Hello, friends.
There are now three months and 19 days remaining until Orioles Opening Day 2025, with spring training’s beginning (not officially announced yet) roughly two months and a handful of days away. More immediately, the winter meetings start tomorrow. The Orioles have already gotten in on the pre-meetings activity with last night’s reported signing of outfielder Tyler O’Neill and then they did it again with last night’s reported signing of catcher Gary Sánchez.
What’s your first reaction to the signing of O’Neill? To the surprise of no regular reader of this website, I look at the contract and see only the pitfalls. This is a guy who gets hurt a lot and he’s had some not very good hitting seasons in his career, including the last two seasons before this one. He has poor range, though a strong arm. He swings the ball hard but he misses a lot. I would have just let it fly with Heston Kjerstad and not worried about the platoon imbalance in the outfield. There are many reasons why I am merely the person in charge of this blog.
As for the signing of Sánchez, there’s not much to see for pitfalls when it comes to the backup catcher spot. Expectations are low and the recent track record for Sánchez is that he ought to be able to meet those low expectations. He can hit enough – just a shade below league average in 2024 – and more or less play defense well enough to handle about how often the Orioles are likely to play him.
One thing I will say is that this is the first sign that things might actually be different around here compared to the years where the Angelos family was controlling the figurative purse strings. O’Neill’s contract is for $49.5 million over three years. That’s not chump change, with an average annual value of $16.5 million. Add the Sánchez money onto that and it’s $25 million added to the payroll for next year. O’Neill does have the ability to opt out of the contract after one year, so he might not even be here for the three years. The best outcome is that he plays so well and stays so healthy that he’s gone after one season.
There is a big difference in the level of commitment between these two signings and, say, one of the top-end starting pitchers, whether that’s Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. Three years for an outfielder plus one year for a backup catcher and seven years for a starting pitcher are different beasts. Burnes or Fried could nearly double that O’Neill AAV with more than double the years on top. I’ll still believe that when I see it.
However, in the aftermath of Saturday’s reported signing, there’s now no reason not to think that the Orioles could at least deal in the middle tier of the free agent market, in the $60-80 million range for guys like Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty, or Nathan Eovaldi. Those guys are going to probably cost more than O’Neill, but they’re not going to get into nine figures. Each of them has things you could talk yourself into about them.
If the available free agents don’t prove to the Orioles liking, they could try to address the rotation need by trade – as they did within the last couple of weeks before spring training this year in getting Burnes. Until Garrett Crochet is traded by the White Sox, he’s going to keep attracting trade rumors. The O’s could get him if they decide he’s worth what they’d have to pay.
I think it’s unlikely that every relevant pitcher will have signed within 96 hours from now. Maybe none of them will sign over the meetings. It’s worth remembering that last year’s winter meetings were largely a dud, with the Orioles signing of Craig Kimbrel being the most significant roster move made by any team.
That’s not looking like it will be the case this year, though, with even Scott Boras clients (including O’Neill) signing early and tea leaf signs seeming to point towards the mega-contract for Juan Soto being settled soon. We could end up where there’s not much notable free agent business left to be resolved by the time Christmas rolls around. It won’t feel great if the game of musical chairs stops and the Orioles don’t have a starting pitcher who improves the rotation. But there’s no need to worry about that until the music stops. We’re not there yet.
Around the blogO’sphere
The case for an ace: Examining free agent profiles of Corbin Burnes, Max Fried (The Baltimore Sun)
One time at the lunch table in high school, there was a conversation about whether it would be better to date Britney Spears or Christina Aguilera, as if any of those young men were ever going to have both of those pop stars interested in him. My mind goes back to that place as I contemplate the idea of the Orioles signing Burnes or Fried.
Evaluating Burnes’s market heading into the winter meetings (Orioles.com)
Does it mean anything that Elias has apparently told Boras that “Baltimore is in a position to be highly competitive”? I guess we’re going to find out.
Taking a much-too-early look at Orioles 26-man roster (School of Roch)
Can I just tell you how not exciting an Opening Day projected rotation that includes both Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers feels right now? I’m more willing to believe that will change than I was in the first version of this article that I drafted, before the news broke of the O’Neill signing.
Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries
Today in 1996, the Orioles agreed on a contract with 35-year-old free agent pitcher Jimmy Key. In the 1979 season, Key started 34 games and threw 212.1 innings, with results good enough for a 128 ERA+. His two years with the Orioles ended up being the final two years of his career.
There are couple of former Orioles who were born on this day. One of them is Hall of Famer Mike Mussina, whose O’s career spanned from 1991 to 2000. Today is Mussina’s 56th birthday. It’s also the birthday of 2002-04 infielder José León. Happy birthday.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: Mary, Queen of Scots (1542), inventor Eli Whitney (1765), composer Jean Sibelius (1865), musician Gregg Allman (1947), musician Sinead O’Connor (1966), and rapper Nicki Minaj (1982).
On this day in history…
In 1660, the role of Desdemona in Shakespeare’s Othello was played by a woman, marking the first known time an English stage had a woman act in any capacity. Three women are considered to have been possibilities; most historians seem to think an actress named Margaret Hughes broke the barrier.
In 1914, during World War I, an outgunned German squadron attempting to escape home from its base in Asia was defeated by the British in the Battle of the Falkland Islands, losing six of eight ships with nearly 2,000 men killed.
In 1963, lightning struck Pan Am Flight 214, which then crashed in Maryland near Elkton. 81 people were on Boeing 707, all of whom died in the crash.
In 1980, former Beatles musician John Lennon was shot and killed in New York City.
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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on December 8. Have a safe Sunday.
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