A final set of seven questions before spring training begins next week!
1. What are the Red Sox going to do with the No. 1 farm system in baseball?
This week, Baseball America placed the Red Sox at No. 1 in their organizational rankings.
Somewhat remarkably, despite producing some of the best homegrown talent of the last four decades, this is the first time Boston has ever been the top dog in the publication’s annual preseason grades, which began in 1984.
Consider, too, that there used to be significantly less competition in the early years of these evaluations, which began when each league had 12 teams; BA’s rankings are over a decade older than the Rays, a franchise known for churning out a seemingly-endless stream of homegrown talent. The minor leagues were also decades away from the level of intense scrutiny brought on when baseball entered the analytics-heavy Moneyball era in the early 2000s. Better late than never, though.
Then again, how much does being the No. 1 organization matter?
The Red Sox have been immensely successful without such an honor for years. Since BA began their rankings, Boston has eight Wild Card berths, nine division titles, five pennants, and after ending their 86-year drought in ‘04, four World Series titles, the most by any team this century.
Most teams’ year-over-year rankings resemble cardiograms, ricocheting up and down peaks and valleys as the farm is depleted and replenished over and over in the pursuit of championships.
That’s what matters. Or rather, what should matter most. Elite farm systems are the means to an October end, not the end goal.
Or as manager Alex Cora put it in July 2023, “It’s not about how many prospects you have or where your farm system is. It might be No. 1, or 30th, or whatever. The one that really counts is how many games you win in October and how many games you play in October. That’s what we’re shooting for.”
So yes, kudos to you, Red Sox. You’re finally No. 1. Now what?
2. Is it time to give Chaim Bloom his due yet?
When the Sox abruptly dismissed Chaim Bloom on an afternoon in mid-September 2023, I likened him to Moses, leading the Israelites through the desert for 40 years only to be told he wasn’t allowed to enter the Promised Land with his people: “Someone else will reap the benefits of his hard work. His successor will inherit the kind of strong foundation he did not. Chaim Bloom accepted a thankless task. When the Red Sox hoist their next World Series trophy, he should at least get a ‘Thank you’ note.”
The Red Sox entered 2019 with the No. 30 farm system (Baseball America), then hired Bloom to replace Dave Dombrowski at season’s end. By the time Bloom was sent packing, Boston ranked fifth. Presently, there are four Red Sox prospects on BA’s Top 100, including Roman Anthony, who ascended to No. 1 last year. All four were drafted or signed by Bloom.
3. How can the Sox be one of the most improved teams and be projected to finish last?
According to the PECOTA standings, the 2025 Red Sox will finish with 78.7 wins and 83.3 losses, fifth in the American League East behind the Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays. None of their division rivals are projected to lose more than 80 games.
For arguments sake, let’s round that up to a 79-83 finish. That would be a significant step back for Boston, who went 81-81 and held on to third place in the East last year. (In part because the Jays and Rays were disasters.)
Yet according to Mike Petriello of MLB.com, the Red Sox added the most projected Wins Above Replacement of any American League team this offseason, only outdone by the Mets and Dodgers. DraftKings Sportsbook gives Garrett Crochet the second-best odds to win the AL Cy Young, and Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell are the second and third favorites to win AL Rookie of the Year.
How could a team with talent like that finish under .500? It wouldn’t be the first time.
Projections are also often wrong, especially when they’re based entirely on numbers. Last year, PECOTA had the Sox winning 80 and finishing last, and the Blue Jays second with 88 wins. Toronto finished last, with only 74 wins.
But as David Ortiz loves to say, let people see the Red Sox as underdogs. It only makes it sweeter when they don’t see it coming.
4. Where will Alex Bregman end up?
Someone sign him already, please.
5. Remember when Truck Day was a thing?
Monday was Truck Day, when tens of thousands of baseballs, bats, batting gloves, jerseys, and cases of bubblegum and sunflower seeds begin their journey from Fenway Park to the Red Sox spring training facility in Fort Myers.
The annual sendoff used to be a big deal. Anything and everything Red Sox used to be a big deal. Grownups would put off going into work, parents would let their children miss a few hours of school. Crowds would gather and brave the frigid February winds to watch the truck drive away, because it meant baseball was finally coming back, and they just wanted to feel like they were a part of it.
Yet another sign of how much damage the Sox have done to their relationship with their Fenway Faithful.
6. What were MLB pitchers made of in the 1940s?
Each offseason, I try to read (or re-read, in the case of Jim Bouton’s “Ball Four”) as many baseball books as I can. This stat, from the late, great David Halberstam’s “Summer of ‘49,” blew my mind:
Over the Red Sox’s final 19 games of the season, Ellis Kinder and Mel Parnell combined for 10 starts and seven relief appearances. They also warmed up in multiple games in which they didn’t pitch.
7. Which small ‘What if’ moments had the biggest ripple effect in Red Sox history?
Set aside the big “What ifs” such as selling Babe Ruth, trading Mookie Betts and Nomar Garciaparra, passing on a young Willie Mays, and wondering how much more Ted Williams could’ve done if there hadn’t been a war.
Here are some smaller, lesser-known decisions and their enormous ripple effects.
What if the Yankees had signed Johnny Pesky instead of Phil Rizzuto?
Imagine if manager Joe McCarthy had started Mel Parnell instead of Denny Galehouse when the Red Sox faced Cleveland in the first-ever one-game playoff, to decide the pennant in ‘48. Perhaps the Red Sox’s championship drought would’ve ended then; they were fairly evenly matched with the Indians, who went on to defeat the Boston Braves 4-2 in the World Series.
Or, about the following year, when the pennant came down to the Red Sox and Yankees in the final game of the season, and McCarthy pulled the nearly-untouchable Ellis Kinder for a pinch-hitter?
What if Boston’s Impossible Dream ace Jim Lonborg hadn’t injured himself skiing during the ‘67-68 offseason and inspired teams to add hazardous activity clauses to player contracts? Such a rule enabled the Yankees to terminate Aaron Boone’s contract after he tore his ACL playing pickup basketball, opening the door for them to acquire Alex Rodriguez in 2004.
My inbox awaits your “What ifs.”
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