Sunday Sweats: Eight bets to add to your NFL Week 18 card

Maybe Sunday Sweats has been focused on the wrong sport this year.

Week 17 came and went with another sputter on the NFL front. It was one of the column’s worst showings of what’s already been a down year, but would have been even worse if it wasn’t for the NFL’s little brother.

College football provided some salvation. A moneyline parlay on Penn State and Notre Dame to win in the College Football Playoff flew in, while a lookahead-line bet on Ohio State -1.5 over Texas in the semifinals has already aged well.

The Buckeyes are now as high as 6.5-point favorites.

The college football options are diminished this week, however, so it’s back to trying to solve the NFL.

Find eight wagers for Week 18 in the usual categories wagers below. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Non point spread bets placed inside of the weekly NFL pick’em and elsewhere will also be accounted for here. Make sure to check back to lasvegassun.com Sunday for one final bet, on a prop in the Raiders’ gameday section that will also be attached to the Sunday Sweats record.

Tasty Total (18-15, $500): Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers under 48.5 points at -115 (Boyd Sports)

$230 to win $200

I already detailed why I don’t think the point spread should have swung so much between the first and second meetings between these AFC North divisional rivals. The total might be a tougher sell, but I have the same issue. The Week 13 total on Pittsburgh at Cincinnati was over/under 46 points. Sure, they combined to score 82 points in a Pittsburgh shootout victory bit the game script this time around should be a lot different. And the scoring environment should be lower. The forecast for Acrisure Stadium calls for cold and wind, perhaps enough to even slightly hold back Cincinnati’s highly explosive offense. I’d make this over/under 46 points, the same line as the first game.  

Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (5-14, -$1,792): Atlanta Falcons -2 and New York Giants +8.5 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

There are a ton of teaser options available this week with spreads that can move through the 3 and 7 as well as games with low totals. But it’s a minefield requiring careful tiptoeing not to encounter the one that’s going to incinerate everything. I haven’t been graceful in that department this year but hope Week 18 can provide some redemption. The Panthers’ defense, already worst in the league and now also beaten up, should prevent them from giving the Falcons a serious scare. Maybe the Panthers’ offense makes the game closer than anticipated but an outright win sounds like too big of an ask. Meanwhile, the Eagles appear to be resting more players than anyone in the NFC. The Giants are nothing special, to say the least, but they’re coming off a breakout where they scored 45 points in a victory over the Colts. They should be able to beat a divisional-rival team of backups.   

Moneyline Parlay (3-13, -$1,242.18): Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts at -132 (Caesars/William Hill)

$264 to win $200

If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em, right? That’s a terrible mindset, of course, and not really the reason why I’m stringing together a couple big favorites in the regular-season finale. Or maybe I should say not the only reason. I must admit to being a bit gunshy to include any underdogs in the moneyline parlay after having done so repeatedly in recent weeks to torch the bottom line in this category. The underdogs simply aren’t getting done in the NFL over the final month of the season, so I’m switching gears and searching for favorites that I think are underpriced. Caesars had among the best odds in the market on both these teams with Green Bay at -480 (i.e. risking $480 to win $100) and Indianapolis at -200. The opposing Bears and Jaguars, respectively, are messes. I’m happy to bet against both those sides.

Player Prop (16-13, $266): Jared Goff over 278.5 pass yards at -115 (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

Unless the Lions are going to get out to a big lead and play from ahead most of the game, this number is too short. I don’t think the Lions are going to get out to a big lead and play from ahead most of the game. More likely, their offense will have to keep up in another shootout created by their continued defensive struggles. Goff has been able to pilot that kind of effort efficiently lately, having eclipsed this total in four straight games. Detroit might have been a run-heavy team early in the season but it’s No. 9 in the NFL over the last month by throwing on more than 62% of plays. That’s probably not going to change here in the highest-totaled game of the season at over/under 56.5 points.

Anytime Touchdown (8-12, $476.50): Najee Harris at +120 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $240

Hot take alert: Najee Harris is the most likely scorer in this evening’s game even though he’s priced fourth (behind Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown and Tee Higgins). But Brown is hurt and seems to be at serious risk of missing the game while Chase and Higgins naturally cannibalize one another. Joe Burrow can only throw to one of them at a time, obviously. Harris meanwhile has dominated the Steelers’ touches near the end zone all season. He has 46 carries in the red zone and 23 inside the 10-yard line. This line seems like an overreaction to Harris having failed to score in each of the last three weeks. But the Chiefs’, Ravens’ and Eagles’ rush defenses are all significantly better than the Bengals’ unit he’ll face here. Cincinnati sits No. 27 in the NFL in rushing defense per DVOA. I think Pittsburgh will win, and in most scenarios where Pittsburgh wins, it needs Harris to score.  

