The men’s college basketball season opens Monday, but right now, you don’t know what you don’t know.
The shift in rosters has been so extreme for most teams it’s difficult to assess how this season will unfold. Even coaches Penny Collins at Tennessee State and Casey Alexander at Belmont said out loud that they don’t know how it’s going to go (although both were confident their teams would be winners).
All the uncertainty is not going to stop Main Street Nashville from making some predictions. In fact, the predictions will be three-dimensional, projecting how each team in the greater Nashville area will do if everything goes right (the ceiling), goes poorly (the floor) and finally the most likely reality. Predictions in alphabetical order.
BELMONT
Ceiling: 24-7, Alexander has set a lofty goal for new point guard Carter Whitt; he wants him to lead the country in assists. In this scenario, he does that, all the other transfers have career years, sophomore big man Brigham Rogers has a breakout season, plus quality depth develops.
Floor: 12-19, The transfers, all of whom were mostly substitutes on their previous teams, fail to rise to the occasion as starters. The schedule, filled with games that seem to be tossups, proves to be too difficult.
Reality: 17-14, Putting together a new team takes time so there will be some good moments that show potential but there will be an equal amount of bad moments. Staying a little bit above .500 seems the likely scenario.
LIPSCOMB
Ceiling: 26-5, The Bisons are the preseason pick to win the ASUN but a record like this would include some significant non-conference victories. This type of performance would probably need all-league seasons from Jacob Ognacevic and Will Pruitt and sophomore big man Dylan Faulkner almost equaling that.
Floor: 19-12, Not exactly a bad season but more is expected of this group. A record like this would mean the Bisons didn’t extract a big upset from their difficult non-conference schedule and struggled at times in ASUN play. Warning: Ognacevic has missed lots of time with injuries the last two seasons, a repeat of that might mean a lower floor.
Reality: 22-9, It’s unlikely the Bisons will pull off any upsets at Duquesne, Arkansas, Kentucky and Western Kentucky. However, they are still the dominant team in the ASUN and should prove that and finish first in the regular season ensuring homecourt advantage throughout the conference tournament.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Ceiling: 26-5, Transfer Kamari Lands lives up to his potential (he was rated as a top 100 player coming out of high school) and becomes CUSA player of the year. Point guard Camryn Weston, returning from an ACL injury, regains his all-CUSA form.
Floor: 10-21, To fall this far, Lands would have to underachieve and Weston would be still hindered by his knee. Shooting problems, which plagued this team last season, resurface and poor offense prevents them from winning.
Reality: 20-11, The Blue Raiders are definitely underrated and should be a contender in CUSA. The non-conference schedule has its challenges (UAB, Tennessee) but it’s not insurmountable. There are available victories.
TENNESSEE STATE
Ceiling: 22-9, The Tigers are a completely revamped team but so is every other team in the Ohio Valley Conference. This record could happen if point guard Justus Jackson has an all-league season and becomes a leader on both ends of the court.
Floor: 10-21, Actually, if this roster doesn’t come together (a possibility), the record could be even worse than this. However, the OVC games should provide some opportunities for victory no matter how bad things get.
Reality: 18-13, Jackson does have the appearance of a good point guard and he will be a key player to help attain this type of record. Plus, Ahmir Langlais and Josh Ogundele become key players in the front court.
VANDERBILT
Ceiling: 20-11, First-year coach Mark Byington was able to obtain transfers that should make a difference particularly on the perimeter so this record would mean A.J. Hoggard (Michigan State) and Jason Edwards (North Texas) become a dynamic pairing. It might even make the Commodores an NCAA Tournament bubble team.
Floor: 9-22, The Commodores will be without big man Kijani White for a long time, maybe the entire season because of an undisclosed health issue. Because of that, this team lacks size and it could hurt them especially in SEC play. Teams could dominate Vandy inside on offense and defense.
Reality: 14-17, The guards, Hoggard, Edwards and Tyler Nickel should account for a lot of good offense that will translate into some good victories. The lack of size, however, will be mean some difficult nights. This is most likely an under .500 team.
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