There’s hope! Ten SEC teams’ percent chance to chase College Football Playoff

The stat nerd has spoken.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly sets the industry standard for analytical preview content. His latest batch of metrics includes a look at SEC teams’ percentage chance of finishing the regular season 10-2 or better.

Why 10-2? Well, because of the theory that any SEC team that finishes 10-2 or better is a strong candidate to make the 12-team playoff.

A 9-3 record would give some SEC teams a chance at playoff qualification, but 10-2 is a golden ticket.

Connelly’s latest formula gives 10 SEC teams a 5% chance or better of finishing at least 10-2.

Strictly speaking, these percentages do not represent the chance that a team will make the playoff — only its chance of finishing 10-2 or better.

With that in mind, let’s review the percentage chance of SEC teams to finish 10-2 or better:

My take: Per Connelly’s metric, Alabama has the best chance of any SEC team to go 10-2 or better. My gut, which isn’t beholden to analytics, disagrees. The Crimson Tide’s schedule includes road games at Georgia and Auburn. My bigger reason to dial down this percentage, though, is the unproven starting quarterback.

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Texas (61%)

My take: With a loaded roster led by quarterback Arch Manning, I’d be tempted to make Texas my preseason No. 1 team. Nevertheless, this percentage seems spot-on. A schedule that includes road land mines at Ohio State, Georgia and Florida creates the possibility of Texas losing three or more games.

Georgia (61%)

My take: This percentage seems a touch high. Why? Like Alabama, I’m not sold on Georgia’s quarterback situation. Gunner Stockton looked the part of sufficient backup last season. Is he ready for a star turn? I’m unconvinced. The Bulldogs enjoy the benefit of playing at home against their toughest opponents: Texas, Alabama and Mississippi.

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My take: Count Ole Miss among my playoff sleepers. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels received oodles of playoff hype last summer and came up a victory short. In an overcorrection, the hype machine produced crickets for this Ole Miss squad. Quarterback Austin Simmons headlines my list of potential breakout performers, and although the roster experienced plenty of turnover, there’s enough talent and a favorable schedule to chase 10-2, making this a spot-on percentage.

Tennessee (33%)

My take: Connelly’s metric meter must like transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar a lot to give the Vols this much of a chance. Manageable though the schedule is, Tennessee lost a lot of production from its 2024 playoff team. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava added another hurdle in mid-April by speeding off to UCLA.

LSU (30%)

My take: I’d rank LSU inside the top 10 of my national championship contenders list. The Tigers boast a proven quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, plus talented receivers, and the nation’s No. 1-ranked transfer class, including newcomers who should elevate the defense. So, why do I say this percentage seems about right? Because LSU’s schedule includes Clemson, Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Mercy.

Florida (18%)

My take: Too high. Florida rivals Oklahoma in the toughest-schedule debate. The Gators are one of three SEC teams that will play 10 games against Power Four opponents. They’ll play seven games against teams that will be ranked in the preseason Top 25. And they weren’t particularly active in the transfer portal. I like quarterback DJ Lagway. Don’t like the chance of 10-2, though, with this schedule.

Auburn (13%)

My take: I’ll buy this one. Auburn’s two toughest opponents, Georgia and Alabama, will come to the Plains. Beat one, and there’s a lane to 10-2. The Tigers underachieved last season. They should improve on a 5-7 record. All the way to 10 wins? That’s a long shot, but there’s a chance. Say, about a 13% chance.

Oklahoma (9%)

My take: I agree with this percentage. This is what Florida’s ought to be, considering these two face the nation’s toughest schedules. Transfer quarterback John Mateer offers hope of improvement in Norman, but the schedule tamps down the odds of that improvement reaching 10-2.

Missouri (5%)

My take: Missouri lost a lot of offensive production. Former Penn State backup Beau Pribula stands first in line for the quarterback reins. How he fares will influence Missouri’s fate. Including bowl results, it won at least 10 games each of the past two seasons, so I’ll buy this 1-in-20 shot of going 10-2.

Notable by omission

Connelly did not list South Carolina or Texas A&M among his teams with at least a 5% chance of going 10-2 or better. Their percentages were not listed, along with Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. No objection on that final quartet, but I struggle to understand the Gamecocks and Aggies not checking in with at least a 5% chance of 10 wins. They combined for 17 victories last season.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

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