Kansas will look to stack wins in the ultra competitive Big 12 and build some momentum ahead of the Big 12 Tournament in a few weeks with a high level matchup against Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have been among the best teams in the Big 12, but recent injuries have derailed the team’s trajectory a bit, but the team will hopefully have Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian on the floor on Saturday against a Jayhawks team that has won two straight after dropping a pair on the road.
What can we expect from this conference clash? Let’s break it down, starting with the odds.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 144.5 (Over -115//Under -105)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas Tech
JT Toppin OVER 10.5 Rebounds (+100)
Toppin is one of the premier rebounders in the country, evident on Monday night when he went toe-to-toe with Houston’s front court in a close home loss, grabbing 10 boards.
This matchup should show off his prowess on the glass against a Kansas team that is 63rd in the country in rebounding percentage.
In conference play, KU hasn’t been much of a threat on the offensive boards, ninth in OREB%, which should leave plenty of chances for Toppin, who is 17th in DREB%, to grab rebounds.
Kansas
Zeke Mayo UNDER 13.5 Points (-114)
The South Dakota State transfer has been up and down in his first season with the Jayhawks, and this matchup doesn’t suit him well with his primary role being a floor spacer (40% from three-point range).
Mayo has settled into a nice role in Big 12 play, scoring in double figures in seven of the last 10 games, but the Red Raiders funnel teams inside the arc at a high clip and force isolation situations. Texas Tech is allowing the 61st lowest three-point rate in the country with the 56th lowest assist rate.
I think the ball moves elsewhere on Saturday afternoon and Mayo stays under this total.
This is a huge tax to play the Jayhawks at home, who are still a tough out at home in front of the rocking Allen Fieldhouse crowd, but not as invincible as it the team seemingly has been in prior years.
KU has dropped two games this season at home, albeit close ones, and are 7-8-1 against the spread this season in home games as the betting market is wise to the perceived home court advantage.
That’s evident in this one with the Red Raiders possibly getting Willliams and McMillian back ahead of this one. Texas Tech’s spaced out offense should open up driving lanes and catch-and-shoot opportunities for the Red Raiders against the compact KU defense.
Grant McCasland said Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian have not been practicing with the team and needs to see them at full go to determine whether they’ll play at Kansas or not.
Added both players’ intent is to play.
“I get the sense they’re done watching.”— Nathan Giese (@NathanGiese) February 27, 2025
TTU is among the best three-point shooting teams in the country, 27th in the nation at nearly 38%, and do a great job at winning the shot volume battle with elite ball handling and offensive rebounding.
Meanwhile, the Jayhawks offense has been far worse than expectations this season, 75th in effective field goal percentage and struggled in isolation situations, which the Red Raiders’ defense forces at an incredibly high clip. KU is 17th in assist rate and bottom 10 in the country in free throw rate as the team is over-leveraged on moving the ball to generate advantage situations.
KU is a one-point favorite according to KenPom, yet the betting market is reacting to TTU being possibly short-handed by installing the team as four-and–a-half point underdogs. Even if the duo of Williams and McMillian sits, I think this is far too many points for Kansas to lay at home against an elite opponent.
PICK: Texas Tech +4.5 (-110, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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