, followed by Colorado’s Sanders, then … uncertainty? Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart hopes to bridge that gap. Dart’s ceiling is higher than anyone’s besides Ward’s, but Ted Nguyen’s film review explains why we have major questions about Dart’s game.
I asked our college football newsletter writer, Jason Kirk, if Dart is this year’s projected Day 2 pick who could surprise as a Week 1 starter. His answer:
“I wouldn’t be shocked if Dart becomes a decent starter for a team that gambles a pick in the 20s. Anyone else would feel like a pretty desperate reach to me. The good version of Alabama’s Jalen Milroe is a top-10 pick, though he also has a bad version, sadly.”
The potential range of outcomes here: Dart wasn’t picked in Dane Brugler’s early January two-round mock, while Mel Kiper recently mocked Dart to the Saints at No. 9. I’ll let you guess which one I think might’ve been for engagement.
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(Photo: Tim Warner/ Getty Images)
