The players and teams whose next month could shape the MLB trade deadline

The MLB playoff odds at FanGraphs suggest half of the postseason field is relatively secure (six teams have a better than 85 percent chance of making it), and half of the non-contenders can accept their fate (nine teams have playoff odds in the single digits). A lot can happen in the next four months, but at the very least we can safely lump half the league into buyer and seller categories less than two months before the trade deadline.

It’s the other half of the league — the 15 teams stuck somewhere in between — that could determine just how robust the trade market becomes.

A few modest deals already have come together in the past week or so (Alexis Díaz to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Matt Thaiss to the Tampa Bay Rays, Sean Newcomb to the A’s), but last year’s trade market began to pick up meaningful steam in the first week of July. A similar timetable would put this season a month away from more meaningful deals.

Here are 12 teams and players whose next month could help define the July 31 deadline.

Milwaukee Brewers

Rhys Hoskins
First baseman

The Brewers made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons, but this year has been a fight simply to reach .500, and the Brewers’ 29.2 percent playoffs odds are modest (but also a meaningful improvement since late May). Meanwhile, Hoskins is having a strong bounce-back season at the plate (127 wRC+) and could be one of the biggest rental bats available if the Brewers decide to sell. Seven playoff contenders (the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants) have gotten below-average wRC+ from the first base position. Two others (the San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals) have been below average at DH. That’s a big market for a slugger like Hoskins. The Rays, should they sell, could find a similar market for first baseman Yandy Díaz, who’s been less productive than Hoskins but does have a substantial track record with a team option for 2026.

Miami Marlins

Sandy Alcantara
Starting pitcher

Of course the Marlins are going to be sellers at the deadline. They entered this season with only a 1.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, and their chances have now dropped to essentially zero. They should have a massive trade chip in Alcantara, a 29-year-old Cy Young Award winner who’s returned from Tommy John surgery with one year plus a team option left on his contract. Problem is, Alcantara’s been awful with an 8.47 ERA through 11 starts. The question isn’t whether the Marlins will play their way out of sell mode in the next month. It’s whether Alcantara will pitch his way back to elite trade chip status. Same thing applies to Chicago White Sox center field Luis Robert, who should be a massive chip if not for the fact he’s playing below replacement this season.

Toronto Blue Jays

Bo Bichette
Shortstop

The Blue Jays tried to build a winner. They spent on free agents, traded for a second baseman, and extended All-Star first basemen Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But, still, it’s taken a recent surge to get above .500, and their playoff odds are 43.1 percent, which is close to a season high. If the Blue Jays fall behind again, they’ll have to at least consider trading one of their cornerstone players. Starter Chris Bassitt and reliever Chad Green are also performing well in a walk year, but it’s Bichette who stands out as a key piece of a supposed-to-be-transcendent core who might instead become trade fodder on the way to yet another disappointing season. Bichette has rebounded quite a bit from his disappointing 2024 season. He could lift the Jays over the next month, or he could be traded in two months.

St. Louis Cardinals

Ryan Helsley
Closer

Helsley has been an obvious trade candidate since Opening Day. He’s an All-Star closer approaching free agency, and the Cardinals came into the season openly in rebuild mode. The last thing a rebuilding team needs is a walk-year closer. But the Cardinals are winning, and their run differential — ninth-best in the majors — suggests it’s not a fluke. So, now what? Helsley hasn’t been nearly as good as last year, but every contender would love to have Helsley’s 99 mph fastball in their bullpen. The contender that needs him most just might be the Cardinals.

Kansas City Royals

Seth Lugo
Starting pitcher

One of the feel-good stories of 2024, the Royals have maintained a winning record in 2025, but they’ve done so within a surprisingly deep AL Central. The Detroit Tigers have separated themselves atop the division, while the Royals, Cleveland Guardians and Twins have jockeyed for position in the wild-card race. Right now, the Royals are the lowest of that trio with a 36.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they can’t play their way firmly into the hunt, the Royals will have to consider Lugo a possible trade chip. He’s 35 years old with a player option for next season, meaning he’s no sure thing to be an important part of whatever’s next in Kansas City. What the Royals do over the next month-plus could determine whether last year’s AL Cy Young Award runner-up stays or goes.

Cincinnati Reds

Nick Martinez
Starting pitcher

The Reds made a one-year bet on Martinez and have been rewarded, though it’s not been enough to get them atop the NL Central. The Reds have a positive run differential — better than the built-to-contend Philadelphia Phillies — yet have a losing record, and the result is a 3.3 percent chance of making the playoffs. Martinez accepted a qualifying offer last fall and, at 34, he’s continued to thrive in the rotation. His strikeouts and velocity are modest, but he mixes pitches and avoids hard contact. The Reds can’t extend him another qualifying offer, and so might have to trade him to get any meaningful return on their investment. Reds outfielder Austin Hays and closer Emilio Pagán are also having good seasons with free agency up ahead.

