Who doesn’t love a good underdog story?
One way to find underdogs come this time of year is to figure out which teams are underrated entering the 2025 men’s college basketball tournament.
Not all 5 seeds are created equally, after all, and we can use advanced data to remind us of that.
Here are the 10 squads (seeded 12 or lower) with the largest gap in their adjusted net rating (based on BartTorvik’s adjusted offense and defense metrics) and the historical net rating of teams with the same seed (since 2008).
Most Underrated Teams in the 2025 Tournament
Gonzaga Bulldogs (8 Seed, Midwest Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +26.8
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +17.0
- Differential: +9.8
The Gonzaga Bulldogs finished the season with a 25-8 record overall and a 5-5 Quad 1 record, but the advanced data sources really like this team.
Torvik and KenPom (both used in the selection process) rank Gonzaga 11th and 9th in the country, respectively, yet their in-season performance was good enough for just an 8 seed in the Midwest.
A net rating like this is comparable to a historical 2 seed’s strength.
A lot of their best showings came early in the season, and it seems like that has cooled off many from this team. But if they play at their peak, they could be real disruptors in the tournament.
Duke Blue Devils (1 Seed, East Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +37.2
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +28.7
- Differential: +8.5
There are some dominant teams in the nation this year, and that includes the Duke Blue Devils, who are second in adjusted net rating at Torvik and first (+38.2) at KenPom.
With Cooper Flagg expected back for the tournament, this Duke team looks primed for a deep run.
They’ve got top-five offensive and defensive metrics at both sources — the only team that can make that claim.
Houston Cougars (1 Seed, Midwest Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +36.8
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +28.7
- Differential: +8.1
Nearly as good as Duke at KenPom and better than Duke at Torvik, Houston can lay claim to top-10 offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency metrics at both sources, making only them and Duke (again, top-five in both) teams that can say that.
Of course, lingering in the second round is a potential matchup with Gonzaga.
Houston, though, is a sharpshooting team that should often win crucial the turnover battle (with top-25 turnover splits offensively and defensively).
BYU Cougars (6 Seed, East Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +26.3
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +18.6
- Differential: +7.7
Another Cougars squad looks underrated: BYU.
An offensive-centric team, BYU is a top-25 team at Torvik (14th) and KenPom (24th).
Since the start of February, BYU ranks 8th in adjusted offensive rating at Torvik and 13th overall in net rating while attempting half of their field goals from beyond the arc.
If they stay hot on offense, this team could be a dangerous one in the East region.
Missouri Tigers (6 Seed, West Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +26.2
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +18.6
- Differential: +7.6
With just a decimal away from matching BYU’s net rating, the Missouri Tigers make the list as another 6 seed.
Missouri is in the midst of a massive year-over-year turnaround and finished the year 22-11 (7-11 in Quad 1, meaning an undefeated record against all other opponents).
Missouri owns a top-five offense at Torvik and KenPom and is a menace at getting to the line and just an overall efficient shooting team (top-35 in both two-point and three-point field goal percentage).
Texas Tech Red Raiders (3 Seed, West Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +29.3
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +22.1
- Differential: +7.2
The Texas Tech Red Raiders own an overtime win over the Houston Cougars — on the road, no less.
The Red Raiders are sixth in adjusted offense by way of top-20 three-point shooting efficiency.
They also defend the three-point arc well, allowing the 29th-lowest frequency of three-point attempts to opponents to help pave their way to a top-35 adjusted defense.
Auburn Tigers (1 Seed, South Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +35.4
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +22.1
- Differential: +6.7
Another 1 seed here, given the outlier nature of the top teams in the nation this year, the Auburn Tigers look underrated compared to historical 1 seeds.
This is a top-12 team by adjusted offense and defense at Torvik and KenPom, making them a lethal team on either end of the floor.
No team had more Quad 1 games than Auburn (21). Kentucky (11-10) and Arizona (10-11) each had 21, but Auburn was a stellar 16-5 in those matchups.
Louisville Cardinals (8 Seed, South Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +23.7
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +17.0
- Differential: +6.7
The Louisville Cardinals’ redemption arc continues with a tournament berth.
They finished 8-24 last season (3-17 in the ACC); this year, they finished 27-7 overall and 18-2 in the ACC.
Louisville checks in with top-30 offensive and defensive metrics, making them a balanced team that likes to get up three-point attempts and has top-20 shooting splits from inside the arc.
Colorado State Rams (12 Seed, West Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +18.3
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +11.9
- Differential: +6.4
The Rams finished the year 25-9 overall but are 17-3 since the calendar flipped to 2025. Those three losses were all on the road to teams in the tournament.
In that 2025 sample, they’ve been the best three-point shooting team (41.5%), helping them to rank fifth in effective field goal percentage (58.7%) in the country.
Alabama Crimson Tide (2 Seed, East Region)
- Adjusted Net Rating: +31.3
- Historical Seed Net Rating: +25.3
- Differential: +6.0
The blazing fast Alabama Crimson Tide rate out as a top-six team overall at KenPom and Torvik and notably have played 19 Quad 1 games, fourth-most in the nation.
In those games, they’re 11-8 and didn’t drop a single game against non-Quad 1 opponents.
This is a top-tier offense that pushes the pace, gets to the line, and shoots well from inside and outside.
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