Lookahead Line (10-10, -$347.50): AFC -115 moneyline vs. NFC in Super Bowl 59 (Caesars/William Hill)

$230 to win $200

There’s no way the Super Bowl should be sitting as a virtual pick’em. Technically, the AFC is a 1-point favorite over the NFC but I’m pivoting to the moneyline for what might be a slightly better bet. I think the current line is too influenced by how dominant Detroit looked midseason. Those days are gone with how badly their defense has fallen apart via injuries. I’d favor Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas City over them in a potential Super Bowl matchup. Heck, give me that trio of team regardless of who gets there against whatever side comes out of the NFC. I currently price the AFC as a 3-point favorite and have a difficult time ever seeing it available at a price less than this come game time in February.

Future Finding (0-2, -$400): Super Bowl Matchup — Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings at 20-to-1 (BetMGM)

$50 to win $1,000

This is probably not the wisest bet ever made here, but pickings are slim in this category with most markets off the board in the final week of the regular season. This becomes a de facto FOMO (fear of missing out) bet. We’ve reached the point of the season where I’m getting asked repeatedly who I think is going to make the Super Bowl. I’ve kept my answer consistent in calling for the Prince (or Barney?) all-pruple Super Bowl matchup between the Ravens and Vikings. And while, yes, Sunday Sweats already has futures on both of those teams getting to the Superdome, it would be a shame not to get a little bonus if it happens given my confidence on both sides. The price might not be undeniable value, but it already looks fair and will drop if the Vikings beat the Lions and get the No. 1 seed this weekend.

Nonfootball Play (8-8, $375): Houston -10 vs. BYU (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

BYU’s strength of schedule, per kenpom.com, rates 346^th in the nation. The Cougars (Utah version) have gotten off to an impressive 10-2 straight-up start under new coach Kevin Young, but this game might be a bit of a culture shock. They arguably haven’t played a single team with a formidable defense. Now BYU gets the most formidable defense. Houston has taken its usual perch as the No. 1 team in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Cougars (Texas version) have racked up more blowout wins than any program in the last few years, including a 60-47 victory over Oklahoma State in their Big 12 opener on the road earlier this week. This should be another one. I made Houston a 12-point favorite over BYU.   

Sunday Sweats season to date: 68-79, -$1,862.18

Weekend betting column year to date: 0-0, $0

Weekend betting column all-time: 815-894-5, $39,668.09 

Previous pending wagers: Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Dave Canales to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Carolina Hurricanes to win President’s Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +425 ($200 to win $950); CeeDeee Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Year at 10-to-1 ($300 to win $3,000); Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Player of the Year at 16-to-1 ($200 to win $3,200); Justin Madubuike to win Defensive Player of the Year at 100-to-1 ($25 to win $2,500); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); James Cook to lead the NFL in rushing yards at 35-to-1 ($65 to win $2,275); Bo Nix to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); JJ McCarthy to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($75 to win $1,875); Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Chop Robinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($110 to win $2,200); Penn State to make the College Football Playoff at -125 ($250 to win $200); Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at +175 ($300 to win $525); Miami to win the ACC at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Miami Dolphins to win the AFC East at +225 ($200 to win $550); Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North at +155 ($200 to win $310); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at 3-to-1 ($200 to win $600); Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West at -265 ($530 to win $200); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North at +1425 ($50 to win $712.50); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -190 ($380 to win $200); Brian Thomas to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 25-to-1 ($80 to win $2,000);Aaron Rodgers to win Comeback Player of the Year at +175 ($300 to win $525); Dallas Turner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +750 ($270 to win $2,025); Edmonton Oilers to win President’s Trophy at 6-to-1 ($300 to win $1,800); All NBA Cup futures; Brock Purdy to win NFL MVP at 12-to-1 ($230 to win $2,760); Ja’Marr Chase to win Offensive Player of the Year at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Washington Commanders to win the NFC East at +135 ($300 to win $405); Ryan Dunn to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 12-to-1 ($190 to win $1,280); Houston basketball to win the Big 12 regular season title at +250 ($200 to win $500); Auburn basketball to win the SEC regular season title at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); San Diego State to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title at +450 ($200 to win $900); Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC at +550 ($300 to win $1,650); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC at +625 ($240 to win $1,560); Green Bay Packers to win the NFC at 8-to-1 ($200 to win $1,600); South Carolina women’s basketball to win the national championship at +305 ($500 to win $1,525); Ohio State -1.5 vs. Texas lookahead line College Football semifinal; San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals over 42.5 ($220 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or