Texas Rangers

Tyler Mahle
Starting pitcher

Mahle has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, delivering a 1.64 ERA for a team many expected to compete for the American League pennant. Mahle has done his part to make that happen. The bulk of the Rangers have not. Stuck in the middle of the AL West, the Rangers have a 24.4 percent chance of making the playoffs and might have to decide whether to sell high on Mahle or hope he can pitch them back into contention within a seemingly volatile division. (Other playoff odds in the AL West: Mariners 71.8, Astros 67.4.) The Rangers are built to win, and they won it all two years ago, but they’ve been as on-the-fence as it gets these first two months. If the Rangers sell, Mahle’s hot start could make him a hot commodity.

Tampa Bay Rays

Pete Fairbanks
Closer

For five years, the Rays always found a way. Despite a notoriously low payroll, they made the playoffs every year from 2019 to 2023, but when that streak ended last season, the Rays traded (or sold) nine players in the month of July. Playing right at .500 again this year (with ace Shane McClanahan again on the IL), the Rays have a 32 percent chance of making the playoffs and could be forced to sell again. That could mean mainstays like Fairbanks, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are on the trading block. Fairbanks’ strikeout numbers are down from his 2022 peak, but he’s otherwise having a typically strong season as the Rays’ primary closer. Picking up a team option for 2026 would mean basically doubling Fairbanks’ salary, which might not be in the budget for a cost-conscious organization like the Rays that’s been willing to trade away popular franchise players in the past.

Boston Red Sox

Aroldis Chapman
Closer

A pair of proven, 37-year-old closers were free agents last winter. Aroldis Chapman signed a one-year, $10.75 million deal with the Red Sox while Kenley Jansen left the Red Sox to sign a one-year, $10 million deal with the Angels. Similar contracts, wildly different results. While Jansen has struggled to maintain his elite standards, Chapman has been nearly as good as ever, still generating extreme velocity while excelling in basically every ninth-inning metric. He’s been exactly what the Red Sox needed to return to relevance, except the team as a whole hasn’t kept pace. There’s an argument to be made that the Red Sox should trade an outfielder no matter what — to open a spot for top prospect Roman Anthony — but if they continue to hover around .500, Boston could become the second team in three years to deal Chapman at the deadline. The last team to do it was the 2023 Royals, who got ace Cole Ragans in the deal.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Eugenio Suárez
Third baseman

The Diamondbacks were a sneaky NL pennant contender coming into the season. They had a deep rotation with a lot of interesting up-the-middle talent, and they seemed like the kind of team that might surprise some folks (and not for the first time). But the NL West is loaded, the Diamondbacks have been more solid than sneaky, and now Corbin Burnes is hurt. FanGraphs is giving them a 28 percent chance of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, Suárez is in his walk year, hitting a ton of home runs, and playing a position that could be filled by bringing back top prospect Jordan Lawlar. Suárez could be a player the Diamondbacks trade for a long-term asset without necessarily giving up on short-term ambition.

Atlanta Braves

Marcell Ozuna
Designated hitter

Look, the assumption here — and just about everywhere, it seems — is that the Braves eventually are going to get on a roll that makes the playoffs a foregone conclusion. And when they do, there’s just no way they’re going to trade away the second- or third-best DH in baseball. But two months into the season, they’re still a sub-.500 team with a 50-50 shot of making the playoffs. The Twins have far better playoff odds, and the lowly Washington Nationals moved ahead of the Braves in the standings this weekend. Ozuna, meanwhile, is approaching free agency while posting typically excellent offensive numbers, though he recently revealed he is playing through a hip injury. What if this Braves run to relevance never materializes? Wouldn’t Ozuna have to be on the trade block?

San Diego Padres

Michael King
Starting pitcher

Similar to the Braves, it’s hard to think of the Padres as potential sellers at the moment, but they too are getting roughly 50-50 playoff odds from FanGraphs, and in the past month their odds have dropped as low as 38.6 percent (after spiking as high as 65.4 percent). The NL wild-card race is a bit of a free-for-all at the moment, and the Padres are particularly interesting because of the significance of their soon-to-be free agents. King has a mutual option for next season, closer Robert Suarez has a player option, and both co-ace Dylan Cease and first baseman Luis Arraez are also approaching free agency. The Padres don’t look like sellers at the moment, but if this next month goes poorly, they have the assets to flood the trade market with incredibly valuable rentals.

(Top photo: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)

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